{"id":232065,"date":"2025-10-08T12:28:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T16:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=232065"},"modified":"2025-10-08T13:20:25","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T17:20:25","slug":"can-you-really-trade-on-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/can-you-really-trade-on-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Can You Really Trade on the Future?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From billion-dollar bets to binary options, prediction markets are stepping into the spotlight. Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy joins Jeff Praissman to explore whether traders can actually profit from forecasting \u2014 and what these new products mean for traditional markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Can You Really Trade on the Future?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=bfsme-198983d-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-304\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 304<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with the Interactive Brokers Podcast. It&#8217;s my pleasure to welcome back Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey Scott, how are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, Jeff. I&#8217;m great, and just hoping for a Cubs win later today.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, unfortunately, my Phillies don&#8217;t seem to be getting it done.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yep.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But you know, it&#8217;s great \u2014 we have you in about every other Wednesday just to kind of go over the market from the week before and what you see ahead. Always appreciate you coming by. For our listeners, you can find more from Scott at prospertradingacademy.com and also on our website under Education.\u00a0But you know, Scott, I want to take a little different twist this time around. Last week, the Intercontinental Exchange made a pretty big announcement \u2014 they&#8217;re making a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, which, for those that aren\u2019t familiar, is a prediction market platform.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These prediction markets and event contracts are becoming more and more popular in the mainstream. Interactive Brokers offers access to ForecastX contracts and the CME event contracts \u2014 cash fees, you know, advertising all over the place, it seems.\u00a0In your opinion, how do these prediction markets correlate with more traditional market instruments like equities and options? And do you see more of the exchanges getting involved with these down the road?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You know, I think it&#8217;s just an extension of what we already have. Especially, you know, I think Intercontinental Exchange, Polymarket, Kalshi \u2014 they probably all looked at the massive rise of these zero-DTE options in the SPX that came out, and the necessity because of the demand for these types of \u2014 I\u2019m not going to call them bets, because as a trader we never like to say anybody\u2019s making a bet \u2014 but these types of strategies that are very binary and maybe short term in nature.\u00a0So when I see these prediction markets come out \u2014 and again, you mentioned CME, CME has them \u2014 they\u2019re available across a wide array of products where you can take a position on whether the S&amp;P is going to close above or below a certain price, gold is, you know, whatever it might be.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And I think that\u2019s all because of the demand of the marketplace right now. So I do think they\u2019re highly correlated, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we start to see more and more similar type products being rolled out.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And you know, I can\u2019t have you on without talking about the VIX. Yesterday we got about a 6% pop out of the VIX. You think the vol is going to continue to rise in the immediate future?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You know, it\u2019s really interesting because if you look at the vol curve in the VIX \u2014 if you look at the futures curve going out \u2014 it\u2019s pretty flat. So that pop that we saw was really short term, meaning that maybe retail or people thought that something was going to happen imminently or really in the next week or so, whether the market was at a top, something with the shutdown, or whatever it might be.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But going out, those futures are pretty steady, pretty flat. Now, I would expect vol to stay pretty level and maybe tick up a little bit. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s coming down anytime soon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And you know, another podcast, another 52-week high in the S&amp;P.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oh.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is this the top?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You know, my magic eight ball has been wrong the last eight times or so. You know, it\u2019s crazy. This is a Teflon market, Jeff. It really is. The trend has certainly been to the upside. At some point, we know that\u2019s going to reverse \u2014 but what\u2019s it going to take?\u00a0This market has been thrown so many curveballs, and yet we continue to move higher. Maybe it\u2019s the lofty expectations coming into earnings season \u2014 maybe that\u2019s going to do it a little bit \u2014 but boy oh boy, you just can\u2019t bet against the trend right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, and you know, earnings are starting to trickle in a little bit, but I think most people consider next week really the start of it. On the 14th we\u2019ve got some big hitters \u2014 JP Morgan, Goldman, Citi, Wells Fargo. What\u2019s the market expecting from the financial sector coming up?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You know what, like I just said, it\u2019s pretty optimistic. In fact, eight of the eleven S&amp;P 500 sectors are projected to report pretty big year-over-year earnings growth \u2014 and that\u2019s led by the financials, also led by the tech sector.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So especially when you look at the big guys \u2014 Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley \u2014 those are the ones that are going to be the bellwethers that really kind of lead the charge here. But as I said, there\u2019s a lot of optimism, which is really different than what we\u2019ve seen over the last year when there\u2019s been some pessimism coming into earnings season.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. And then, you know, we always talk \u2014 obviously AI is a huge subject in the financials \u2014 but is there a sector that you think might be flying under the radar that could have a big market effect this earnings season?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure, yeah. And you know, it kind of goes along with the AI that you just mentioned, but because AI companies are really increasing their power consumption daily \u2014 I mean, there\u2019s talk about this all over the place, driving global electricity demand \u2014 I think you have to look at utilities.\u00a0The old, stodgy utility group that people would look to in times of inflation or for dividends \u2014 I think that is the one sector that can really benefit from this uptick in power consumption that we\u2019re going to see.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So really, an old classic investment could become the new, you know, newfangled\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-7\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exactly. Exactly.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-8\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And finally, I want to wrap it up with \u2014 the Fed\u2019s going to release their minutes today at 2:00 PM Eastern time from the September meeting. Is the market sentiment looking for anything specific, or is it sort of just expecting no surprises or changes?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-8\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think the market would like to see no dissension. So more of all the Fed governors coming together and saying, \u201cOkay, we\u2019re all in the same camp \u2014 whether we believe that we need to have two or three cuts coming up.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fact that it would be \u2014 I don\u2019t want to say unanimous \u2014 but a really concerted effort or opinion that they\u2019re all in the same camp of either cutting or not cutting \u2014 and it would be cutting \u2014 I think that\u2019s what the market is expecting. No more of this dissension where you have a couple of the Fed heads, as I call them, saying, \u201cYou know what, we don\u2019t need to cut rates now.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-9\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, this has been great. Thank you so much for stopping by. I love these short, precise conversations we have regarding the markets on Wednesdays. And for our listeners, again, you can find more from Scott at Prosper Trading Academy, as well as on our website under Education. He contributes articles, webinars, and podcasts as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-9\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Really appreciate it, Jeff.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From billion-dollar bets to binary options, prediction markets are stepping into the spotlight. Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy joins Jeff Praissman to explore whether traders can actually profit from forecasting \u2014 and what these new products mean for traditional markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":232067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[20613,506,20609,20612,20611,3598,20610,19455,19392,3612,19606],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-232065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-binary-options","tag-cme","tag-event-contracts","tag-financial-innovation","tag-intercontinental-exchange","tag-market-outlook","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-prosper-trading-academy","tag-trading-strategy","tag-zero-dte","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can You Really Trade on the Future? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"From billion-dollar bets to binary options, prediction markets are stepping into the spotlight. Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy joins Jeff...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232065\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can You Really Trade on the Future? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From billion-dollar bets to binary options, prediction markets are stepping into the spotlight. 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