{"id":232956,"date":"2025-10-17T12:35:30","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T16:35:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232956"},"modified":"2025-10-17T14:15:35","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T18:15:35","slug":"mamdanis-probability-reaches-an-88-record-with-yesterdays-nyc-mayoral-debate-failing-to-shift-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/mamdanis-probability-reaches-an-88-record-with-yesterdays-nyc-mayoral-debate-failing-to-shift-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Mamdani\u2019s Probability Reaches An 88% Record, With Yesterday\u2019s NYC Mayoral Debate Failing to Shift Odds: Oct. 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday\u2019s NYC mayoral debate between Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa didn\u2019t move probabilities much. Indeed, Mamdani\u2019s lead continues to widen, hitting a record high of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=796056051%7C20251129%7C4%7C2025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">88%<\/a> this week. Meanwhile, there are growing calls for the Republican Party\u2019s Sliwa to drop out of the election and give former State Governor Cuomo a better chance at pulling an upset. The rationale is that GOP voters would be much more likely to vote for Cuomo rather than Mamdani and that could help change the course of the race. There are approximately 4.3 million open contracts tied to this contest and residents of the five boroughs are scheduled to hit the booths in 18 days on Nov. 4.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"615\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-9-1100x615.jpg\" alt=\"Historical pricing and probabilities of Mamdani winning NY city mayor position\" class=\"wp-image-232960 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-9-1100x615.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-9-700x391.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-9-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-9-768x429.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-9.jpg 1327w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/615;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-is-expected-to-hold-rates-over-the-us-weekend\"><strong>China is Expected to Hold Rates Over the US Weekend<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The People\u2019s Bank of China is expected to hold rates steady at its Oct. 20 meeting. The odds of a pause have risen significantly, because earlier in the month the probability of a cut was much more probable at 40%. Still, Beijing could surprise, since its economy has been weak and it may want to offer monetary policy support to its consumers and businesses, especially in consideration of trade tensions with Washington. The chance of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=796603930%7C20251019%7C2%7COctober%2020,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">no change<\/a> currently stands at 78% against the backdrop of a 22% likelihood of a decrease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"668\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-11-1100x668.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232961 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-11-1100x668.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-11-700x425.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-11-300x182.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-11-768x466.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-11.jpg 1328w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/668;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 17, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday\u2019s NYC mayoral debate between Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa didn\u2019t move probabilities much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":226876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-232956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mamdani\u2019s Probability Reaches An 88% Record, With Yesterday\u2019s NYC Mayoral Debate Failing 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