{"id":232700,"date":"2025-10-14T13:01:09","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T17:01:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232700"},"modified":"2025-10-14T15:30:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T19:30:17","slug":"team-no-for-tomorrows-final-spain-cpi-yes-to-singapore-gdp-revision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/team-no-for-tomorrows-final-spain-cpi-yes-to-singapore-gdp-revision\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cTeam No\u201d For Tomorrow\u2019s Final Spain CPI, \u201cYes\u201d To Singapore GDP Revision: Oct. 14, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The preliminary release of September\u2019s Consumer Price Index for Spain pointed to a 0.4% month-over-month drop alongside a 2.9% year-over year increase, which landed the index value at 118.345. In consideration of the indicator\u2019s subdued deviation rate, the final release tomorrow, which is what our forecast contracts are tied to for this specific gauge, is likely to come in at 118.3 or 118.4, while 118.2 or 118.5 would be significant surprises. For this reason, I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNos\u201d from 118.5<\/a> to 120.5 attractive, which are ranging in cost from $0.79 to $0.96. The \u201cYes\u201d at 118 also appears safe in my opinion at $0.93.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Singapore GDP Revisions Have Been Historically Modest<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Singapore\u2019s GDP revisions have been historically modest, and today\u2019s 2.9% preliminary growth rate offer sours prediction market participants an opportunity to buy \u201cYeses\u201d below that level. Indeed, the absolute average and median adjustments since fourth quarter 2005 have been 0.6 and 0.3. Against this backdrop I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 1%<\/a>, 1.5%, 2% and 2.5% attractive. They range from $0.96 to $0.46 in cost. The 2% and 2.5% levels are especially undervalued, in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

US CPI Was Due Tomorrow, But the Shutdown Suspended It<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

My September forecasts for the overall and core US CPIs are both at 3% and I think there\u2019s very little likelihood that they will exceed 3.1% and 3.4%, which are the available thresholds above my expectations. Of the 35 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, none anticipate a number north of those two levels. Despite the government shutdown and these numbers not being released tomorrow, the \u201cNos\u201d at 3.1%<\/a> for core and 3.4%<\/a> on headline are significantly undervalued at $0.75 and $0.94. Finally, this indicator also carries a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to arrive near projections.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 14, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The preliminary release of September\u2019s Consumer Price Index for Spain points to a 0.4% month-over-month drop alongside a 2.9% year-over year increase, which landed the index value at 118.345. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214827,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,18929,18,8,9,3],"tags":[20636],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-232700","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-forecast-trader","10":"category-macro","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-spain-cpi","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cTeam No\u201d For Tomorrow\u2019s Final Spain CPI, \u201cYes\u201d To Singapore GDP Revision: Oct. 14, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The preliminary release of 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/stl-madrid.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=232700"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232700\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/214827"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=232700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=232700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=232700"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=232700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}