{"id":232265,"date":"2025-10-10T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232265"},"modified":"2025-10-13T04:34:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T08:34:17","slug":"the-case-for-balancing-ai-optimism-with-gold-realism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-case-for-balancing-ai-optimism-with-gold-realism\/","title":{"rendered":"The Case for Balancing AI Optimism with Gold Realism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Are artificial intelligence (AI) and Magnificent 7 stocks in a bubble? I\u2019ve been seeing more and more headlines lately speculating that a crash could be imminent, and while I don\u2019t hold the same opinion, I do believe that prudent risk management demands that investors consider allocating to risk-off assets, including gold and silver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like AI stocks, precious metals look overbought; but unlike AI stocks, they\u2019re structurally underinvested. As such, I believe they deserve another look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valuations Overextended<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In case you\u2019ve been living around a rock, AI has dominated both public markets and venture capital flows. According to PitchBook, more than 55% of global venture funding this year has gone to AI,<\/a> with giants like OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI receiving the lion\u2019s share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the public markets, Nvidia, Microsoft and their Mag 7 peers have carried the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to repeated all-time highs, while equal-weight indices lag far behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Tech<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Valuations are stretched. The S&P\u2019s forward price-to-earnings multiple sits near 23 right now, on the higher end of the spectrum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Billionaire hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman told CNBC last week<\/a> he thinks we\u2019re at the stage of the bull market that Warren Buffett cautioned about; namely, irrational exuberance appears to be in control, not fundamentals. The so-called Buffett indicator\u2014the ratio of total U.S. market cap to gross national product (GNP)\u2014surged past 200% last week, meaning equities are now valued at more than double the size of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of this guarantees a crash is coming, of course. But as someone who lived through the internet frenzy of the late 90s, I know what can happen when investor capital collects too narrowly in a handful of names. If an AI pullback happens, it could be sharp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold and Silver Still Under-owned<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

That brings us to gold and silver, which just posted a historic third quarter. Gold surged 17% to $3,840 an ounce, its largest quarterly dollar gain on record,<\/a> according to the Wall Street Journal. Silver jumped nearly 30% to $46.25, its biggest quarterly percentage gain ever, and just shy of its 1980 peak, when the Hunt brothers notoriously tried to corner the global silver market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Remarkably, precious metals remain deeply underrepresented in portfolios. In a report dated September 25, Bank of America strategists point out that gold makes up a measly 0.4% of private client assets and 2.4% of institutional assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When investors wake up to the need to diversify in a high-valuation, low-yield world, the flood of capital into metals and mining could be massive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Miners Back in Favor<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The rally hasn\u2019t been limited to physical bullion. Gold mining stocks, long our of favor, are roaring back. Bloomberg reports that the group collectively raised $6.7 billion in equity<\/a> in the third quarter alone, the highest quarterly total on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Major offerings from Hong Kong\u2019s Zijin Gold, China\u2019s Shandong Gold and Indonesia\u2019s Merdeka Gold are leading the rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I was pleased to see that Bank of America named gold miners its number one investment theme of 2025, ahead of uranium, defense tech and even AI. That\u2019s a huge endorsement in a year when tech and AI have dominated the news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold in a Diversified Portfolio<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I would be remiss if I didn\u2019t mention that gold and silver are flashing overbought signals right now, whether viewed through standard deviation or the 14-day relative strength index (RSI). Historically, such moves have preceded pullbacks. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if a correction occurred before we see further gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if precious metals roll over, the losses could be smaller and shorter-lived than a potential AI crash. Hypothetical stress tests conducted by the World Gold Council (WGC) found that adding gold to a diversified portfolio reduced declines by 50 to 90 basis points<\/a> across scenarios ranging from equity crashes to credit squeezes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Underinvestment Opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I see a lot of potential opportunity in the underinvestment theme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re living in a time of extraordinary capital concentration. On one end of the spectrum, trillions are pouring into AI platforms and a handful of megacap stocks. On the other, gold and silver, through breaking records, remain afterthoughts in most portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which side do you think offers greater margin of safety today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Older investors in particular should pay attention. Many no doubt remember the dotcom crash. Even Amazon\u2014today, the world\u2019s fifth largest company by market capitalization\u2014plunged more than 90% from peak (December 1999) to trough (October 2001). Over the same period, gold gained about 5%\u2014nothing to write home about, but it certainly helped stem the losses elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not suggesting you sell your Mag 7 stocks. Just don\u2019t ignore the tried-and-true assets that have helped empires and households alike preserve their wealth for thousands of years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted October 6, 2025 – The Case for Balancing AI Optimism with Gold Realism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n


The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is a version of the S&P 500 index where each of its approximately 500 constituent companies holds an equal dollar value, unlike the traditional market-cap weighted S&P 500 where larger companies have a greater impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A basis point (bp) is a standard unit of measurement in finance equal to 0.01% or 1\/100th of 1 percent. Standard deviation measures how spread out a set of data is from its average (mean). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular technical indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes to identify overbought or oversold conditions in a security, oscillating between 0 and 100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. None of the securities mentioned in the article were held by any accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 9\/30\/2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Are artificial intelligence (AI) and Magnificent 7 stocks in a bubble? I\u2019ve been seeing more and more headlines lately speculating that a crash could be imminent, and while I don\u2019t hold the same opinion, I do believe that prudent risk management demands that investors consider allocating to risk-off assets, including gold and silver.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":232312,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":{"0":"post-232265","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-us-global-investors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Case for Balancing AI Optimism with Gold Realism<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Are artificial intelligence (AI) and Magnificent 7 stocks in a bubble? 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