{"id":232760,"date":"2025-10-15T11:34:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T15:34:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232760"},"modified":"2025-10-15T11:54:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T15:54:17","slug":"is-the-bubble-learning-how-to-code","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-the-bubble-learning-how-to-code\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Bubble Learning How to Code?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Andrew Wilkinson sits down with Kevin Davitt, Head of Index Options Content at Nasdaq, to unpack what recent market volatility really means, how the \u201ccost of protection\u201d helps investors read the mood of the market, and whether today\u2019s optimism is backed by fundamentals or just silicon dream.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is the Bubble Learning How to Code?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=nv5sm-1994807-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-307\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 307<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good morning. How are you? This is Andrew Wilkinson with Interactive Brokers. Today, for this week\u2019s Midweek Podcast, I\u2019m joined by Kevin Davitt, who\u2019s the Head of Index Options Content at Nasdaq. Welcome back to the program, Kevin.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks for having me, Andrew. I\u2019m excited to be here, as always.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You are not the only one who\u2019s back \u2014 we\u2019ve got some volatility back. But put its return in context. We had a significant reversal in the market last week, a rebound on Monday, then another fall, and now today, being Wednesday, the market\u2019s back up again. What is the current cost of protection, and what is it saying about where we are in the stock market?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Ooh, I really like the way you frame that \u2014 paying particular attention to the \u201ccost of protection\u201d element. In my opinion, that\u2019s a really foundational understanding if you operate in markets using options. What do I mean by that? What is the cost of exposure \u2014 if I want exposure to the upside, downside, or some specific slice of the distribution of outcomes? Thinking in those terms.\u00a0I also think we like benchmarks \u2014 and I like analogies. So, you go to Trader Joe\u2019s, the grocery store, whatever, and bananas are a quarter. It\u2019s easy for me to know if they\u2019re suddenly more or less expensive. Or earlier this year, the examples that were thrown around about a dozen eggs. With markets, it\u2019s less easy.\u00a0But as many of your listeners probably know, implied volatility levels become that common denominator that allows you to evaluate the cost of exposure relative to some historical norm. Now, somewhat long-winded intro to your broader framing: through yesterday\u2019s close, the cost of protection in the Nasdaq-100 \u2014 which is where I focus my attention \u2014 is higher than it has been for the past couple of months, but relative to a longer-term view, we\u2019re in line with what\u2019s normal.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just to give that some sense of validation, the longer-term annualized volatility \u2014 so we\u2019re talking about realized vol here \u2014 in the Nasdaq-100 is around 21%. And we have the VXN, which is the VIX methodology but with inputs from Nasdaq-100 options, measuring right around that level now.\u00a0For those that live in the here and now and are looking for opportunity or potential opportunity, the question revolves around: was Friday\u2019s 4% high-to-low move off of all-time highs the start of another stretch of meaningful realized volatility like we saw in April? If so, then I would argue that the current cost of protection is reasonable \u2014 potentially cheap. But if we quickly move back, like the past couple of days have seemed to, to the broader trend of relatively muted vol \u2014 and we\u2019re not going back to an April environment \u2014 perhaps it\u2019s high.\u00a0And that\u2019s the beauty of markets \u2014 you\u2019re afforded an ability to express your view as to whether things are relatively high or low.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Kevin, as you said, you live inside the realms of the technology market. I see you as a bit of a hobbit running around those corridors and opening doors \u2014 looking at what\u2019s in here, what\u2019s in there. Where are you seeing pockets of strength, and where are you seeing pockets of weakness within technology?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, keeping it strictly within tech \u2014 that\u2019s a good question. Let\u2019s be a little bit broader because, both broader and narrow, here and now we are moving into earnings season. You have that generally led by big banks. And yesterday, you had some comments out of Chair Powell, which sort of fueled some flows back into areas that have been beaten down relative to big tech for quite some time \u2014 like the cyclical stuff: energies, financials, and small caps. That has happened in fits and spurts for a long time.\u00a0But bigger picture \u2014 this year included \u2014 technology encompasses so many things, right? Technology touches everything, whether you\u2019re a big bank or an energy company. If I look at the distribution of the big names that have powered markets largely for the past three years, it\u2019s interesting to see that since Friday\u2019s open, Nvidia is the laggard. And that is the biggest constituent in the Nasdaq-100 and the S&amp;P 500 through yesterday\u2019s close.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only name in that group that gets thrown around often that\u2019s higher is Google. But the broad market is off by somewhere between one and two percent. So I\u2019ll be looking to \u2014 and I don\u2019t want to poke into too many specific names \u2014 but I\u2019ll be looking toward two weeks from now when the names that we mention here and talk about in terms of big tech start reporting earnings, because I think that\u2019s where the rubber meets the road and where a lot of the talk around potentially frothy valuations has been centered.\u00a0But for the past couple of years, earnings have kept up and exceeded expectations \u2014 and that has allowed the market to move higher, in my opinion.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s been lots of chatter recently about \u201cirrational exuberance\u201d and comparing the current AI boom to the dot-com era. Do you think that\u2019s a fair comparison? Reasons to believe that it\u2019s different this time?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-0\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Those are dangerous words \u2014 and there has been quite a bit of chatter. Of the coverage that I\u2019ve followed, the corollaries that are most reminiscent of the late \u201990s involve some of the revenues or deals dependent on circular financing or vendor financing \u2014 that has been somewhat of a hot-button topic lately.\u00a0Mike Green, who is a friend and has an amazing Substack, did an interview spot on this recently. He reframed it in a way that I really enjoyed. He highlighted the cash flow and debt levels, as well as the margins that many of the companies employing this approach lately enjoy \u2014 and that swung my mentality from a knee-jerk \u201cyeah, that seems questionable\u201d to \u201cmaybe that is a much more thoughtful way to frame this conversation.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So let me explain that a little bit. Things are so dramatically different for the big names driving broad markets relative to 25 years ago in the context of money-making. Twenty-five years ago, the big drivers of markets were largely prolific money-losers \u2014 and the market was valuing the potential for growth in time. It did get out over its skis, in hindsight \u2014 very easy to say after the fact.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The companies mentioned today \u2014 whether it\u2019s Oracle or OpenAI or Nvidia or AMD \u2014 mostly, with the exception of OpenAI which isn\u2019t public, they\u2019re all cash cows. I think the question becomes \u2014 and I alluded to this when we move into earnings for these big tech companies \u2014 these companies that have significant margins and make a lot of money: in 2025, they\u2019ve been investing a great deal of capital into the infrastructure to support the continued growth of AI.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Will they be able to monetize that? Will their margins diminish? Will we overbuild capacity \u2014 like the sort of bellwether there was Nortel Networks back then, if any listeners are into history? I don\u2019t know. But I think it\u2019s a concern.\u00a0And I would argue \u2014 and maybe I\u2019m being a bit of a homer here \u2014 that one potentially very accessible way to manage that concern is using index options. Granted, I\u2019m paid to think this way, but I also believe the market looks at it this way too: that the Nasdaq-100 would arguably be a cleaner expression of that concern, given the higher levels of concentration to most of the names that I mentioned.\u00a0That said \u2014 and this will be my last point \u2014 market timing is incredibly difficult in the short term, and over the long term, I would argue it\u2019s almost impossible. From an options perspective, I think panic is easier to identify than market tops. Complacency looks very different \u2014 and complacency and low-volatility grind-hires can continue for many years.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that\u2019s my very political kind of answer to \u201cI don\u2019t know.\u201d But there are tools your audience has access to \u2014 very liquid ways to spread your chips across time, tenors, and exposures \u2014 and I think the audience, the world, continues to become much more sophisticated about how they go about that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What I\u2019m really enjoying on my commute these days is listening to Andrew Ross Sorkin\u2019s <em>1929<\/em> on the BBC. Absolutely fascinating \u2014 if you get a chance to listen to that, Kevin.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-1\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>He is such a good writer and speaker. And I appreciate any sort of recommendations from you, Andrew. I look forward to that \u2014 I\u2019ve got a flight later; I\u2019m going to be listening.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Excellent. Alright, Kevin, as always, a pleasure. Thank you very much for joining me today.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-2\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you for having me.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And to the audience \u2014 if you enjoyed this episode, there\u2019s plenty more wherever you download your podcasts from. Subscribe to us there. Bye for now.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Andrew Wilkinson sits down with Kevin Davitt, Head of Index Options Content at Nasdaq, to unpack what recent market volatility really means, how the \u201ccost of protection\u201d helps investors read the mood of the market, and whether today\u2019s optimism is backed by fundamentals or just silicon 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