{"id":231538,"date":"2025-09-30T13:07:46","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T17:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231538"},"modified":"2025-10-01T03:26:52","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T07:26:52","slug":"should-we-care-about-another-shutdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/should-we-care-about-another-shutdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Should We Care About Another Shutdown?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yesterday afternoon featured a much-anticipated White House meeting between Congressional leaders and the President that was intended to avert a government shutdown.&nbsp; When Vice President Vance <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/vance-says-us-headed-to-a-shutdown-after-meeting-with-democrats\/ar-AA1NA4Cn?ocid=BingNewsSerp\">emerged saying<\/a>, \u201cI think we&#8217;re headed to a shutdown,\u201d that seemed to have sealed the negotiations\u2019 fate.&nbsp; As I type this, there are still more than 12 hours remaining before one occurs, but with the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=723432940%7C20250930%7C0&amp;detail=contract_details\">US Government Shutdown<\/a>\u201d contract on&nbsp; IBKR ForecastTrader showing a roughly 90% probability of a shutdown, it seems increasingly inevitable.&nbsp; Yet investors don\u2019t seem to mind.&nbsp; Should they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The short answer is not really, at least not for now.&nbsp; While it is difficult to spin a shutdown as a positive, it is not an obvious negative \u2013 at least for now.&nbsp; Shutdowns tend to be short-lived and ultimately don\u2019t lead to much lasting damage to the economy or specific companies.&nbsp; They occur regardless of who controls the Presidency, the Senate or the House, and history shows that they neither offer much of an impact to stocks in either the short- or long-term.&nbsp; I offer the following chart, courtesy of my friend Steve Wyett at BOK Financial:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"831\" height=\"952\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-53.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Performance During and After Government Shutdown\" class=\"wp-image-231543 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-53.png 831w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-53-700x802.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-53-300x344.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-53-768x880.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 831px) 100vw, 831px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 831px; aspect-ratio: 831\/952;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: BOK Financial<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past 40 years, we\u2019ve had 22 shutdowns, though the bulk of them occurred during the Carter and Reagan administrations.&nbsp; The average length of a shutdown is 8.2 days, with a median of 4 days.&nbsp; That is not enough time to significantly impair an economy or market.&nbsp; We also see that both the mean and the median return over those events is just above zero.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The results actually look better if we constrain ourselves to the current century.&nbsp; We had four shutdowns so far, with one under Obama in 2013, and three under Trump in 2018.&nbsp; The first two in the first Trump administration lasted only 1 and 2 days, respectively.&nbsp; The Obama shutdown was a more substantial 16 days, and third Trump shutdown stretched 34 days, from just before Christmas 2018 through most of January 2019.&nbsp; All showed positive returns over those periods, with a double-digit bump in the most recent event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At this point, it is important to remember the nature of markets.&nbsp; If an unpleasant event is widely expected \u2013 and government shutdowns are certainly well-reported and widely anticipated \u2013 it often results in \u201csell the rumor, buy the news.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp; In 2013, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was moving sideways to lower as the shutdown loomed.&nbsp; We then saw a modest selloff in the midst of the shutdown, and stocks resumed their upward path afterwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-september-16-to-october-31-2013\"><strong><em>SPX September 16 to October 31, 2013<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"951\" height=\"590\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-8.jpg\" alt=\"SPX September 16 to October 31, 2013\" class=\"wp-image-231541 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-8.jpg 951w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-8-700x434.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-8-300x186.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-8-768x476.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 951px) 100vw, 951px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 951px; aspect-ratio: 951\/590;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The situation in December 2018 was far different.&nbsp; The Federal Reserve had been raising rates throughout the year, and stocks fell in response.&nbsp; We had \u201cVolmaggedon\u201d in February, recovered to fresh highs in September, and sank 10% again in October.&nbsp;&nbsp; An attempted recovery stalled at the end of November, and stocks began to sink further before the shutdown.&nbsp; The FOMC met on December 19<sup>th<\/sup> and raised rates for the final time in that cycle.&nbsp; In hindsight, it is difficult to disentangle how much of the 10.3% rally that occurred during that shutdown was the result of a changing Fed rate cycle, the January effect, and easing governmental tensions.&nbsp; The big bounce only recouped the levels that prevailed during the shutdown, though the rate cutting cycle boosted stocks in the ensuing year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-november-7-2018-february-15-2019\"><strong><em>SPX November 7, 2018 \u2013 February 15, 2019<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1011\" height=\"629\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-6.jpg\" alt=\"SPX November 7, 2018 \u2013 February 15, 2019\" class=\"wp-image-231540 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-6.jpg 1011w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-6-700x436.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-6-300x187.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-6-768x478.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1011px) 100vw, 1011px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1011px; aspect-ratio: 1011\/629;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would seem as though the 2013 scenario would be better precedent for the current situation, even if the current political lineup is identical to that of 2018.&nbsp; The earlier example was a relatively low volatility environment with stock prices modestly reflecting the impending news.&nbsp; The 2018-2019 scenario was a high volatility environment coming at the culmination of a difficult year for stock investors.&nbsp; That is hardly the case now.&nbsp; Hence, investors are not necessarily wrong to be relatively sanguine ahead of another government shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fed-funds-rate-2017-2019\"><strong><em>Fed Funds Rate 2017-2019<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"987\" height=\"612\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-5.jpg\" alt=\"Fed Funds Rate 2017-2019\" class=\"wp-image-231539 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-5.jpg 987w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-5-700x434.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-5-300x186.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-5-768x476.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 987px) 100vw, 987px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 987px; aspect-ratio: 987\/612;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-in-2018\"><strong><em>SPX in 2018<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"996\" height=\"618\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-7.jpg\" alt=\"SPX in 2018\" class=\"wp-image-231542 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-7.jpg 996w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-7-700x434.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-7-300x186.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/image-7-768x477.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 996px) 100vw, 996px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 996px; aspect-ratio: 996\/618;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday afternoon featured a much-anticipated White House meeting between Congressional leaders and the President that was intended to avert a government shutdown.\u00a0 When Vice President Vance emerged saying, \u201cI think we&#8217;re headed to a shutdown,\u201d that seemed to have sealed the negotiations\u2019 fate.\u00a0 As I type this, there are still more than 12 hours remaining before one occurs, but with the \u201cUS Government Shutdown\u201d contract on\u00a0 IBKR ForecastTrader showing a roughly 90% probability of a shutdown, it seems increasingly inevitable.\u00a0 Yet investors don\u2019t seem to mind.\u00a0 Should they?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":231547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-231538","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Should We Care About Another Shutdown? | 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the negotiations\u2019 fate.\u00a0 As I type this, there are still more than 12 hours remaining before one occurs, but with the \u201cUS Government Shutdown\u201d contract on\u00a0 IBKR ForecastTrader showing a roughly 90% probability of a shutdown, it seems increasingly inevitable.\u00a0 Yet investors don\u2019t seem to mind.\u00a0 Should they?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/should-we-care-about-another-shutdown\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-30T17:07:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-01T07:26:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/government-shutdown-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" 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