{"id":231522,"date":"2025-09-30T12:45:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T16:45:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231522"},"modified":"2025-09-30T13:56:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T17:56:00","slug":"forecast-traders-gear-up-for-shutdown-trades-on-eu-inflation-and-singapore-rate-s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-traders-gear-up-for-shutdown-trades-on-eu-inflation-and-singapore-rate-s\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Traders Gear Up for Shutdown, Trades on EU Inflation and Singapore Rate: Sep. 30, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

IBKR Forecast Traders are gearing up for a government shutdown at midnight as officials from the GOP and the Democratic Party remain at odds over Medicaid cuts and the extension of health insurance subsidies. Democrats want concessions to keep Washington open, but Republicans aren\u2019t budging. The probability of federal closure reached an all-time high for this specific contract of 89% this morning before settling into 86% <\/a>at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EU Inflation Has a Subdued Deviation Rate<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The European Union\u2019s Consumer Price Index has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to arrive near projections. Historically, this indicator rarely misses or beats by more than 0.1%, leading to tomorrow\u2019s result likely falling in a range between 2.1% and 2.3%, since the median estimate is at 2.2%. In light of the dynamic, the forecast trader thresholds at 1.2%, 1.6%, 2% and 2.4% offer favorable risk-reward dynamics, in my opinion. The \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at 1.2%, 1.6% and 2% are going for $0.97, $0.97 and $0.81, while the \u201cNo\u201d at 2.4% is costing $0.98.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Singapore\u2019s Rate Has Been on An Uptrend<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The volatile Singapore Overnight Rate Average has been on an uptrend in the past few weeks despite hitting a year-to-date low in early September. Against this backdrop, the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> contract at 0.9% looks especially attractive at $0.93, a level that has only been breached twice this year and it appears unlikely for it to be crossed tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 30, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/us-capitol-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=231522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231522\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/214132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=231522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=231522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=231522"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=231522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}