{"id":233184,"date":"2025-10-22T12:54:52","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T16:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233184"},"modified":"2025-10-22T14:45:19","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T18:45:19","slug":"forecast-trade-ideas-expiring-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trade-ideas-expiring-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Trade Ideas Expiring Tomorrow: Oct. 22, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index has only fallen beneath 2% less than a handful of times this year (see chart below) but the \u201cYes\u201d at that threshold costs just <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=813720010%7C20251023%7C2%7COctober%2018,%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$0.41<\/a>. It\u2019s significantly undervalued, in my opinion, alongside the 1.8% and 1.6% levels, which are going for $0.75 and $0.90. There\u2019s no indication of a significant slowing in economic conditions that warrants a huge drop over seven days from 2.51% to 2% that would caused \u201cTeam Yes\u201d to lose money here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"702\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/1-oct-22-FT-1100x702.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233188 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/1-oct-22-FT-1100x702.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/1-oct-22-FT-700x447.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/1-oct-22-FT-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/1-oct-22-FT-768x490.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/1-oct-22-FT.jpg 1369w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/702;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"504\" height=\"539\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/2-oct-22-FT.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233189 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/2-oct-22-FT.jpg 504w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/2-oct-22-FT-300x321.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 504px) 100vw, 504px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 504px; aspect-ratio: 504\/539;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-short-strangle-idea-for-japan-s-cpi\"><strong>Short Strangle Idea for Japan\u2019s CPI<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m expecting Japan\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase 2.5% year over year in September and reach a level of 112.24. I believe the \u201cYeses\u201d below that threshold are undervalued as well as the \u201cNos\u201d above that with the exception of 112.4 because an unchanged 2.7% y\/y result from August is possible and would land the figure at 112.5 after rounding. Meanwhile, a highly unlikely 2.3% y\/y print or under would be required for the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=808613998%7C20251023%7C112%7CSeptember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d at 112 to lose while a huge beat of 3.1% would drive a loss for the \u201cNo\u201d at 112.8. For those reasons I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d from 110.4 to 112 attractive as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at 112.8 and 113.2. The thresholds range from $0.64 to $0.95 in cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"94\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/3-oct-22-FT-1100x94.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233190 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/3-oct-22-FT-1100x94.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/3-oct-22-FT-700x60.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/3-oct-22-FT-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/3-oct-22-FT-768x65.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/3-oct-22-FT.jpg 1341w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/94;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"511\" height=\"654\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/4-oct-22-FT.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233191 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/4-oct-22-FT.jpg 511w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/4-oct-22-FT-300x384.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 511px) 100vw, 511px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 511px; aspect-ratio: 511\/654;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hong-kong-cpi-is-volatile\"><strong>Hong Kong CPI Is Volatile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hong Kong\u2019s CPI is volatile and carries an elevated deviation rate. I favor going wide for tomorrow\u2019s print against that backdrop. The 1.2% y\/y median estimate represents an increase from 1.1% in the previous print. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll consists of a narrow range sporting a minimum of 1.1% and a maximum of 1.3%. In light of these dynamics, I find the risk-reward profiles of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=725452893%7C20251023%7C0.5%7CSeptember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 0.5% and the \u201cNos\u201d at 1.7%, 2% and 2.3% attractive. They are currently priced between $0.95 and $0.97.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/5-hong-kong-oct-22-1100x102.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233192 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/5-hong-kong-oct-22-1100x102.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/5-hong-kong-oct-22-700x65.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/5-hong-kong-oct-22-300x28.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/5-hong-kong-oct-22-768x71.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/5-hong-kong-oct-22.jpg 1341w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"525\" height=\"663\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/6-hong-kong-oct-22.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233193 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/6-hong-kong-oct-22.png 525w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/6-hong-kong-oct-22-300x379.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 525px; aspect-ratio: 525\/663;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-singapore-s-cpi-almost-certainly-positive\"><strong>Singapore\u2019s CPI Almost Certainly Positive<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Singapore\u2019s CPI is almost certainly going to print a positive number considering that the median estimate is at 0.6% amidst a minimum and maximum projection of 0.3% and 0.7% according to the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 15 forecasters. I find the risk-reward profile of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=725452887%7C20251023%7C0%7CSeptember%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 0% attractive; it\u2019s priced at $0.96. There\u2019s no indication of the nation\u2019s inflationary pressures falling that steeply recently, especially as growth has been impressively strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"100\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-3-singapore-1100x100.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233194 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-3-singapore-1100x100.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-3-singapore-700x64.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-3-singapore-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-3-singapore-768x70.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-3-singapore.jpg 1331w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/100;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bank-of-korea-likely-to-hold\"><strong>Bank of Korea Likely to Hold<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of Korea is likely to hold rates steady at tomorrow\u2019s meeting, although there is a modest chance that the monetary policy authority will cut. Indeed, there\u2019s an <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=798491013%7C20251022%7C3%7COctober%2023,%202025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">80%<\/a> approximate probability of an unchanged benchmark, roughly 18% odds of a 25-basis point reduction amidst a 0% possibility of a hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"104\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/7--1100x104.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233195 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/7--1100x104.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/7--700x66.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/7--300x28.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/7--768x73.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/7--1536x145.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/7--2048x194.jpg 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/104;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"506\" height=\"450\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/lst-pix.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-233196 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/lst-pix.jpg 506w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/lst-pix-300x267.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 506px) 100vw, 506px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 506px; aspect-ratio: 506\/450;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 22, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index has only fallen beneath 2% less than a handful of times this year (see chart below) but the \u201cYes\u201d at that threshold costs just $0.41.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":233187,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-233184","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Trade Ideas Expiring Tomorrow: Oct. 22, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Dallas 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