{"id":232671,"date":"2025-10-14T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232671"},"modified":"2025-10-15T05:05:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T09:05:14","slug":"government-shutdown-what-investors-may-see-in-the-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/government-shutdown-what-investors-may-see-in-the-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Government shutdown: What investors may see in the market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Shutdown continues<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With the shutdown over a week old, parts of the government have closed, as Congress continues to disagree over how to fund it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Limited market impact<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While this shutdown has seen limited market volatility so far, many past shutdowns saw more, which tended to resolve quickly with little impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think long-term<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t let any short-term market volatility from a government shutdown change your long-term investing plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The federal government\u2019s fifth shutdown this century has entered its second week. As Congress continues to disagree over funding, large parts of the US government sit dormant. The market, so far, hasn\u2019t seemed to care. What is a government shutdown, and when will it be resolved? How has the government shutdown affected the stock market? Should investors be concerned?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shutdowns limit government operations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During the shutdown, essential government functions have continued. This has included, but hasn\u2019t been limited to, air-traffic control, border patrol, federal prisons, power grid, mail delivery, disaster relief, food-safety inspections, military, and tax collection. Seniors have continued to receive Social Security and Medicare. Veteran benefits, unemployment benefits, and food stamps have been administered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many non-essential government activities have ceased though. Examples abound, but here are just a few. The Justice Department has suspended many civil cases. NASA has paused most projects but continues to support to the International Space Station. Certain national parks have remained open, but with limited hours and staffing. The National Zoo has continued to operate using last year\u2019s funds, but is set to close Oct. 12 (though the animals will be fed.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A shutdown is no laughing matter for the estimated 3 million federal employees. Non-essential workers have been furloughed. Essential workers may be paid retroactively when Congress funds the government again. In 2019, roughly 800,000 non-essential workers were furloughed, and 1.3 million essential workers received IOUs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Government shutdowns tend to resolve quickly<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Government shutdowns have precedent. This is the 22nd<\/sup> since modern Congressional budgeting began in 1976. The longest \u2014 34 days \u2014 lasted from December 2018 to January 2019, during the first Trump administration.1<\/a><\/sup> Most were resolved much more quickly, with an average length of eight days. Five only lasted a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shutdowns typically end when one or both political parties can no longer withstand the public\u2019s ire. During the 2013 government shutdown, Congress\u2019s approval rating fell to a record-low 9%.2<\/a><\/sup> For context, at the time, that was below approval ratings for head lice, root canals, traffic jams, and even colonoscopies. As of September 2025, 26% of Americans approved of Congress, down from a multi-year high of 36% in March 2021.3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Government shutdowns have had minimal impact on the stock market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The good news is that government shutdowns haven\u2019t really affected the stock market historically. While there have been examples of heightened market volatility, it\u2019s generally been benign. (And so far that\u2019s been true of this shutdown as well.) The S&P 500 Index posted positive returns during 12 of the 21 previous government shutdowns. The average S&P 500 return during those shutdowns was 0.1%.4<\/a><\/sup> (Remember, shutdowns have been resolved, on average, within eight days.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not all government shutdowns created market volatility<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Not<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg L.P., 12\/31\/22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of the 30 largest, most widely held stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Volatility is measured by the standard deviation of price moves on returns of the index. Standard deviation measures a range of total returns for a portfolio or index compared to the mean. An investment cannot be made into an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 12 months following the December 2018 government shutdown \u2014 the most recent \u2014 the S&P 500 Index gained 26.2%. It returned 19.72% in the year following the infamous shutdown of 2013. In fact, since 1980, the average S&P 500 return in the 12 months following the government closing is 16.95%.5<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extending the timeline even further, a $100,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index in 1957 would\u2019ve been worth $12.6 million by the end of 2024.6<\/a><\/sup> That\u2019s despite 21 government shutdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors should consider sticking to long-term investing plans<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While unnerving, concerns about shutdowns shouldn\u2019t change investors\u2019 long-term investment plans; sticking to the plan may be the best way forward. This isn’t the first government shutdown, and it likely won\u2019t be the last. We expect the spending bill (or bills) to pass eventually and government operations to return to normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime, the political gamesmanship continues. Past shutdowns have generally been short with little noticeable impact for most people. Let\u2019s hope history repeats itself. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted October 14, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Government shutdown: What investors may see in the market<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnotes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Source: US Treasury, 8\/31\/23<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Gallup, 2\/26\/25. The Congressional Approval Rating fell to 5% in the Associated Press poll.\u00a0 It never got below 9% in the Gallup poll.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Gallup, 9\/16\/25<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg, L.P. 12\/31\/22.\u00a0An investment cannot be made into an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., 2\/26\/25, based on the returns of the S&P 500 Index. An investment cannot be made into an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., 12\/19\/24. The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest domestic US stocks. Performance based on price returns. An investment cannot be made into an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Important Information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NA4891474<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of Oct. 10, 2025. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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