{"id":233612,"date":"2025-10-29T15:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T19:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233612"},"modified":"2025-10-30T06:16:57","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T10:16:57","slug":"fomc-msft-googl-meta-enough-for-one-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/fomc-msft-googl-meta-enough-for-one-day\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC, MSFT, GOOGL, META: Enough for One Day?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This afternoon contains perhaps the largest confluence of potentially market moving events that an investor could imagine.\u00a0 A meeting always has the potential to send the broad market up or down (sometimes in the same afternoon), while earnings from any single megacap tech stock can have an outsized influence on the capitalization-weighted indices that are dominated by that group of stocks.\u00a0 With three of them arriving at once, we could see some dramatic post-close swings in the individual stocks and key index futures.\u00a0 The key question will be whether they offset or amplify each other\u2019s moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Below is a brief visual reminder about the volatility that can ensue during Chair Powell\u2019s press conference.&nbsp; The chart is from the last FOMC day on September 17<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; We understandably traded in a narrow range prior to the 2:00 rate decision, but then we had an intraday swing of over 1% before finishing essentially unchanged on the day.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-index-intraday-september-17-th-2025\"><strong><em>SPX Index, Intraday, September 17<sup>th<\/sup> 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"686\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-79-1100x686.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233617 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-79-1100x686.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-79-700x437.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-79-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-79-768x479.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-79.png 1444w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/686;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Checking in on the individual stocks in question, none of the three that are due to report this afternoon have options pricing that reflects excessive nervousness.&nbsp; It seems more like a bit of modest, prudent caution, at least when we look at the data in the IBKR Probability Lab for options that expire on Friday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-msft-options-expiring-october-31-st-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for MSFT Options Expiring October 31<sup>st<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"738\" height=\"308\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-75.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233613 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-75.png 738w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-75-700x292.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-75-300x125.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 738px) 100vw, 738px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 738px; aspect-ratio: 738\/308;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-googl-options-expiring-october-31-st-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for GOOGL Options Expiring October 31<sup>st<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"312\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-78.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233616 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-78.png 731w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-78-700x299.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-78-300x128.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 731px) 100vw, 731px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 731px; aspect-ratio: 731\/312;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-meta-options-expiring-october-31-st-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for META Options Expiring October 31<sup>st<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"741\" height=\"312\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-76.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233614 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-76.png 741w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-76-700x295.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-76-300x126.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 741px) 100vw, 741px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 741px; aspect-ratio: 741\/312;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All three of the above charts for MSFT, GOOGL, and META respectively show peak probabilities slightly below the current market prices.&nbsp; The implied daily volatilities of 4.3%, 6.02%, and 5.95%, respectively, are roughly commensurate with these stocks\u2019 longer-term average post-earnings reactions, though we do see some difference from recent activity.&nbsp; MSFT rose +3.95% after its last report, GOOGL, which is notably sparse with guidance, rose only 1.02% and 1.68% after its last two reports, while META zoomed 11.25% after its last earnings.&nbsp; In short, MSFT is reflecting a rough status quo, GOOGL is pricing in the potential for a bit more volatility, while traders do not expect a repeat of META\u2019s recent moonshot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, SPX traders remain sanguine about the confluence of today\u2019s events, PLUS tomorrow\u2019s reports from AAPL and AMZN, PLUS the anticipated summit between President Trump and Premier Xi.&nbsp; The implied daily volatility of 1.15% for options expiring Friday might be considered a shade high compared to recent index moves, but not outrageously so.&nbsp; And as is now typical, the bias is to the upside:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-october-31-st-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring October 31<sup>st<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"741\" height=\"306\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-77.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233615 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-77.png 741w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-77-700x289.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-77-300x124.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 741px) 100vw, 741px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 741px; aspect-ratio: 741\/306;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This afternoon contains perhaps the largest confluence of potentially market moving events that an investor could imagine.\u00a0 A meeting always has the potential to send the broad market up or down (sometimes in the same afternoon), while earnings from any single megacap tech stock can have an outsized influence on the capitalization-weighted indices that are dominated by that group of stocks.\u00a0 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":222609,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-233612","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FOMC, MSFT, GOOGL, META: Enough for One Day?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This afternoon contains perhaps the largest confluence of potentially market moving events that an investor could imagine.\u00a0 A meeting always has the...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233612\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FOMC, MSFT, GOOGL, META: Enough for One Day? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This afternoon contains perhaps the largest confluence of potentially market moving events that an investor could imagine.\u00a0 A meeting always has the potential to send the broad market up or down (sometimes in the same afternoon), while earnings from any single megacap tech stock can have an 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