{"id":233268,"date":"2025-10-23T12:48:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T16:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233268"},"modified":"2025-10-23T15:09:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T19:09:43","slug":"forecast-contract-opinion-bar-is-too-high-for-tomorrows-special-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contract-opinion-bar-is-too-high-for-tomorrows-special-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinion: Bar Is Too High for Tomorrow\u2019s Special CPI: Oct. 23, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The bar is elevated for tomorrow\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI), in my opinion, as I\u2019m anticipating a lighter-than-expected result rounded to 3% for both the overall gauge and its core counterpart, driven by softening housing charges. The consensus is a loftier 3.1%. Against this backdrop, there is a mix of attractive risk-reward forecast trades related to both segments. For the headline figure, the \u201cYes\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856682%7C20251201%7C2.7%7CSeptember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.7%<\/a> and the \u201cNo\u201d at 3.4% are undervalued, in my view, at $0.96 and $0.92.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"97\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-Oct-23-FT-1100x97.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233272 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-Oct-23-FT-1100x97.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-Oct-23-FT-700x62.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-Oct-23-FT-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-Oct-23-FT-768x68.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-Oct-23-FT.jpg 1335w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/97;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"507\" height=\"526\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233273 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-2.jpg 507w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-2-300x311.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 507px) 100vw, 507px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 507px; aspect-ratio: 507\/526;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-core-cpi-trades\"><strong>Core CPI Trades<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The core number offers opportunities as well, and I believe the \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.7% and 2.8%, which range between $0.93 and $0.98 in price are undervalued. Additionally, I don\u2019t envision a beat, so I like the \u201cNo\u201d at 3.1%, which costs $0.81. My unrounded estimate for the core figure is 2.97%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-3-Core-CPI-1100x102.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233274 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-3-Core-CPI-1100x102.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-3-Core-CPI-700x65.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-3-Core-CPI-300x28.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-3-Core-CPI-768x71.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-3-Core-CPI.jpg 1336w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"502\" height=\"530\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-4-.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233275 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-4-.jpg 502w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-4--300x317.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 502px) 100vw, 502px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 502px; aspect-ratio: 502\/530;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-not-expecting-a-huge-plunge-or-surge-in-canada-s-new-home-prices\"><strong>Not Expecting a Huge Plunge or Surge in Canada\u2019s New Home Prices<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s new housing prices haven\u2019t posted a gain since February and have declined for 5 consecutive months. Meanwhile, I\u2019m expecting a modest recovery to 0.2% and in light of my projection I like the risk-reward profiles of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=787272475%7C20251024%7C-0.5%7CSeptember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at -0.5% and -0.3% which are going for $0.96 and $0.84 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 0.5%, priced at $0.97. There is a wide range of outcomes for this specific print, but a significant plunge or surge isn\u2019t probable in my view. Real estate has been weak and heavy price declines have already occurred. A reading between -0.2% and +0.3% is the most likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"529\" height=\"520\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-5-canada-housing.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233276 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-5-canada-housing.jpg 529w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-5-canada-housing-300x295.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 529px) 100vw, 529px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 529px; aspect-ratio: 529\/520;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-reiteration-of-the-familiar-umich-revision-trade\"><strong>Reiteration of The Familiar UMich Revision Trade<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This month\u2019s University of Michigan (UMich) initial US Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 55; however, our forecast contracts are tied to the final release, which is due tomorrow. Meanwhile, the revision history, or the difference between the preliminary and complete readings are particularly modest, with the average and median in absolute terms standing at 0.95 and 0.70. Against this backdrop, I find the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20251024%7C56%7COctober%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 56 attractive because it costs $0.70 and my pricing model shows that it should be at $0.80. The \u201cYes\u201d at 52 and \u201cNo\u201d at 58 are also undervalued in my view at $0.96, requiring adjustments of historic proportion to lose money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"95\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-6-consumer-sentiment-1100x95.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233277 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-6-consumer-sentiment-1100x95.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-6-consumer-sentiment-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-6-consumer-sentiment-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-6-consumer-sentiment-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-6-consumer-sentiment.jpg 1339w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/95;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"513\" height=\"448\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-7-consumer-sentiment.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233278 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-7-consumer-sentiment.jpg 513w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture-7-consumer-sentiment-300x262.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 513px; aspect-ratio: 513\/448;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 23, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bar is elevated for tomorrow\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI), in my opinion, as I\u2019m anticipating a lighter-than-expected result rounded to 3% for both the overall gauge and its core counterpart, driven by softening housing charges.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-233268","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Contract Opinion: 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