{"id":231604,"date":"2025-10-01T13:06:43","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T17:06:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231604"},"modified":"2025-10-02T08:51:22","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T12:51:22","slug":"a-very-quick-one-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-very-quick-one-today\/","title":{"rendered":"A Very Quick One Today"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A series of commitments this morning and early afternoon have made it impossible for me to write a normal length piece today.&nbsp; Instead, I\u2019ll simply offer a couple of quick data points about seasonality \u2013 or the lack thereof \u2013 that I find interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, as has been widely reported, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) just finished its best September in 15 years.&nbsp; Last month\u2019s 3.53% advance was above even last September\u2019s 2.02% rise and fell short only to 2010\u2019s 8.76% jump in recent history.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/seasonality-or-something-else\/\">We noted earlier this month<\/a> that while September is statistically the worst month of the year, whether we go up or down in any given September is essentially a coin flip, even while considering the four year down streak that was broken last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>There is indeed truth to the \u201cSeptember Scaries\u201d, but data show that a decline in September is far from pre-ordained.&nbsp; Yes, September is statistically the worst month of the year for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX).&nbsp; It is only one of four that show net declines over the past 25 years, but it is by far the worst.&nbsp; (According to Bloomberg data, January has averaged -0.19% this century; February -0.46%, June -0.25%, and September 1.51%).&nbsp; Yet over that period, the likelihood of a September decline is only slightly greater than that of a coin flip: 12 of the past 25 Septembers have seen positive returns for SPX.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, we see that October is a month that has averaged solidly positive returns of 1.31% over the prior 25 years, but we have a fair dispersion of results as well.&nbsp; The odds are a bit better for an up month, 10 of 25, but that is hardly a resounding consensus.&nbsp; When we narrow the data set to Octobers that follow positive Septembers, we see that five of them resulted in lower SPX returns for that month.&nbsp; If you\u2019re looking for a definitive pattern, I\u2019ve yet to find one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One pattern that is intriguing is the recent preponderance of down days to start the trading month.&nbsp; Of the nine months prior to this one, six have begun with SPX trading lower, for an average decline of 0.41%.&nbsp; To be fair, SPX was sharply lower this morning when I collected the data \u2013 it\u2019s now modestly positive \u2013 but a decline would fit in this pattern.&nbsp; It\u2019s probably spurious, though it could be a bit of a hangover from month- or quarter-end position markups.&nbsp; I know some of you doubt that it occurs, but I assure you from my experience dealing with institutional investors that it does occur.&nbsp; How else might we explain yesterday\u2019s late elevator ride higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"314\" height=\"350\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-231605 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-1.png 314w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-1-300x334.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 314px) 100vw, 314px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 314px; aspect-ratio: 314\/350;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A series of commitments this morning and early afternoon have made it impossible for me to write a normal length piece today.  Instead, I\u2019ll simply offer a couple of quick data points about seasonality \u2013 or the lack thereof \u2013 that I find interesting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":231606,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1584,1973,910,9700,17665],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-231604","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-market-trends","15":"tag-october","16":"tag-sp-500","17":"tag-seasonality","18":"tag-september","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Very Quick One Today | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A series of commitments this morning and early afternoon have made it impossible for me to write a normal length piece today. 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