{"id":233601,"date":"2025-10-29T12:58:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T16:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233601"},"modified":"2025-10-29T14:16:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T18:16:39","slug":"forecast-volumes-posted-another-ytd-high-of-3-36-million-yesterday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-volumes-posted-another-ytd-high-of-3-36-million-yesterday\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Volumes Posted Another YTD High of 3.36 Million Yesterday: Oct. 29, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Forecast contracts posted another year-to-date (YTD) high in trading volumes of 3.36 million yesterday as enthusiasm regarding the NYC mayoral election and gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia drove an uptick in transactions. But it wasn\u2019t just politics that bolstered the participation, with open positions in October Fed Funds, which will be reconciled this afternoon, climbing up to 936,000. Meanwhile, today\u2019s volumes are already at 2 million, and tomorrow\u2019s commentary may feature the third day in a row of YTD highs. Below I offer some opinions tied to data points to be released tomorrow.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Range Bound Weekly Economic Index<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Weekly Economic Index has rarely dropped below the 1.4%, 1.6% 1.8% levels or rose above 2.8% and 3% in the past twelve months. And although it has been trending lower lately, a result of the government shutdown weighing on conditions, I believe tomorrow\u2019s print is poised to come in range-bound and won\u2019t surprise much. Against this backdrop I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 1.4%<\/a>, 1.6% and 1.8% attractive, as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at 2.8% and 3%. The thresholds are ranging from $0.88 to $0.97 in cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EU\u2019s GDP Hasn\u2019t Exceeded 0.4% In Over 3 Years<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The last time the EU\u2019s GDP print exceeded 0.4% was in 2022\u2019s second quarter and I don\u2019t envision a climb above that in tomorrow\u2019s report. The median estimate is at 0.1% and recent economic signals have pointed to improving, but at the same time, modest growth that doesn\u2019t support a 0.5% increase. Meanwhile, the indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to arrive near projections. For the reasons mentioned, I find the \u201crisk-reward profiles of the \u201cNos\u201d at 0.4%<\/a>, 0.65% and 0.9% attractive, and they\u2019re ranging from $0.77 to $0.95 in price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

No EU Recession by Year-End<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Improving conditions in the EU and a subdued chance that tomorrow\u2019s number or the figure from the fourth quarter would come in below 0 signal an attractive entry point for the \u201cNo\u201d at $0.87 in my opinion. For \u201cTeam No\u201d to lose here, GDP stats for both prints, reflecting 3rd and 4th quarter performances, must be negative, and the path for that is particularly narrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EU Unemployment Won\u2019t Reach Record Lows Tomorrow<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The EU\u2019s unemployment level is expected to remain unchanged at 6.3% and there\u2019s a very low chance in my view that tomorrow\u2019s number will breach the 6.1% statistic to the downside, which would be the lowest result on record. Recent economic data point to labor market softening, not strengthening, and this indicator has a subdued deviation rate. For those reasons, I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 5.6% and 5.8% attractive; they\u2019re going for $0.97 each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Near Certain That the ECB Will Hold Tomorrow<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A 98%<\/a> chance exists that the European Central Bank will hold rates steady tomorrow as the committee awaits more growth, employment and inflation reports to gauge the next appropriate steps for monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 29, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forecast contracts posted another year-to-date (YTD) high in trading volumes of 3.36 million, yesterday as enthusiasm regarding the NYC mayoral election and gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia drove an uptick in transactions. 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/ny-city-hall-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=233601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233601\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/226876"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=233601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=233601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=233601"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=233601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}