{"id":231660,"date":"2025-10-02T12:59:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T16:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231660"},"modified":"2025-10-02T14:32:34","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T18:32:34","slug":"forecast-traders-expect-a-miss-in-september-payrolls-price-in-continued-shutdown-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-traders-expect-a-miss-in-september-payrolls-price-in-continued-shutdown-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Traders Expect a Miss in September Payrolls, Price In Continued Shutdown Risk: Oct. 2, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The government shutdown will prevent the release of tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report, but our prediction market points to a modest miss when the figure is eventually released. Indeed, the median estimate for September jobs is 50k, but the associated contract carries pricing that points to a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=582530257%7C20251003%7C50000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">54%<\/a> chance that the print will fail to exceed 50k. Few market participants are projecting a negative print, however, as there\u2019s an 86% probability of a result above 0. A big beat also has slim assigned odds, as a statistic exceeding the 100k threshold is at 11%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"855\" height=\"75\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Oct-2-FT-1.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if payroll will increase more than 50,000 in September\" class=\"wp-image-231662 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Oct-2-FT-1.jpg 855w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Oct-2-FT-1-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Oct-2-FT-1-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Oct-2-FT-1-768x67.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 855px) 100vw, 855px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 855px; aspect-ratio: 855\/75;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"471\" height=\"501\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-2.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding September payroll.\" class=\"wp-image-231664 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-2.jpg 471w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/pix-2-300x319.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 471px; aspect-ratio: 471\/501;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-but-in-line-on-unemployment\"><strong>But In-line On Unemployment<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Our prediction market participants only assign a 34% chance that September unemployment will exceed the consensus expectation of 4.3%, which would mark an unchanged month-over-month reading. A drop to 4.2% or lower is at just 21%, while a fall to 4.1% or beneath is at a mere 6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"888\" height=\"77\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture13.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if unemployment rate will exceed 4.3% in September. \" class=\"wp-image-231665 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture13.jpg 888w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture13-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture13-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture13-768x67.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 888px) 100vw, 888px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 888px; aspect-ratio: 888\/77;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"419\" height=\"399\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture14.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding September unemployment rate \" class=\"wp-image-231666 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture14.png 419w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture14-300x286.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 419px) 100vw, 419px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 419px; aspect-ratio: 419\/399;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-political-polarization-to-persist\"><strong>Political Polarization to Persist?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nov. 1 government shutdown \u201cYes\u201d contract carries a 37% probability, as participants price in the potential for continued disagreements in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"84\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture15.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US government will shutdown on Nov. 1\" class=\"wp-image-231667 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture15.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture15-700x60.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture15-300x26.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture15-768x66.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/84;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The government shutdown will prevent the release of tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report, but our prediction market points to a modest miss when the figure is eventually released.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":113983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,6,8,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-231660","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Traders Expect a Miss in September Payrolls, Price In Continued Shutdown Risk: Oct. 2, 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