{"id":233345,"date":"2025-10-27T10:18:57","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T14:18:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233345"},"modified":"2025-10-27T11:07:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T15:07:07","slug":"forecast-contract-picks-with-wall-street-south","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/forecast-contract-picks-with-wall-street-south\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Picks With Wall Street South"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dive into the world of prediction markets with Wall Street South as we break down forecast contracts, from S&amp;P 500 bets to Bitcoin surprises and political futures. Learn how savvy investors are navigating volatility, AI-driven trends, and election odds to uncover hidden opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Forecast Contract Picks With Wall Street South\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=9d9t2-19a5b31-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-313\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 313<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hello everyone, and welcome to this edition of the Interactive Brokers IBKR Podcast. I&#8217;m Jose Torres, your Senior Economist, and today we&#8217;re going to be talking about forecast contract picks. If you listened to our earnings call for the third quarter, you know that forecast contracts have been a significant growth driver here at the firm.&nbsp;We currently have 8,232 open instruments listed\u2014up 27% from 6,480 at the end of June. Volumes have increased significantly, up 165% from last quarter, as more investors realize the opportunity these contracts represent. Today, I&#8217;m joined by a group of special investors who also happen to be personal friends of mine. From the Wall Street South networking group, we have the founders of the Wall Street South Group: Adam Lorraine and Douglas DeRosa. You can see both of them on one camera\u2014they&#8217;re together. We also have Vince Zo here. Vince, Adam, Doug\u2014hello.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vincent-randazzo-nbsp\"><strong>Vincent Randazzo<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hey Jose, thanks for having me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hey Jose, thank you for having us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-0\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Absolutely. Some quick bios: Vince is the founder and Chief Market Strategist at Viewright Advisors. Adam is co-founder of Wall Street South, of course, but he&#8217;s also the CEO at Dynamic Capital Holdings. Douglas is the co-founder at Evolv Digital Group.\u00a0Today, this is our first effort\u2014we&#8217;re going to be talking about forecast picks. A lot of our audience has seen them in articles and on social media, where some of our employees\u2014mostly me\u2014share opinions on which forecast contracts look attractive. We have a wide variety of selections, spanning from elections to financial market indices to government actions like the government shutdown, economic indicators, climate, and more.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today is October 22nd, and we&#8217;re seeing some volatility in markets. I&#8217;m still bullish on the S&amp;P 500. The forecast contracts I like are for December 31st\u2014I like the &#8220;Yes&#8221; contracts across those specific thresholds. I want to go to Vince now so he can share something he may like.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vincent-randazzo-nbsp-0\"><strong>Vincent Randazzo<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, thanks Jose. I think this is a really cool idea you guys have. I publish equity market research, analyzing cycles and specifically market breadth to help portfolio managers better understand exposure, risk, and reward. So this is really up my alley, and that&#8217;s why I&#8217;m going to stick to the equity side for my part of the discussion.\u00a0I&#8217;m going to focus on the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 contracts. I looked at the S&amp;P 500\u2014we&#8217;re currently around 6,700, down a little bit today. I&#8217;m looking at the December contracts, like you, on the &#8220;Yes&#8221; side. The 7,000 level, to me, represents pretty decent value, with a 35% probability according to what you guys have on your screen right now. Then there&#8217;s the 7,200, which is interesting too, but the probability drops sharply to 13%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think this aligns with how we view the cycle right now. The advance, which we think began in October of 2022, was only partially refreshed with the correction earlier this year. That would mean we&#8217;re in the later innings of the cycle. So it&#8217;s hard to expect a really explosive move up to that 7,200 level with so little time left in the year. But the 7,000 level makes sense\u2014it\u2019s a nice round number for people and for technicians. We know that the algos like those round numbers too, and the market has been incredibly resilient.\u00a0From a near-term perspective, I\u2019d say there are some signs of caution. We&#8217;ve seen some disconnects in breadth since about mid-September. But it doesn\u2019t look like a derailment of the cycle\u2014just a pullback, and then I think we rally into the end of the year.\u00a0For the NASDAQ 100, currently around 23,000, I\u2019d look at the December &#8220;Yes&#8221; contract at 26,400, which is priced at 31% right now. That, to me, is decent value and fits the same theme. We&#8217;ve seen a lot of resilience and tech leadership. It still looks like something with reasonable upside into the end of the year. So I think those are interesting. Again, I expect some choppiness in the near term, but that\u2019ll probably heal up those divergences and then take us off through the end of the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-1\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Terrific, Vince. Thanks. How about Doug? What do you think?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-0\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, I&#8217;m the person here who is not a market prognosticator or forecaster. So I was looking at it through the lens of political futures and our networking group. Probably 60% of our members have moved to South Florida post-COVID. Some of the reasons are SALT tax and other financially driven factors.\u00a0I was fascinated with the futures for the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and the mayoral race. They&#8217;re almost 90\/10 in favor of the Democratic nominee. That was fascinating. Obviously, those are Democratic strongholds, but it was interesting because the view is so polarizing. I think this is a precursor to the midterm elections next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ll have to see how this plays out. There are concerns in New York City about how that race may go, and we would certainly be the beneficiaries of that in South Florida with new people moving down.\u00a0If one takes the view that the current presidency is doing all the right moves and that it should be a Republican landslide going forward, given all the positive sentiment and news, it\u2019s interesting because everything in this election\u2014based on the results I\u2019m seeing from your audience\u2014is quite the opposite. It\u2019s very pro-Democrat. It\u2019s not a 50\/50 balance\u2014it\u2019s almost a proverbial landslide. So it\u2019ll be interesting to see how those elections play out, and through the lens of South Florida, how that plays out down here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, Doug. And for those folks who think one side is undervalued\u2014that the Republicans really do have a better chance\u2014let\u2019s say it\u2019s 10%, 20%, or 30%, that does turn into a dollar if the underdogs are correct.\u00a0So for the audience: if you think the GOP\u2019s odds in a particular election are too low, you can go in there and buy some &#8220;Yes&#8221; contracts at maybe 15, 20, or 25 cents. If they pull off an upset, you get a dollar back\u2014and you collect interest along the way. That interest shifts in proportion to the value of the contract, as well as shifts in the Fed funds rate.\u00a0Adam Lorraine, what do you got?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-1\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>All right, so I looked through all the contracts. The three that I found interesting, which aligns with what I\u2019ve been talking about, were the unemployment rate. I think that will be higher than what\u2019s posted. Not going to spend a lot of time going into it\u2014it\u2019s obviously AI-driven and partially what you\u2019re seeing now with the markets today, right? You see Texas Instruments, which is everything other than AI\u2014complete slowdown in everything: military, manufacturing, autos. You\u2019re seeing it in Netflix as well\u2014margins compressed by 20%. They missed EPS by a dollar. Maybe it\u2019s specific to them, I\u2019m not sure.\u00a0Also, the Bitcoin trade. My work has Bitcoin going to 90,000 at a minimum. And we were just talking about it earlier\u2014I think there are some real use case questions on Bitcoin. That doesn\u2019t mean Ethereum, Solana, Tether, and some of the others that have functional use cases won\u2019t still be around\u2014they\u2019ll be good. But I think Bitcoin is vulnerable, just technically and quantitatively. If you look at a monthly perspective\u2014and I\u2019ve posted it\u2014a move to 90,000 would not break the overall macro trend structure. But it would be pretty devastating from a short-term perspective.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then the last one we were just talking about is the nuclear one. The AI buildout is all based on the idea that trillions are going to be spent, and nobody really spends a lot of time talking about the energy and power consumption that\u2019s going to be needed. In fact, if you look at all the AI buildout talk, these trillions of dollars would require 73 nuclear plants to power those data centers. The fact is, there\u2019s not one\u2014not a single nuclear power plant\u2014being built right now. Even if you started one today, it would take about 10 years to complete. So if you want to throw some cold water on this, nobody wants to talk about the other side of it.\u00a0But the reality is, there are some real issues there when it comes to powering AI. I\u2019m not saying it\u2019s a pipe dream\u2014I think it\u2019s real, and there\u2019s substantive value there\u2014but we are at a pivot point in the cycle where I think we could see some dislocation in these markets. The S&amp;P 500, since it\u2019s such a behemoth and a store of value\u2014other than the 10 stocks that really run it\u2014all the rest are basically zombie stocks. Those stocks aren\u2019t going to go down a whole lot, and they\u2019re probably not going to go up a whole lot. So to really move the needle, you\u2019d have to get a disruption in the AI supply chain and that circular framework we\u2019ve talked about.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So those are the three I saw on the sheet that I thought were really good:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The unemployment rate ticking up to over 5%, probably early in 2026.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin being below the price\u2014I don\u2019t know what it was, maybe the bogey was 100,000.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>And nuclear being lower than expectations.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So those are the three I picked out of all of them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-2\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, the Bitcoin year-end $95,000 threshold\u2014the &#8220;No&#8221; is at 21 cents. So for those folks who are bearish on Bitcoin and perhaps agree with Adam in his analysis, you might want to go into the year-end $95,000 &#8220;No&#8221; at 21%. If Bitcoin does drop to 95,000, that 21% will go up to roughly 50%. If you have conviction and want to stay in the trade, you can stay until expiration and it\u2019ll pay out a dollar. Or you can get out at the money equivalent in forecast contracts and exit around 50%, which would be two and a half times your initial stake.\u00a0If you\u2019re bullish on Bitcoin and think that by year-end it can exceed 145,000, the &#8220;Yes&#8221; is at 15 cents at the moment.\u00a0Before we go\u2014we\u2019re going to keep these short, folks, and we\u2019ll be doing these every few weeks\u2014but before we finish up, I just want to go around with a little surprise forecast contract. Tell me &#8220;Yes&#8221; or &#8220;No.&#8221; Vince, I\u2019ll start with you: New York City Mayor Zoran Ani, 91% &#8220;Yes.&#8221; Are you on the &#8220;Yes&#8221; side or the &#8220;No&#8221; side?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vincent-randazzo-nbsp-1\"><strong>Vincent Randazzo<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m on the &#8220;No&#8221; side. I think that\u2019s interesting\u2014I\u2019ll take that. I think there\u2019s value there.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-3\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, you know they say that if Sliwa drops out, Cuomo\u2019s odds would jump up significantly. So for those folks, there could be value on the other side at around 9 cents\u2014that could become 20 or 30 cents before the election in about 15 days. Adam, what do you think on the Bitcoin contract? I know you say it\u2019s going to 90,000\u2014do you think there\u2019s value at 85,000 &#8220;No&#8221; for year-end at 11 cents?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-2\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s tough. I wouldn\u2019t take that bet, only because 90 is the number I\u2019m targeting. So I probably wouldn\u2019t take that unless you saw some sort of crack in my thesis. Whether it\u2019s meaningful or not, my view is that this surge in quantum computing\u2014it\u2019s not a question of if quantum breaks Bitcoin, it\u2019s a question of when. That\u2019ll always be an overhang going forward. Bitcoin investors will have to sleep at night wondering if this is the morning they wake up and Google says they\u2019ve cracked the code with their quantum chip\u2014and then it gaps open at a thousand dollars. But not to get bogged down in it\u2014I wouldn\u2019t take that one.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-4\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Okay, Doug. Gasoline prices have been down sharply, partly due to significant oil production from the Trump administration, deregulation, and more incentives to drill. As of the week ending October 19th, gasoline prices were $3.02 on average across the country. Do you think by year-end it\u2019ll be above $3 at 66 cents or below at 34 cents?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-3\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Adam is saying below. I\u2019ll say it depends on where you sit with the recession, right? We\u2019ve been kicking this recession idea around. Employment gains have been slow, so where do we sit with that lens? Not to be political, but I don\u2019t see a lot of \u201cdrill, baby drill\u201d going on currently. I think the market has pretty much held firm for the last year. So I would probably say it trades a little bit lower from here, but not aggressively lower. The macro environment will determine that.\u00a0I\u2019ll go back to Vince\u2019s question though\u2014I\u2019d like to answer that. I think, again, this is not taking a certain side, but the biggest crisis our country faces is affordable housing. It\u2019s in South Florida, it\u2019s in New York City. And I really think that\u2019s what voters will be voting on\u2014affordability. That is a large component of people\u2019s income in New York City and South Florida. It\u2019s something that, as an agenda politically, we need to tackle as a country because it\u2019s squeezing a lot of people margin-wise each month. So I think that\u2019s probably the main reason why people will vote for Malani. There you go\u2014I took a stand there.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-5\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And you know what\u2014we\u2019ll save this for next time, but I may ask you about housing starts and building permits, construction levels, if those are going to rise. I\u2019ll stay with you, Doug, for our last question because you\u2019ve been liking the election themes. For the midterms, the Democrats are at 56% for the House in terms of having a majority, and the Republicans are at 73% for the Senate. So just to reiterate, folks: there\u2019s a 56% chance the Democrats return as the majority party in the House, and a 73% chance the Republicans maintain control of the Senate. What do you like there, Doug\u2014first in the House and then in the Senate?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-4\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sure. Personally, I\u2019m a big proponent of national security. I think as a country, if you\u2019re not secure and safe, you can\u2019t coexist or exist globally or domestically. So I think that really is\u2014and that\u2019s obviously a strong Republican footprint and thesis that Republicans live by. But with that said, I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s resonating with voters, given what I said earlier about those three elections currently. So I do think there\u2019s a great chance the Republicans probably lose a lot of ground in the midterms.\u00a0I think the economic challenges people are facing\u2014I still don\u2019t see costs going down significantly. My Jersey Mike\u2019s sub is still offensively expensive. Jersey Mike\u2019s\u2014don\u2019t take that personally, I love your product! But I just think things are not as inexpensive as they were six months ago, and people will vote with their wallets. A year from now, people will say, \u201cYou know what? I like where we\u2019re going from a national security perspective, but I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s really bettering me from my personal spending or checkbook.\u201d And I think people will probably vote more based on their personal economics. And I just don\u2019t think those are really going in favor of a lot of people.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-6\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, an interesting thing there, Doug\u2014and a trade I\u2019d like to point out: if you buy the \u201cYes\u201d for the Democrats in the House at 56 cents and the \u201cYes\u201d for the Democrats in the Senate at 27 cents, as long as they win one or the other, you\u2019ll still make a dollar back\u201456 plus 27. But if they take control of both chambers, then you would get $2 back. So for those folks who think the Democrats are going to have a strong showing in the midterms, that could be a potential trade they\u2019d like to take.\u00a0How about you, Vin? What do you think about the midterm elections? I know you\u2019re more of a stock market and financial market technician, but these prediction markets are broad, and sometimes opportunities arise in areas we\u2019re not necessarily experts in, but we may want to dabble in.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vincent-randazzo-nbsp-2\"><strong>Vincent Randazzo<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I think this one\u2019s tied to inflation, honestly. Like Doug said earlier, people kind of vote on that. If we do see inflation stay sticky and start to see signs of a slowdown, like Adam was pointing to on the jobs front, then that could be a recipe for a surprise loss of the Senate. So I think that trade makes sense to me. Again, not picking sides\u2014I\u2019m totally apolitical\u2014but I think that could make some sense.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-7\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Last question to Adam\u2014without the political conversation getting too boring, I\u2019m going to tilt over to Fed rate cuts, if I may. I know Adam likes to talk about that. We\u2019ve had many conversations about the Fed. What are you thinking for October? Pretty much in the bag at 96%. December, though, is only 83% for a 25 basis point reduction. What are your thoughts there in terms of rate cuts into year-end? And the next question I\u2019ll ask after you answer the first one is: what do you think about rate cuts next year?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-5\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sure. I\u2019d say that if I\u2019m correct on my unemployment call\u2014and we\u2019ll have to see how that plays out\u2014then the Fed is going to have to try to counter that with rate cuts, right? On the one hand. And then on the other hand, if inflation stays sticky and costs continue to hang around, then they\u2019re going to be conflicted. But I think at the end of the day, you\u2019re starting to see a little bit of slowdown creeping in. Things aren\u2019t as strong as a lot of people think they are. And I don\u2019t think things are going to fall apart\u2014I just think there\u2019s this digestion period we\u2019re going to have to go through as AI adoption and integration starts to roll out. And also, just from an economic cycle standpoint, we\u2019re kind of due for a little bit of a contraction, even though the Fed doesn\u2019t really allow that to happen because they\u2019re always trying to micromanage it.\u00a0So to answer your question: yeah, I think they probably should have cut 50 basis points last meeting. So I think the next one\u2019s in the bag, as you said. The December one, even though it\u2019s questionable, I\u2019d say that\u2019s probably in all likelihood. And then\u2014I\u2019m not sure\u2014when is Powell done? March, right?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-8\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>May, I think.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-6\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>May, okay. So he\u2019s got a couple more. He wants to protect his legacy\u2014he doesn\u2019t want to go out on a bad note. So he\u2019ll probably fall in line with the market and what the market wants. The market wants rate cuts, Trump wants rate cuts\u2014everybody wants rate cuts. He\u2019s probably behind the curve. So I\u2019d say there are probably two to three more consecutive rate cuts in the bag. Whether that\u2019s good or bad and how that\u2019ll play out with the bond market and the inner workings of that\u2014and whether that\u2019ll actually bring rates down\u2014is another question. But for the foreseeable future, I\u2019d say we\u2019re probably in for three or four rate cuts, especially if the jobs picture continues to be weak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-9\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah. So it sounds like you love the December 2026 unemployment contract at 4.0% \u201cYes.\u201d That\u2019s only 26 cents. So you just need a modest uptick in unemployment\u2014then that 26 cents becomes a dollar at expiry. Any opinions, Adam, on who\u2019s going to be the next Fed Chair? We have Hassid at 34%, Waller at 19%, and Warsh at 11%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-7\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Probably Waller. Warsh is probably a little too hawkish for Trump. I think they\u2019ve had some good discussions with Waller. It looks like Besson is going to be the guy that makes the recommendation, and then Trump will follow his lead. And to that point, I think that\u2019s one of the reasons Trump has toned down the tariff rhetoric. I think Besson\u2019s got his ear and said, \u201cLook, sir, you can\u2019t be hammering China with tariff talk because the market doesn\u2019t like it.\u201d That\u2019s why he\u2019s been pretty vague about how he\u2019s going to respond to the rare earth hoarding and whether he\u2019s going to have the meeting with GE in a couple of weeks.\u00a0I guess that\u2019s probably a good thing, but at some point, he\u2019s going to have to address that. We\u2019ll see whether they have the meeting or not and how he addresses the tariffs. The market has that built in at some point\u2014we\u2019re going to have to see what the reaction function is.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-10\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Terrific. I wanted to ask Vin about interest rates, but I promised to keep it short, so I\u2019ll ask that question next time. Vince Zo, Doug DeRosa, Adam Lorraine, Wall Street South\u2014thank you all. We\u2019re going to wrap because we\u2019ll all be at the Hilton in West Palm Beach later this evening for a cocktail dinner. I look forward to seeing you all. Thank you very much, Vince.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vincent-randazzo-nbsp-3\"><strong>Vincent Randazzo<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, Jose.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-douglas-derosa-and-adam-lorraine-nbsp-8\"><strong>Douglas DeRosa and Adam Lorraine<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you, Jose. Thanks, guys.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-11\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Doug, thank you. Adam, thank you. I look forward to seeing you soon, and we\u2019ll do this again next time. Hope you all had fun. 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