{"id":233149,"date":"2025-10-22T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233149"},"modified":"2025-10-23T04:00:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T08:00:53","slug":"canadas-inflation-picked-up-but-rate-cut-odds-dropped","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/canadas-inflation-picked-up-but-rate-cut-odds-dropped\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s Inflation Picked Up, But Rate Cut Odds Dropped"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Stronger September inflation caught forecasters off guard, but markets took it in stride\u2014and bets on Bank of Canada cuts cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-s-going-on-here\"><strong>What\u2019s going on here?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada\u2019s September&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/finimize.com\/glossary\/inflation\">inflation<\/a>&nbsp;reading surprised economists, with&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/finimize.com\/glossary\/consumer\">consumer<\/a>&nbsp;prices rising 0.1% when a slight dip was widely expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-does-this-mean\"><strong>What does this mean?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Annual inflation accelerated to 2.4%, topping both last month\u2019s figure and forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held firm at 3.2%, and the seasonally-adjusted CPI clocked its fastest monthly jump in over a year. Most of the uptick came from higher grocery and energy bills, while categories like shelter stayed pretty subdued. Despite the headline beat, Canadian bonds and the loonie barely moved, showing that investors saw little reason for knee-jerk reactions\u2014especially since underlying inflation stayed close to the Bank of Canada\u2019s comfort zone. Even so, traders have scaled back their bets on rate cuts from the central bank this year, with expectations cooling for a policy change at October\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-should-i-care\"><strong>Why should I care?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>For markets:<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;<em>Markets shrug off headline heat.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets appeared unfazed by the headline inflation surprise, thanks to steady underlying figures and softening housing costs. Still, traders slashed their expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut by year-end\u2014odds of an October move fell from 76% to just 65%, and now markets are penciling in less than one full 0.25% cut by December. That\u2019s a sharp reversal from early-year predictions of multiple cuts\u2014so investors are keeping a close eye on upcoming data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>The bigger picture:<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;<em>Inflation\u2019s persistence keeps policymakers on edge.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>September\u2019s inflation jump is a reminder that Canada\u2019s price pressures haven\u2019t fully cooled. Even as core inflation stays contained, climbing food and energy costs keep consumers and policymakers wary. While some analysts say the market may be reading too much into one hot month, the Bank of Canada now looks more likely to hold steady and await further signs before making any moves\u2014a stance global investors will be watching closely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted October 22, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/finimize.com\/content\/canadas-inflation-picked-up-but-rate-cut-odds-dropped\">Canada\u2019s Inflation Picked Up, But Rate Cut Odds Dropped<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stronger September inflation caught forecasters off guard, but markets took it in stride\u2014and bets on Bank of Canada cuts cooled.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1401,"featured_media":223605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13597],"class_list":{"0":"post-233149","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-finimize"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canada\u2019s Inflation Picked Up, But Rate Cut Odds Dropped<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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