{"id":231594,"date":"2025-10-01T12:57:27","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T16:57:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231594"},"modified":"2025-10-01T15:01:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T19:01:36","slug":"tomorrows-forecast-trades-for-eu-unemployment-feds-weekly-index","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/tomorrows-forecast-trades-for-eu-unemployment-feds-weekly-index\/","title":{"rendered":"Tomorrow\u2019s Forecast Trades for EU Unemployment, Fed\u2019s Weekly Index: Oct. 1, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The European Union\u2019s unemployment figure has a subdued deviation rate and rarely increases by more than 0.1% on a month over month basis; it hasn\u2019t since early 2021, shortly after the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic. It\u2019s expected to remain unchanged at 6.2%, and out of the 30 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the projections range from 6.2% to 6.3% in narrow fashion. Against this backdrop I find the risk-reward profile of the \u201cNo\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=781672996%7C20251002%7C6.3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">6.3%<\/a> attractive, as it\u2019s going for $0.81. I also think the \u201cYes\u201d at 5.9% is undervalued at $0.97, as a drop of 0.3% is similarly unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-1.jpg\" alt=\"Differences in estimates and final prints for eurozone unemployment are usually very small\" class=\"wp-image-231596 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-1.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-1-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-1-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture1-1-768x558.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"765\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-1.jpg\" alt=\"An attractive IBKR ForecastTrader Contract combination\" class=\"wp-image-231597 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-1.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-1-700x510.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-1-300x219.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture2-1-768x560.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/765;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"821\" height=\"72\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking is eurozone unemployment will exceed 6.3% in August\" class=\"wp-image-231598 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3.jpg 821w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture3-768x67.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 821px) 100vw, 821px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 821px; aspect-ratio: 821\/72;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"411\" height=\"423\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding eurozone unemployment \" class=\"wp-image-231599 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4.jpg 411w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture4-300x309.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 411px) 100vw, 411px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 411px; aspect-ratio: 411\/423;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-team-yes-on-weekly-fed-index\"><strong>\u201cTeam Yes\u201d On Weekly Fed Index<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index has exceeded 1.6 every week since May 2024 and has been tracking in the mid 2s in the past few weeks and throughout most of this year. I think the \u201cYes\u201d at 1.6 is undervalued at $0.89, since conditions didn\u2019t weaken meaningfully last week in my view to drop the number from 2.05 to 1.6 in just 7 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"812\" height=\"66\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5.jpg\" alt=\"Dallas Feds weekly economic index\" class=\"wp-image-231600 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5.jpg 812w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5-700x57.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5-300x24.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture5-768x62.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 812px) 100vw, 812px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 812px; aspect-ratio: 812\/66;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-who-knows-when-claims-data-will-arrive\"><strong>Who Knows When Claims Data Will Arrive<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Who knows when the government will reopen and provide unemployment claim data for the week ended September 27. Still, labor conditions have been softening and the \u201cYes\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20251002%7C210000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">210k <\/a>costs $0.94 and sports an attractive risk-reward profile in my opinion. The level hasn\u2019t been touched since January and the weekly Reuters poll consisting of 35 forecasters ranges from a minimum projection of 218k to a maximum of 236k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture6.jpg\" alt=\"Unemployment claims \" class=\"wp-image-231601 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture6.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture6-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture6-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture6-768x558.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"95\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1100x95.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if initial eurozone unemployment will exceed 6.3% in August\" class=\"wp-image-231602 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1100x95.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10-1536x133.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/Picture10.jpg 1926w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/95;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of October 1, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The European Union\u2019s unemployment figure has a subdued deviation rate and rarely increases by more than 0.1% on a month over month basis; it hasn\u2019t since early 2021, shortly after the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":209828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5,18929,18,6,8,9,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-231594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-europe-middle-east-africa","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tomorrow\u2019s Forecast Trades for EU Unemployment, Fed\u2019s Weekly Index: Oct. 1, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The European Union\u2019s unemployment figure has a subdued deviation rate and rarely increases by more than 0.1% on a month over month basis; it hasn\u2019t...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231594\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tomorrow\u2019s Forecast Trades for EU Unemployment, Fed\u2019s Weekly Index: Oct. 1, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The European Union\u2019s unemployment figure has a subdued deviation rate and rarely increases by more than 0.1% on a month over month basis; it hasn\u2019t since early 2021, shortly after the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/tomorrows-forecast-trades-for-eu-unemployment-feds-weekly-index\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-01T16:57:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-01T19:01:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/europe-macro-chart-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/tomorrows-forecast-trades-for-eu-unemployment-feds-weekly-index\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/tomorrows-forecast-trades-for-eu-unemployment-feds-weekly-index\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Tomorrow\u2019s Forecast Trades for EU 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