{"id":231748,"date":"2025-10-03T12:28:52","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T16:28:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231748"},"modified":"2025-10-03T16:08:57","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T20:08:57","slug":"forecast-traders-expect-another-buoyant-us-gdp-print-for-q3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-traders-expect-another-buoyant-us-gdp-print-for-q3\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Traders Expect Another Buoyant US GDP Print for Q3: Oct. 3, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Our prediction market participants project that the US economy will grow an impressive 3.1% in the third quarter, even though this pace would mark a deceleration from the previous period, when GDP came in at 3.8%. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed\u2019s popular GDPNow<\/a> gauge reflects steady advancement, pointing to another 3.8% for the upcoming print. Investors that expect that a reeaceleration started in the second-half of this year after the turbulent first six months may want to consider the \u201cYes\u201d <\/a>contracts at the 3.1% and 3.5% thresholds. They are priced at $0.50 and $0.33 and would each pay out $1.00 on numbers exceeding 3.1% and 3.5%. The $0.83 total cost for both instruments would deliver $2.00 on a result at 3.6% or greater, or $1.00 on a figure at 3.2% or higher. Furthermore, this series expires upon the release of the final report on December 19, which arrives subsequent to two preliminary estimates. Traders that initiate positions in these contracts, therefore, would collect roughly two and a half months\u2019 worth of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.58% and shift in proportion to changing values as well as movements in the Fed\u2019s benchmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our prediction market participants project that the US economy will grow an impressive 3.1% in the third quarter, even though this pace would mark a deceleration from the previous period, when GDP came in at 3.8%. 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