{"id":233139,"date":"2025-10-21T13:05:17","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T17:05:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=233139"},"modified":"2025-10-22T03:29:47","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T07:29:47","slug":"all-that-glitters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/all-that-glitters\/","title":{"rendered":"All That Glitters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>(Two theme songs today: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/7VKp58eHWdU\">Rolling Stones<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Hn2oPN1cDQg\">Shirley Bassey<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We haven\u2019t written much about gold and silver recently, and that\u2019s on me.&nbsp; I\u2019ve been meaning to write pieces about precious metals on various days, but then something came up on each of them.&nbsp; Many investors and active traders clearly have been participating in the huge run-ups that each of those metals have experienced recently and today can\u2019t be a pleasant one for those who have been chasing the rapid moves higher.&nbsp; As the chart below shows, gold futures have been on quite a tear over the past three months (and more), while silver futures went parabolic recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-months-front-month-futures-in-nbsp-gold-red-green-daily-candles-silver-blue-line\"><strong><em>3-Months, Front-Month Futures in&nbsp; Gold (red\/green daily candles), Silver (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"942\" height=\"586\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-31.png\" alt=\"3-Months, Front-Month Futures in\u00a0 Gold (red\/green daily candles), Silver (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-233140 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-31.png 942w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-31-700x435.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-31-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-31-768x478.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 942px) 100vw, 942px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 942px; aspect-ratio: 942\/586;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s significant declines in gold and silver (-5% and -7%, respectively, as I type this) do not necessarily puncture the bull market narratives behind those commodities, but they once again heir &nbsp;out the risks of chasing sharp upward moves, particularly those that become parabolic.&nbsp; We have written before about how unpredictable those moves can become, particularly because parabolic moves often <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/parabolic-charts-mean-someone-is-in-pain\/?query=parabolic&amp;query_id=AO1zmlJxSzKeiaVK-o07ww&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=AO1zmlJxSzKeiaVK-o07ww\">indicate that some market participants are in real pain. <\/a>The problem is that when their malady is cured, at least temporarily, the main impetus for the parabola is removed, and those who chased it are left long without a natural buyer.&nbsp; That means that the supply\/demand calculus changes abruptly and with no warnings.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/economy\/how-an-epic-short-squeeze-drove-silver-s-first-record-in-45-years\/ar-AA1OrwX4?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">numerous news reports<\/a> about a global short squeeze in silver, but when it became clear that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxempire.com\/forecasts\/article\/silver-xag-forecast-london-supply-surge-sparks-selloff-as-bulls-head-for-exit-door-1556128\">supply now met the demand<\/a>, the market dynamics reversed.&nbsp; Actually, we saw a bit of a sell-off in metals on Friday, but dip buyers stepped in yesterday as if on cue.&nbsp; This is where trading dynamics fall victim to larger considerations of supply and demand.&nbsp; This is where our admonition from last week comes into play:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>It is very difficult to know if a wave of selling is part of the normal flow, a rogue wave, or a shift in the tides.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you\u2019ve been chasing the rapid rise in metals recently, ask yourself now if you can reasonably assess the relative probabilities of normal flow, rogue wave, or tidal shift in those markets.&nbsp; If you\u2019re new to trading those markets, please recognize the difficulty of an accurate assessment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We haven\u2019t written much about gold and silver recently, and that\u2019s on me.\u00a0 I\u2019ve been meaning to write pieces about precious metals on various days, but then something came up on each of them.\u00a0 Many investors and active traders clearly have been participating in the huge run-ups that each of those metals have experienced recently and today can\u2019t be a pleasant one for those who have been chasing the rapid moves higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":233141,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[147,255,10995,20666,678],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-233139","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-commodities","15":"tag-gold","16":"tag-market-volatility","17":"tag-parabolic-move","18":"tag-silver","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/gold-down-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=233139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233139\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/233141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=233139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=233139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=233139"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=233139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}