{"id":231907,"date":"2025-10-07T10:32:01","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T14:32:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231907"},"modified":"2025-10-09T11:59:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T15:59:48","slug":"what-volatility-tells-us-about-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/what-volatility-tells-us-about-whats-next\/","title":{"rendered":"What Volatility Tells Us About What’s Next"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Quant traders, I can\u2019t help myself.\u00a0 I\u2019ve got another \u201csince\u201d data point.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve said before that I mock the folks saying, \u201cIt\u2019s the longest stretch since\u2026\u201d So yes, I\u2019m mocking myself here too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve had the longest period SINCE (there it is) we\u2019ve been tracking data for EDGE back to July 2017 with volatility below 1.5% in big ETFs tracking the S&P 500 (you know what they are).  You have to go back to May 27 for the last time volatility in them rose over 1.5%, and it was 2.2% that day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It suggests probability of a volatility spike of at least 1.5% is coming, merely because it hasn\u2019t.  The volatility bottom has crept up since Sep 17 (the lows are higher). <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why does it matter?<\/strong>  Because we trade volatility.  Remember the EDGE 1-2-3 rule?<\/em>  S&P 500 ETF trackers have a propensity to move about 1% daily between high and low prices.  The 200-day average in those instruments is 1.2%.  And since July 2020 \u2013 more than five years \u2013 it\u2019s averaged 1.2%.  That\u2019s the \u201cone\u201d in the formula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stocks comprising the basket the ETFs track averages about 2% volatility.  The 200-day average is 2.5% but every shorter read is about 2.2%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatility has diminished in the trackers but not proportionally in the basket of stocks comprising the S&P 500<\/strong>. See what I mean?  Volatility is down about 12% in S&P 500 stocks over the shorter run vs the 200-day average but down 42% in tracking ETFs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, how can that be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, clearly the ETFs don\u2019t hold all 500 stocks all the time!  They use a gentler statistical sample (read the prospectuses and you\u2019ll see that most ETFs do that). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which brings us to the \u201cthree\u201d in the 1-2-3 rule.<\/strong>  Momentum stocks have a tendency to move 3% or more.  There\u2019s excess Demand for them, so price moves disproportionately.  That\u2019s why we look for Demand\/Supply divergences. That condition creates a higher probability of positive price-movement in the form of volatility \u2013 which we take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like ASTS yesterday from the EDGE Momentum Daily Trading Ideas portfolio, which was in the entry range early in the day and then rose 9.2% — the full average five-day volatility for ASTS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s why our target in Daily Trading Ideas is 2%.  You\u2019re likely to get it routinely (for more, try EDGE).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s where it gets interesting.<\/strong> The majority of market cap is Tech, if you add together the sector, Communications Services stocks, and Consumer Discretionary stocks that are technology plays, like Tesla, Booking.com, DoorDash, Amazon, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Sea Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And volatility in the Tech sector is 2.8%.<\/em>  How can tracking ETFs have volatility of 0.7% if the underlying stocks have much higher volatility?  So-called \u201cmarket makers\u201d like Jane Street that keep stocks and ETFs aligned are absorbing spreads. Which is BIG money \u2013 the difference between 2.2% and 0.7%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

You and I cannot afford the data feeds and computing systems necessary to keep up in real-time with the spreads and capture them.  And \u201cmarket-making\u201d distorts returns. It makes ETFs much more stable vehicles than the market really offers. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until that breaks down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The term \u201cmarket-making\u201d implies altruism but these firms are trying to make money by finding spreads the same way we do. The difference is their timeframes are shorter, the target spread is smaller. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can we win then?  Well, sure! <\/strong>The short-term pursuit of those gaps by machines manifests in Demand and Supply, permitting us to profit on Daily Trading Ideas and the EDGE Model Portfolio.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key is to stay on top of trends.<\/strong>\u00a0 When the trends in Demand and Supply change, beware.\u00a0 And one just did.\u00a0 For the first time in a dozen trading days (there I go again), Supply marketwide \u2013 Short Volume \u2013 stopped falling. It could be a tell, a signal of coming volatility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS \u2013 For more, join the free live Demo<\/a> Thursday Oct 9, 2:30p ET.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Volatility has diminished in the trackers but not proportionally in the basket of stocks comprising the S&P 500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1157,"featured_media":97537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[339,338,341],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[15343],"class_list":{"0":"post-231907","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-ibkr-quant-news","9":"category-quant-development","10":"contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Volatility Tells Us About What’s Next<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Volatility has diminished in the trackers but not proportionally in the basket of stocks comprising the S&P 500.\" 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