{"id":233234,"date":"2025-10-23T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233234"},"modified":"2025-10-24T03:35:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T07:35:53","slug":"airlines-keep-flying-as-congress-keeps-fighting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/airlines-keep-flying-as-congress-keeps-fighting\/","title":{"rendered":"Airlines Keep Flying as Congress Keeps Fighting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The U.S. government has been shut down since October 1, with no end in sight. This is the first shutdown since 2019, when political gridlock over how to fund President Donald Trump\u2019s border wall kept federal doors closed for a record 34 days. (Spoiler alert: No funding deal was reached, prompting Trump to reallocate Department of Defense funds to pay for the wall.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This time, the pain is real for many everyday Americans. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are either furloughed or working without pay. National parks are operating under limited access. Certain home loans aren\u2019t getting to new homebuyers.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And at airports across the country, travelers are encountering longer security lines, delayed flights and air traffic control shortages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But for investors, especially those with an eye on airlines, the story might not be as grim as it looks on the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Airline Stocks Soared During Last Shutdown<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s rewind to December 2018 and January 2019, when the government endured the longest shutdown in its history. Some 800,000 workers went without paychecks, and an estimated $3 billion were shaved off GDP<\/a> in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet Wall Street told a different story. An index of major airline stocks actually rose<\/em> nearly 15%, outperforming the market. Southwest Airlines was the top performer, soaring close to 20%. Even though flights were delayed, investors understood that Americans weren\u2019t going to stop flying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Airline<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Granted, inbound international travel to the U.S. is expected to decline about 6% this year.<\/a> But domestic travel\u2014the bread and butter of most U.S. carriers\u2014is still growing nearly 2% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Business travel appears to be rebounding too. A recent Discover Global Network survey found that 74% of companies consider travel essential to their operations, and more than half plan to increase business travel in the coming year.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Airline Resilience<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since the shutdown began, air traffic controllers and TSA agents have been working without pay. Many are calling in sick, leading to longer lines and more flight disruptions. Controller shortages are affecting cities from Boston and Philadelphia to Houston and Dallas. Nashville International alone saw over 40,000 passengers delayed or stranded<\/a> in a single weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think the takeaway here is that, even under stress, the commercial aviation system keeps running. I\u2019ve been on flights during past shutdowns, and they\u2019ve always been business-as-usual. Airlines have learned to operate through turbulence, be it a pandemic, fuel price spikes or political gridlock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Delta Targeting High-Net Worth Customers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

No carrier embodies this resilience better, perhaps, than Delta Air Lines. On its Q3 earnings call, Delta executives emphasized the airline\u2019s focus on the premium traveler\u2014the business class passenger, the frequent flyer, the high-net-worth leisure customer.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not trying to be everything to everyone,\u201d Delta President Glen Hauenstein said. \u201cOur exposure to a higher-income cohort has enhanced our relative position versus carriers catering to a more stressed, lower- to middle-income environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That strategy appears to be paying off. Delta\u2019s revenues associated with premiere seating jumped 9% year-over-year last quarter, handily outpacing growth in its main cabin. CEO Ed Bastian recently told CNBC that operations remain \u201csmooth,\u201d<\/a> adding that it would take several more days of political stalemate before he expects any significant impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The World\u2019s Fleet Expected to Double in Size by 2044<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If we zoom out beyond Washington\u2019s dysfunction, I believe the long-term picture for global aviation is nothing short of extraordinary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Airbus\u2019s Global Market Forecast, the world\u2019s passenger and freighter fleet is expected to double<\/em> over the next two decades,<\/a> from 24,700 aircraft today to nearly 50,000 by 2044, adding more than 43,000. That growth will be fueled by the rise of the global middle class\u2014an estimated 1.5 billion new travelers, primarily from Asia and the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Demand<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Even if mature markets like the U.S. grow at a slower pace, international and regional traffic flows are set to explode. Airbus forecasts annual passenger growth of 8.9% in India and 8.5% in emerging Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People Will Continue to Travel<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

During the 2019 shutdown, airline revenues dipped slightly due to staffing and weather issues, but the industry quickly recovered. Even Southwest, which reported a $10\u2013$15 million revenue hit, went on to post record first-quarter sales once the government reopened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, airlines are even better equipped. Their balance sheets are stronger, their loyalty programs more profitable and their premium seats in higher demand than ever before. While the shutdown may temporarily impact operations, it could also create attractive entry points for long-term investors who recognize that air travel is a secular growth story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re of a certain age, you know that shutdowns come and go. Congress will eventually strike a deal, government workers will be paid and the headlines will move on. But people will keep flying because the desire to explore, connect and move freely is hardwired into human nature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted October 20, 2025 – Airlines Keep Flying as Congress Keeps Fighting<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about us, shoot us an email to <\/em><\/strong>info@usfunds.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a> with the subject line AIRLINES.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the links above, you will be directed to a third-party website. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of about 500 U.S. companies across 11 sectors. The NYSE Arca Airline Index is an equal-dollar weighted index that tracks the price performance of major U.S. and international airline companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (09\/30\/2025): Southwest Airlines Co., Delta Air Lines Inc., Airbus SE.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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