{"id":232336,"date":"2025-10-10T12:18:23","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T16:18:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232336"},"modified":"2025-10-10T12:55:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T16:55:10","slug":"forecast-idea-for-monday-and-more-familiar-umich-revision-trade-team-yes-on-indias-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-idea-for-monday-and-more-familiar-umich-revision-trade-team-yes-on-indias-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Idea for Monday and More: Familiar UMich Revision Trade, \u201cTeam Yes\u201d on India\u2019s CPI: Oct. 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-modest-revision-history-presents-umich-opportunity\"><strong>Modest Revision History Presents UMich Opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This morning\u2019s University of Michigan (UMich) US Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 55; however, our forecast contracts are tied to the final release, which is due two Fridays from now on Oct. 24. Meanwhile, the revision history, or the difference between the initial and complete readings are particularly modest, with the average and median in absolute terms standing at 0.95 and 0.7. Against this backdrop, I find the \u201cNo\u201d at 56 attractive because it costs just $0.27 and my pricing model shows that it should be at $0.80. The \u201cNos\u201d at 58, 60, 62, 64 and 66 are also undervalued in my view, requiring adjustments of historic proportions to lose money. Those are ranging from $0.91 to $0.98.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"101\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-6-1100x101.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232345 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-6-1100x101.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-6-700x64.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-6-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-6-768x70.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-6-1536x141.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-6.jpg 1650w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/101;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"800\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-1100x800.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232344 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-1100x800.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-768x559.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-1536x1117.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Chart-1.jpg 1783w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/800;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"523\" height=\"528\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-6.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232351 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 523px; aspect-ratio: 523\/528;width:602px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-6.jpg 523w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-6-300x303.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 523px) 100vw, 523px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-india-s-cpi-is-volatile-but-yeses-look-attractive\"><strong>India\u2019s CPI is Volatile, but \u201cYeses\u201d Look Attractive<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>India\u2019s index CPI value is expected to rise to 197.5 from 197 according to the median estimate consisting of 38 forecasters participating in the Reuters monthly poll for September. But the range of potential outcomes is particularly wide, amidst a minimum projection of 196.53 and a maximum of 200.61. Against this backdrop and my analysis that doesn\u2019t support a 0.5% month-over-month drop, I find the risk reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d answers at 194, 195 and 196 attractive. They\u2019re going for $0.89, $0.88 and $0.83.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"96\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-3-1100x96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232352 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-3-1100x96.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-3-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-3-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-3-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-3.jpg 1322w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/96;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"513\" height=\"587\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232353 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5-2.jpg 513w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5-2-300x343.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 513px; aspect-ratio: 513\/587;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 10, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning\u2019s University of Michigan (UMich) US Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 55; however, our forecast contracts are tied to the final release, which is due two Fridays from now on Oct. 24. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":221991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,3],"tags":[1576],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-232336","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-traders-insight","10":"tag-consumer-sentiment","11":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Idea for Monday and More: Familiar UMich Revision Trade, \u201cTeam Yes\u201d on India\u2019s 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