{"id":232075,"date":"2025-10-08T12:36:44","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T16:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232075"},"modified":"2025-10-08T13:13:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T17:13:26","slug":"forecast-traders-expect-an-oct-21st-reopening-but-the-feds-weekly-economic-index-isnt-suspended-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-traders-expect-an-oct-21st-reopening-but-the-feds-weekly-economic-index-isnt-suspended-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Traders Expect an Oct. 21 Reopening, But the Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index Isn\u2019t Suspended Tomorrow: Oct. 8, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s Weekly Economic Index from the Dallas Fed isn\u2019t suspended due to the government shutdown because central banking activities aren\u2019t subject to congressional funding. Meanwhile, the contract related to the week ended Oct. 4 included four days of the closure and my hunch is that conditions decelerated during that time span. In consideration of my 2.3 estimate, I like the risk-reward profile of the \u201cNo\u201d answer at 2.6, priced at $0.62. Despite the previous figure of 2.4, 2.6 hasn\u2019t been exceeded for nine consecutive weeks and I don\u2019t envision that in this print. Additionally, I find the \u201cNos\u201d from 2.8% up to 3.2%, which range from $0.87 to $0.96, undervalued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"95\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-1-1100x95.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232080 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-1-1100x95.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-1-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-1-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-1-768x66.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-1.jpg 1330w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/95;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"512\" height=\"626\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232081 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-5.jpg 512w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-5-300x367.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 512px; aspect-ratio: 512\/626;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-claims-were-due-tomorrow-but-are-suspended\"><strong>Claims Were Due Tomorrow, But Are Suspended<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Initial unemployment claims won\u2019t be released tomorrow due to the shutdown but I find the \u201cYes\u201d at 220k undervalued at $0.65. In the past eight weeks of data, it\u2019s only failed to exceed that level once. Meanwhile, signs of labor marker deceleration are evident, pointing to an increasing likelihood of \u201cTeam Yes\u201d being correct here when the figure is published.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"96\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-5-1100x96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232082 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-5-1100x96.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-5-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-5-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-5-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-5.jpg 1323w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/96;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecast-traders-expect-shutdown-to-end-around-october-21-st\"><strong>Forecast Traders Expect Shutdown to End Around October 21<sup>st<\/sup><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Current probabilities for the end of the government shutdown contracts on Oct. 17 and Oct. 24 are 37% and 59%, pointing to forecast traders expecting a reopening date around Oct. 21. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1042\" height=\"91\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture11.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232083 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture11.jpg 1042w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture11-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture11-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture11-768x67.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1042px) 100vw, 1042px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1042px; aspect-ratio: 1042\/91;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"94\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture12-1100x94.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-232084 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture12-1100x94.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture12-700x60.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture12-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture12-768x65.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture12.jpg 1304w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/94;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 8, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s Weekly Economic Index from the Dallas Fed isn\u2019t suspended due to the government shutdown because central banking activities aren\u2019t subject to congressional funding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":48689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-232075","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast 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