{"id":233672,"date":"2025-10-30T13:03:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T17:03:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233672"},"modified":"2025-10-30T14:25:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T18:25:14","slug":"forecast-trading-is-on-a-roll-trade-ideas-for-tomorrow-expirations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-trading-is-on-a-roll-trade-ideas-for-tomorrow-expirations\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Trading Is on a Roll, Trade Ideas for Tomorrow Expirations: Oct. 30, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Forecast trading is on a roll as investors, speculators, hedgers, arbitragers and market makers dive in to place orders. Indeed, yesterday\u2019s volumes totaled 2.874 million and we\u2019re up to 2.139 million so far today. As transactions have been trending higher, especially as they relate to the upcoming mayoral election in NYC and the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey as well as Fed rate decisions, we are poised to mark another YTD record north of Tuesday\u2019s 3.36 million<\/a> in the next few days. I offer some opinions below tied to data points that expire tomorrow.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baltic Dry Unlikely to Mark 12-Month High<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s Baltic Dry Index reading is unlikely to exceed 2,350, 2,425 and 2,500, which would mark fresh 12-month highs compared to the July peak of 2,258. The \u201cNos\u201d <\/a>at the three particular levels are going for $0.66, $0.72 and $0.77, prices that I consider to be undervalued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Euro CPI Likely to Arrive Near Estimates, As Usual  <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Euro Area\u2019s CPI has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to arrive near the median estimate and rarely does it miss or beat by more than 0.1%. Since tomorrow\u2019s consensus projection stands at 2.1%, attractive risk-reward trades, according to my framework, would be to buy the \u201cYeses\u201d at or below 1.9%<\/a> and \u201cNos\u201d at or above 2.2% at reasonable prices, because those levels require variances of 0.2% in either direction to lose money. The \u201cYeses\u201d at 1.8% and 1.9% are going for $0.83 and $0.96 while the \u201cNos\u201d at 2.2%, 2.3% and 2.4% are costing $0.83, $0.90 and $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Range Trade On China Freight<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A safe range trade in my opinion related to the China Containerized Freight Index is the \u201cYes\u201d <\/a>at 900 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 1,500, thresholds that are costing $0.97 and $0.98. 900 hasn\u2019t been breached all year while 1,500 was last exceeded in January. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Prices<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SORA Expected to Be About 1.17% By Participants <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Singapore Overnight Rate Average is expected to increase to about 1.17% according to the pricing in our prediction market. It is a wildly volatile indicator with huge swings; however, I find the risk-reward profile of the \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 1.2% attractive at $0.58, considering that the latest rate was 0.96 as of October 29 and the ten-day mean and median are at 1.15% and 1.16%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Singapore<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 30, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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