{"id":231849,"date":"2025-10-06T13:00:05","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T17:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231849"},"modified":"2025-10-06T15:52:09","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T19:52:09","slug":"forecast-analysis-opinion-shutdown-watch-us-gas-prices-below-3-2-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-analysis-opinion-shutdown-watch-us-gas-prices-below-3-2-0\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Analysis, Opinion: Shutdown Watch, US Gas Prices Below $3.20: Oct. 6, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Our prediction market enthusiasts aren\u2019t too optimistic about a quick end to the government shutdown, assigning a significant <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=723432940%7C20251031%7C0&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">30% chance<\/a> that the funding lapse will continue partially or fully through Nov. 1. Following the Oct. 1 closure, probabilities for the \u201cYes\u201d contract have ranged between 24% and 39%, as folks consider the possibility that the GOP and Democrat standoff will last for an augmented period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"653\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-FT-1-1100x653.jpg\" alt=\"Historical pricing of ForecastTrader Contract regarding government shutdown\" class=\"wp-image-231857 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-FT-1-1100x653.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-FT-1-700x416.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-FT-1-300x178.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-FT-1-768x456.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-FT-1.jpg 1327w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/653;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gasoline-prices-to-slip-from-3-11-weekly-average\"><strong>Gasoline Prices to Slip From $3.11 Weekly Average<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My estimate for US gasoline costs calls for a weekly decline, as heavier OPEC+ production prospects weighed on prices during the week starting on September 30 and ending today on October 6. Indeed, the strongly correlated futures for gasoline and crude oil traded from roughly $1.93 and $63.07 to $1.89 and $61.43 throughout the reference period. Against this backdrop, I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNos\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=751047545%7C20251007%7C3.2&amp;detail=contract_details\">$3.20<\/a> and $3.30, which are going for $0.93 and $0.95 because I don\u2019t envision a 2.9% weekly increase from $3.11 considering the aforementioned market dynamics which support my $3.08 projection, in my opinion. This release was scheduled for tomorrow but will not be published on time due to the government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"762\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-3.jpg\" alt=\"historical prices of gasoline\" class=\"wp-image-231858 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-3.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-3-700x508.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-3-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-3-768x557.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/762;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"89\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-3-1100x89.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if gasoline will exceed $3.2 for week ending October. \" class=\"wp-image-231859 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-3-1100x89.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-3-700x57.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-3-300x24.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-3-768x62.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-3.jpg 1331w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/89;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"88\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1-1100x88.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if gasoline will exceed $3.3 for week ending October. \" class=\"wp-image-231861 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1-1100x88.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1-700x56.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1-300x24.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1-768x62.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1.jpg 1332w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/88;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"513\" height=\"448\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-1.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR contract regarding gasoline prices\" class=\"wp-image-231860 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-1.jpg 513w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-1-300x262.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 513px; aspect-ratio: 513\/448;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 6, 2025.<\/em><em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our prediction market enthusiasts aren\u2019t too optimistic about a quick end to the government shutdown, assigning a significant 30% chance that the funding lapse will continue partially or fully through Nov. 1. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223180,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-231849","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Analysis, Opinion: Shutdown Watch, US Gas Prices Below $3.20: Oct. 6, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our prediction market enthusiasts aren\u2019t too optimistic about a quick end to the government shutdown, assigning a significant 30% chance that the...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231849\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast Analysis, Opinion: Shutdown Watch, US Gas Prices Below $3.20: Oct. 6, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Our prediction market enthusiasts aren\u2019t too optimistic about a quick end to the government shutdown, assigning a significant 30% chance that the funding lapse will continue partially or fully through Nov. 1. Our prediction market enthusiasts aren\u2019t too optimistic about a quick end to the government shutdown, assigning a significant 30% chance that the funding lapse will continue partially or fully through Nov. 1. 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