{"id":232573,"date":"2025-10-13T12:54:25","date_gmt":"2025-10-13T16:54:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232573"},"modified":"2025-10-13T14:48:18","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T18:48:18","slug":"forecast-trades-that-expire-tomorrow-german-final-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trades-that-expire-tomorrow-german-final-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow: German Final CPI, US Gas Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Germany\u2019s initial Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has already been provided, publishing increases of 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year and landing at a value of 122.6 for September. In light of this indicator\u2019s subdued revision rate, it\u2019s safe to say, in my opinion, that tomorrow\u2019s result will likely be 122.6, while 122.4 and 122.8 would be significant surprises. Meanwhile, the forecast trades with attractive risk-reward profiles against this backdrop are the \u201cYeses\u201d from <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=808613964%7C20251014%7C120.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">120.5 <\/a>to 122, which range from $0.96 to $0.85, as well as the \u201cNos\u201d from 123 to 124.5 which are going for $0.85, $0.95 and $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"95\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-5-1100x95.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Germany's CPI will exceed 122 in September. \" class=\"wp-image-232575 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-5-1100x95.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-5-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-5-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-5-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-5.jpg 1338w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/95;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"409\" height=\"500\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-7.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Germany's CPI\" class=\"wp-image-232576 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-7.jpg 409w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-7-300x367.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 409px) 100vw, 409px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 409px; aspect-ratio: 409\/500;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201cYes\u201d To US Gas Prices Above $3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US government has been shutdown but the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/gasdiesel\/\">Department of Energy<\/a> has continued releasing economic data under normal publication schedules until further notice. Against this backdrop, it\u2019s highly unlikely that US gas prices broke below the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=751047545%7C20251014%7C3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$3 level<\/a>, a number it has exceeded every week since the one ended on December 29. The previous figure was $3.124 for Oct. 6, and for \u201cTeam Yes\u201d to lose here, a sharp 4% weekly decline would be required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"94\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-7-1100x94.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking is US gasoline will exceed $3 for the week ending Oct. 13\" class=\"wp-image-232577 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-7-1100x94.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-7-700x60.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-7-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-7-768x65.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-7.jpg 1386w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/94;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct.13, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Germany\u2019s initial Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has already been provided, publishing increases of 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year and landing at a value of 122.6 for September.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210347,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,18929,18,8,9,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-232573","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow: German Final CPI, US Gas 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