{"id":231450,"date":"2025-09-29T12:45:19","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T16:45:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231450"},"modified":"2025-09-29T14:22:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T18:22:35","slug":"government-shutdown-appears-likely-tomorrows-trade-ideas-for-jolts-baltic-dry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/government-shutdown-appears-likely-tomorrows-trade-ideas-for-jolts-baltic-dry\/","title":{"rendered":"Government Shutdown Appears Likely, Tomorrow\u2019s Trade Ideas for JOLTS, Baltic Dry: Sep. 29, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The US government is likely to enter a partial or full shutdown this Wednesday, October 1, with odds hovering at a 73% chance at the moment. On Saturday, the contract traded at a record for this specific event, reaching 81%. Following weeks without meaningful progress between President Trump, GOP officials and Democratic party leaders, negotiators are finally meeting for talks today at the White House. The main areas of concern are Medicaid cuts stemming from the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the upcoming expiration of health insurance subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"97\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-8-1100x97.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding potential US government shutdown. \" class=\"wp-image-231453 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-8-1100x97.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-8-700x62.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-8-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-8-768x68.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-8.jpg 1326w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/97;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-prediction-market-prices-a-jolts-beat\"><strong>Prediction Market Prices a JOLTS Beat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s job openings number is expected to arrive at 7.1 million, according to the economist consensus estimate, but the 50-50 level in our prediction market is at 7.2 million, signaling that participants believe there\u2019s a higher chance of an upside beat compared to a downside miss. Investors may be taking their cue from high-frequency statistics from Indeed, which point to a climb in vacancies rather than a reduction. In consideration of July\u2019s JOLTS number coming in at 7.181 million, if both sources reflect an increase, than the $0.50 \u201cYes\u201d at 7.2 million would pay out $1.00, unless the gain was marginal and\/or July gets revised much lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-6.jpg\" alt=\"Historical US job openings\" class=\"wp-image-231454 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-6.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-6-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-6-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-6-768x558.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-7-1100x102.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding US job openings\" class=\"wp-image-231455 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-7-1100x102.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-7-700x65.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-7-300x28.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-7-768x72.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-7.jpg 1321w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-baltic-dry-index-to-exceed-1-700\"><strong>Baltic Dry Index to Exceed 1,700<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Baltic Dry Index has been pretty stable in the past few weeks, featuring a 4- week moving average at 2,003. Meanwhile, the figure has been above 1,700 in every publication since July 10 and there\u2019s no evidence of a plunge in the cost of transporting dry materials by sea via ships, which is what the gauge measures. In light of the historical trends and the recent range-bound pattern of crude oil prices, I think the \u201cYes\u201d contract at 1,700 is undervalued at $0.81.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"98\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-7-1100x98.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Baltic Dry Index.\" class=\"wp-image-231456 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-7-1100x98.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-7-700x62.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-7-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-7-768x69.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-7.jpg 1322w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/98;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US Government is likely to enter a partial or full shutdown this Wednesday, October 1, with odds hovering at a 73% chance at the moment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-231450","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Government Shutdown Appears Likely, Tomorrow\u2019s Trade Ideas for JOLTS, Baltic 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Government Shutdown Appears Likely, Tomorrow\u2019s Trade Ideas for JOLTS, Baltic Dry: Sep. 29, 2025","description":"The US Government is likely to enter a partial or full shutdown this Wednesday, October 1, with odds hovering at a 73% chance at the 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