{"id":231592,"date":"2025-10-01T13:54:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T17:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231592"},"modified":"2025-10-17T12:32:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T16:32:43","slug":"with-great-volatility-comes-great-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/with-great-volatility-comes-great-opportunity\/","title":{"rendered":"With Great Volatility Comes Great Opportunity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets may be climbing a wall of worry, but investors continue to swing past bad news \u2014 chasing dips, ignoring danger, and riding momentum through uncertainty. In this week\u2019s <em>Midweek Market Update<\/em>, the \u201cSpider-Man Market\u201d takes center stage as Andrew Wilkinson, Steve Sosnick, and Steve Sears unpack why every headline seems bullish and how retail traders are reshaping the landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"With Great Volatility Comes Great Opportunity\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=9uw9y-197f488-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-301\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 301<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this week&#8217;s <em>Midweek Market Update.<\/em> My name&#8217;s Andrew Wilkinson. I&#8217;m joined by Interactive Brokers Chief Market Strategist Steve Sosnick, and our special guest today is <em>Barron&#8217;s<\/em> columnist Steve Sears. Welcome to you both, gentlemen.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Great to see you, Andrew, and always a pleasure, Steve.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you, Steve. Same.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, I\u2019ve been involved in financial markets for 35 years now, and this has to be one of the wackiest I\u2019ve ever seen. The U.S. government is now officially shut down. We&#8217;re recording this on Wednesday, which carries potentially severe implications for government workers. There are out-and-out wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and an increasing sense that we are no longer at peace with Russia.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. Secretary of War, no less, yesterday gathered top military officials at Quantico. So, Steve Sears, you\u2019ve written about investors climbing a wall of worry before. That concept must be resonating in your head these days, isn\u2019t it?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-0\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It is, and I&#8217;m amazed that the wall continues to grow and equities continue to advance. Options volatility remains subdued, and even within the Treasury markets, yields are quite reasonable. Even funding spreads on those yields in the various fixed income markets are operating completely within normal parameters. I think that we&#8217;re truly in unusual times. I\u2019m not going to say that <em>this time is different<\/em>, but the one thing I keep coming back to in my mind \u2014 that I find to be very intriguing \u2014 is that I think, for the first time perhaps in history, we have a very educated, very sophisticated retail investor operating in ways that we\u2019ve never seen before.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Individual investors really only entered our markets around 1975, and really since the mid-90s. I\u2019m stunned by all the things that they discount \u2014 by their collective impact on equities. One of the most interesting things I\u2019ve seen is how some of the major sell-side banks, particularly in the derivatives strategy desks, are treating individual investors as if they were equal to hedge fund investors, who tend to be more sophisticated institutions \u2014 at least superficially. So, it\u2019s truly unprecedented times, just as the risks that you enunciated at the beginning are unprecedented.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Steve Sosnick, what do you make of it?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-0\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think if I\u2019m going to term this market, regarding Steve\u2019s \u201cwall of worry\u201d comment, this is the <em>Spider-Man market.<\/em> Basically, this market just scampers up the wall of worry, and any little crags that are in its way \u2014 any little outcrops \u2014 are essentially ignored.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we&#8217;re taping this \u2014 it\u2019s the morning of October 1st \u2014 we saw futures lower overnight, which has actually become typical. By the way, six of the prior nine first trading days of the month this year have been lower. We were looking at number seven. By the time we&#8217;re taping this, we\u2019re basically back to unchanged. There are a few truisms that I\u2019m seeing in the market \u2014 \u201ctruisms\u201d I\u2019m using in quotes. Number one: <em>All news is good news. <\/em>Government shutdown? Inconvenient. But hey, it\u2019s good news, because if it leads to a weaker economy, that leads to more rate cuts \u2014 and so, good.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This morning we got weak ADP numbers. Again, in theory, a lousy economy should be bad for stocks. But if you can do a little mental jujitsu and say that leads to lower rates and the better prospect of rate cuts \u2014 then let\u2019s rally. You can basically do this with anything at this point. The market has become very adept at fitting the desired outcome to the narrative, rather than the other way around. And I think that, to me, is the biggest fundamental change in markets that I\u2019ve been seeing recently.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-1\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Something that I find fascinating is that the minute the ADP report came out, the ticker was filled with headlines saying \u201c100% chance the Fed will cut rates.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I remember, when I started my career, that we didn\u2019t have this type of feedback loop, if you will \u2014 and I think that\u2019s amazing. It\u2019s anything that\u2019s bad is good, and good is really good. That said \u2014 and when we spoke last, we discussed what our outlooks were and where we\u2019d want to be invested \u2014 I said equities, and I still say equities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite everything, if you were to strip everything back and do that sort of reductive analysis \u2014 earnings thus far are growing. And as long as earnings are growing, you\u2019re going to see stock prices continue to rise, in my view. There\u2019s always risk. There\u2019s always an exogenous risk \u2014 like we get a fully hot war that spreads in Eastern Europe \u2014 but frankly, I\u2019m not even sure if that would be fully negative for more than a couple of days or a week before it gets priced in.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-1\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets have become very adept at ignoring geopolitics, and to be fair, to a large extent they should \u2014 because ultimately, most geopolitical events don\u2019t affect the things that affect stock prices. That\u2019s stock fundamentals \u2014 earnings, revenues, cash flows.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Honestly, if the government shuts down \u2014 this was the facetious argument I made to someone (it wasn\u2019t really facetious) \u2014 if the government shuts down, what does that do to Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google? Nothing. So let\u2019s ignore it, and let\u2019s ride them higher \u2014 that\u2019s the mentality. Whatever doesn\u2019t kill you in this market makes you stronger \u2014 and in this case, a lot stronger. And since this market\u2019s eaten a lot of potential poison over the past three years, it takes a lot to kill it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-2\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You know what though, Steve \u2014 a couple of years ago there was a documentary that came out. It was a fellow from Hong Kong who had been raised in Boston, and his father had literally escaped Hong Kong during some of the more difficult times in China.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The father basically swam from mainland China, went to Macau, made his way out, came to Boston, and set up a Chinese restaurant. He raised his kids, the kids went off to attend university, and then, many years later, the son takes the father back. All the relatives are living in Hong Kong. There was a line in this that I think of quite a bit as we look at the markets. They were talking about inflation \u2014 about how dynamic the Chinese economy had become.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And they all said that in order to keep pace with the cost of living, we had to be investors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I think that a lot of people feel that they <em>have<\/em> to be investors \u2014 and that this has some type of upward impact on stocks. And I\u2019d be curious to hear what you think about that \u2014 and what, amongst the clientele you guys service, you\u2019re seeing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-2\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Our clients are relentlessly buying stocks. On any given week, I don\u2019t have great clarity into <em>what<\/em> they\u2019re doing, but I can see, on a daily basis, the 25 most active names on our platform. In any given week, that number ranges from 25 \u2014 all 25 of 25 \u2014 to, in a bad week, 20 of 25 or 21 of 25. Because again, if we go up, let\u2019s chase the rally \u2014 there\u2019s momentum to be had. If it goes down, there\u2019s a dip to be bought \u2014 let\u2019s buy it. To our customers\u2019 credit, some of the biggest numbers \u2014 some of the most biased numbers toward the buy side \u2014 were in April. So, I will say it\u2019s worked for them. Buying the dip has essentially worked relatively unimpeded for the better part of, I don\u2019t know, pick your number of years.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so, if something keeps working for somebody \u2014 for a group, for a large group of people \u2014 they\u2019re going to keep doing it. Now, the perspective here is \u2014 I saw a stat this morning, I wish I could cite it, I forget exactly where I saw it \u2014 but someone estimated that only 4% of portfolio managers were professionally investing during the late \u201990s. I\u2019d also imagine that number, among active investors \u2014 particularly the most active investors, the most active traders \u2014 is probably about right.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that goes back to the tendency of history. History doesn\u2019t repeat, but it often rhymes. And I\u2019ve been seeing rhyming elements to the internet bubble. Again, not repeating \u2014 because there are a lot of constructive differences as well \u2014 but when I start to do the numbers about how much money is required to build out these data centers, it\u2019s got to come from somewhere. And I think back to the example of Global Crossing or Northern Telecom, which were among the companies wiring the world \u2014 and it <em>worked<\/em>. By all means, it was something that needed to be done, but no one made any money from it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I start to wonder \u2014 do the math on Oracle. I put this in one of my columns. If they\u2019ve got a $300 billion data center deal with OpenAI \u2014 sounds fabulous, that\u2019s phenomenal \u2014 they\u2019ve got to spend a lot of money to build the data centers. They\u2019ve already borrowed $18 billion to do it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s the problem: OpenAI \u2014 the last annualized revenue numbers I saw from them were $12 billion a year in revenues, and their cash burn was $8 billion. So how are they going to get enough revenue to fulfill the deal with Oracle, and at what price? That\u2019s where I start to see these parallels. And I will say that a lot of these deals \u2014 I may have used the term <em>incestuous<\/em>, but that\u2019s probably a bit strong \u2014 there\u2019s certainly a lot of circularity to them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-nbsp\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>By any stretch.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-3\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m sorry?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-3\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t see them as being arm\u2019s-length transactions. But the thing that fascinates me is, I was reading a non-financial publication \u2014 there was some new large language learning model that was essentially able to do things, in terms of computing power and synthesizing information and producing workable results, that were hitherto considered to be an impossibility. I remember, I guess as a little boy, I always wanted to be able to walk through the library and touch the spines of books and <em>know<\/em> what was in them. And of course, it\u2019s eluded me. But it seems to me that this AI, at its best application, can do just that.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if you speak to your friends in the medical profession, they talk about the ability to diagnose and discover new treatments \u2014 to come up with new prescription solutions that defy human comprehension. And I often think it\u2019s a lot like maybe in your days when you were on the desk, and your desk was so sophisticated at using computer power to price. And I think that we\u2019re there. So, is it a bubble? Is it a bubble now? I don\u2019t know. It certainly seems to be elements of frothiness. But that said \u2014 if we\u2019re going to ride it up, you want to be long calls and short puts. And if things are going to top, you want to be long puts and short calls. And I think it\u2019s just a trade.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the internet was being built out, a colleague of mine met with Larry Ellison \u2014&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-4\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s that.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-4\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, like now, we were trying to figure out exactly what was going on, and there were all these sorts of conversations. My colleague came back and said \u2014 and I don\u2019t think he ever published this \u2014 that Ellison told him his vision, or his dream, was to have one of his servers \u2014 at least one of his servers \u2014 in everyone\u2019s house, in every company. And I think that\u2019s largely happened.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-5\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s clearly what he\u2019s going for now \u2014 not necessarily in everybody\u2019s house, but with massive data centers, the vision is still the same. And I will stipulate that everything the internet promised came true \u2014 it just didn\u2019t work out financially in the initial way that people had expected or hoped. That\u2019s where the disconnect starts to come in.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, if all these billions of dollars are going to be spent \u2014 right now, companies are being rewarded simply for <em>spending<\/em> the dollars. And to a large extent, many of these companies can. Meta, Microsoft, etc. \u2014 these things are cash flow machines. I think, though, what you\u2019re starting to aim for \u2014 and you do have to wonder if this paradigm is like the Netscape\u2026 is ChatGPT the Netscape browser of the AI era? I still venture to say that the best AI model is probably one that either hasn\u2019t been written yet or is being written by a high school or college kid somewhere. And I used to just say in Silicon Valley, but that can be literally anywhere now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I do start to wonder whether the better AI models aren\u2019t more <em>focused<\/em>, rather than trying to just be masters of everything. I think the better models probably become \u2014 wouldn\u2019t I? I would think if I was a doctor, I\u2019d rather have AI models that are really, very specifically trained on medical data.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-5\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And they exist. The guys are telling me they have AI \u2014 I think Microsoft is very big in this \u2014 where they would otherwise have to spend hours each day transcribing or have a stenographer follow them. The AI enables them to do it like that, freeing them up to see more patients.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-6\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of my friends \u2014 his family business made millions doing transcription of medical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-6\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-7\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>They sold the company, and my friend is very wealthy as a result. But yes.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Steve Sears, we had FAANG. Then we had the Magnificent Seven. And both of those lost their luster, with AI names picking up the leadership. What companies are you seeing that are taking up the front running?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-7\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It would still be the Magnificent Seven, as they say. You look at your top 25 at Interactive Brokers, and I think that\u2019s a pretty decent representation of what\u2019s hot. If you look at the environment in which we operate, what\u2019s hot gets hotter and what\u2019s cold, colder \u2014 until we see something happen.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you go back to the influence of the news cycle and this 24\/7 jackhammer of information \u2014 last week, things were very bad and things were going to go down. This week, things aren\u2019t so bad. And you can choose your name and swap it out week by week. But I think you\u2019re going to continue to see these trends. You\u2019re going to continue to see the Mag Seven. Take a look at Meta a couple of weeks ago \u2014 Meta was trading under the cloud of what the Street politely termed as <em>obscene spending<\/em> on data centers, right? And you\u2019ve seen the stock winnow down \u2014 it\u2019s down 20 points today purportedly on news that they\u2019re going to create their own chip, as opposed to just buying from Nvidia.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019d be willing to bet anybody, sooner or later, that stock\u2019s going to catch a bullish wind and rally. Why? Because someone\u2019s going to come out and say, at a sell-side bank, \u201cI think it\u2019s fairly valued,\u201d or \u201cPeople aren\u2019t looking closely enough at all the merits, such as X, Y, and Z.\u201d And the thing will rise 50 points in a week. And then it\u2019ll rise up. Look at Tesla. Tesla\u2019s another great example. Tesla\u2019s in the gutter \u2014 Tesla\u2019s basically now almost at its all-time high. And you could just swap out everything I said about Meta, tweak it a little bit to make it specific to Tesla \u2014 and there we are.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re in an innovation era, and amazing things are happening all around us. The only question we have now is one of price. And the big guys are going to push it up, and the big guys are going to push it down. Retail\u2019s going to glom onto it and make some money \u2014 although I think, probably, they don\u2019t make nearly as much money as they think they\u2019re going to make. But they\u2019re making money. And as Steve referenced earlier, they\u2019re going to keep on doing it. And I think we\u2019re going to see these big tech names \u2014 you\u2019re going to see anything that can benefit from the allure of AI. If we changed our names to \u201cAI,\u201d Steve, we\u2019d probably \u2014 something great would happen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-8\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That was a big deal. That was a big deal in 1999, where companies would do that.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-8\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So I was there, and I covered Amazon\u2019s IPO at $14. I remember Pets.com. I remember all of the big, hot names. And I remember when Amazon was coming public, the Street was very negative on it, and there was a lot of talk \u2014 when the thing was still being syndicated on the Street \u2014 that it was nothing. And of course, he\u2019s now, I think, one of the richest \u2014 or one of the richest \u2014 and everybody buys their crap off of Amazon.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think we\u2019re just in a transition. And to get back to the point earlier, Andrew, about the wall of worry \u2014 I would put forth that when we\u2019re having conversations like this, and there\u2019s a thousand other people having this conversation, it creates that exquisite tension that offsets most of the concerns. Not all, but most \u2014 because whatever takes us down, we never really see. We didn\u2019t see it in \u201907\u2013\u201908. We <em>did<\/em> see it in \u201999, because <em>Barron\u2019s<\/em> talked about all these companies burning cash flows.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I think the more we talk about it, the less risky it becomes \u2014 which doesn\u2019t mean that it\u2019s not risky, because it\u2019s always risky \u2014 but it enables those of us who know how to define risk to better define it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-9\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To quote Oscar Wilde, \u201cThe only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-9\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oscar Wilde also said, \u201cA burnt child loves the fire.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-10\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Both can be true when it comes to this market, can\u2019t they?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the way, I\u2019ve been trying to make \u201cGatton\u201d a thing \u2014 adding Oracle to the Mag Seven lingo. Somebody then pointed out that I left out Broadcom. I need a \u201cB\u201d somewhere, but we could double another one of the A\u2019s, because its symbol is AVGO.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-10\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2026 that\u2019s extremely\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-11\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Okay.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ll figure that one out. Final question for Steve Sosnick \u2014 you mentioned the ADP report today, loss of jobs for the economy. What\u2019s your prediction for Friday, Steve?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-12\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Nothing. We\u2019re not going to get one.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>No way. What\u2019s\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-13\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What my prediction is \u2014 there have been conflicting reports. In theory, I do believe, actually, the report is done. So I think they <em>could<\/em> report it, because \u2014 you\u2019ll need a better source than this \u2014 but I read somewhere that they actually do it on Tuesday, pre-release it to the people who need to know on Wednesday, etc.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there have been enough comments saying that it\u2019s not coming. So my prediction is: not coming. And somehow, the thing that I will say here is that this is another one of these <em>careful-what-you-wish-for<\/em> things.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Fed is truly data-dependent and you don\u2019t have the jobs report on Friday, and you don\u2019t have BLS releasing PPI and CPI next week \u2014 we did get the core PCE number, which was okay, annualizing to a number that should be well above the Fed\u2019s target \u2014 but again, we\u2019ve been getting that for months and it hasn\u2019t really mattered to anybody anyway. But I do think that has to put a little bit of reticence into the Fed if you\u2019re going to claim data dependency and you don\u2019t have data. So let\u2019s see what happens.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-11\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Where\u2019s the backup generator? They need \u2014 they need a Generac or something!\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-14\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not that \u2014 it\u2019s the people showing up to do it. If I\u2019m not getting paid in\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-12\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When we have all this data produced by the private sector \u2014 which is probably higher quality and is in the lingua franca of the investor class \u2014 I think they can probably figure it out.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We got the private data today, and it\u2019s not particularly pleasant. But again, if they\u2019re going to be data-dependent \u2014 you\u2019re right. To some extent, you can\u2019t fully replicate the government data with the private sector.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-13\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>References \u2014 all data is created equal, but some data is more\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-15\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There we go.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sears-14\"><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m Steve Sears. I write the <em>Striking Price<\/em> column for <em>Barron\u2019s.<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-16\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And I\u2019m Steve Sosnick. 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