{"id":231447,"date":"2025-09-29T12:52:58","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T16:52:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231447"},"modified":"2025-09-29T12:58:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T16:58:55","slug":"can-chinas-new-playbook-power-global-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/can-chinas-new-playbook-power-global-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Can China\u2019s New Playbook Power Global Growth?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>China is rewriting its growth story &#8211; shifting from real estate reliance to innovation, AI, and green tech. In this episode, Xiaolin Chen of KraneShares joins host Andrew Wilkinson to break down China\u2019s latest policy shifts, trade dynamics, and the upcoming Five-Year Plan shaping the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Can China\u2019s New Playbook Power Global Growth?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=y6z4h-197b8bc-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-299\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 299<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this week\u2019s podcast. My name\u2019s Andrew Wilkinson with Interactive Brokers. Now, the new world order has changed abruptly in the months since Donald Trump took office. Global political leaders and economists are trying to deal with the rapid changes, not least in China. Helping us understand the response and reaction from within the world\u2019s second-largest economy is Xiaolin Chen, Head of International at KraneShares in London.\u00a0<br>Xiaolin, welcome back to the program.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you for having me.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So tell us, how has China\u2019s recent macroeconomic policy shift impacted both domestic growth and global economic dynamics?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen-0\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think that\u2019s a great question. China has been an emerging country for years. That means policies in those countries matter the most. They really give the directions of sectors and industries, investment trends, and also impact a lot of direct household disposable income.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the last two or three years, it\u2019s become very apparent that China has been heavily focusing on its domestic consumption. All the policies centered around monetary and fiscal measures \u2014 cutting rates, helping mortgages, reducing even saving rates and borrowing rates for corporates \u2014 all those are centered around the question: how can we create liquidity for corporates? How can we create more wealth for households? Clearly, it\u2019s a very domestic consumption-focused policy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They have been designed, or they have continued, to support the market on seeking high-quality growth. It used to be, in the early 2000s, if you remember, that everything was \u201cMade in China.\u201d They didn\u2019t care what you ordered \u2014 they manufactured anything. But over the last 20 years, it has been very steadily shifting towards high-quality exports and manufacturing. They also want to focus on achieving high-quality growth domestically as well.\u00a0That includes, you know, in the old industrial manufacturing sectors \u2014 wanting to automate them, to replace them with robotics, and also, at the other end of the economy, asking: how can we rebalance it to a more resilient model, one that relies less on industry building things, and more on services \u2014 like the United States, like the United Kingdom, like other developed countries. So obviously, these are big trends happening. Policy also rebalances the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the other thing I would mention \u2014 and I\u2019ll pause there \u2014 is all the efforts they\u2019ve put into reducing reliance on the property sector. You\u2019ve heard about China\u2019s correction in real estate. Everyone says, \u201cOh, their real estate is going down the hill.\u201d Yes, I agree. I\u2019ve been a long-term bear on real estate. But there is a bottom to it. The policies being active, I\u2019d say, mean the fall for the real estate sector is going to be more moderate, more settled. You will see a lot of rebounds in certain sectors going forward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it\u2019s a good thing \u2014 they are now less reliant on property sectors and more encouraged toward innovation and technology. This year, who would have expected deep sea exploration to happen? Who would have expected China suddenly introducing all these robotic automations? Who would have expected Alibaba to say, \u201cYou know what? I\u2019m going to solely rely on my own developed chip for AI development\u201d?\u00a0So I think all these headwinds and challenges, actually, China has navigated through them already, and now it\u2019s facing a new chapter.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You mentioned technology and innovation there. What are the key drivers behind China\u2019s rapid advancements in technology and innovation, and how do they compare to those in other major economies?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen-1\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Another great question. This is, excuse me, almost a topic in any conferences or interactions you have \u2014 people are always asking what is happening. And to be fair to China\u2019s government, at least those policymakers, they quickly recognized, \u201cYou know what? We are behind. Okay? We are way behind the United States. We\u2019re way behind big companies in Europe designing the IP of the chip. We\u2019re way behind that.\u201d\u00a0And then over the last, I\u2019d say, four or five years, they said, \u201cYou know what? We are going to catch up. We have to catch up as a matter of national security for the next development of the next generation.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So they have significantly \u2014 I mean, in a big way, billions if not trillions of dollars \u2014 invested from the government into R&amp;D and tech infrastructure, period. The end. They\u2019re recruiting the talent.\u00a0If you look around, they actually have the talent. It\u2019s really about how they use them, how they leverage them. If you look at the big tech companies, how many \u2014 let\u2019s call them Asian faces \u2014 are there? So intellectually, they\u2019re not short. It\u2019s about how they\u2019re going to focus on it, how they\u2019re going to encourage and subsidize all the proper investments allocated to R&amp;D in those sectors.\u00a0They\u2019re going to encourage them \u2014 which they did. For instance, China also has a separate equity board. Like the U.S. has the S&amp;P, NASDAQ, all these \u2014 they have another board under their main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange called STAR Market. That is a science and technology innovation board. That\u2019s China\u2019s own NASDAQ \u2014 they don\u2019t like it to be called that way, but it\u2019s true.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s for all those Chinese unicorns that come forward and say, \u201cYou know what? We are doing something special. We\u2019re doing something different.\u201d And then the government says, \u201cCome forward, list your company publicly, and I will reimburse your R&amp;D expenses.\u201d How about that?\u00a0So a lot of those programs have been happening for nearly, I\u2019d say, about 10 years already, with those efforts in place for those companies to go forward.\u00a0This is one thing. And second is really, from top down, a strategic focus \u2014 to say, \u201cWe are going to focus on AI. We\u2019re going to focus on 5G. We\u2019re going to focus on green tech.\u201d That is a top-down instruction. It\u2019s probably one good thing about a country led by one party \u2014 the instruction gets delivered from the top down, and they go and implement.\u00a0 So the whole country was like, \u201cYou know what? We\u2019ve got to focus on this.\u201d\u00a0What they\u2019ve really achieved is truly remarkable \u2014 for any country to be able to achieve in such a short period of time.\u00a0I think if they\u2019re compared to other economies, China obviously benefited from the scale the country offers, and also the coordinated policy within the country.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But of course, they face challenges in core technology like semiconductors. The design continues to be the case for them to catch up.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s turn to U.S.\u2013China trade tensions and the evolving global supply chain influencing China\u2019s economic outlook and its role in the global market.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen-2\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, you know, the U.S. and China \u2014 world\u2019s number one and number two. Okay. We don\u2019t want them to be best buddies. As long as they talk to each other constructively, finding a very constructive way, beneficial for both nations to move things forward \u2014 that is important. We need a number one and a number two for the world order, for this to continue to work. Both sides are talking, which is very encouraging to see.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They have had four rounds of talks in four months \u2014 in Geneva, in Europe, in Madrid last week. All the streets are talking, which is important. I\u2019m, you know, a lot of investors feel very encouraged to see both sides putting that effort forward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But domestically, behind closed doors, China is increasingly now pushing for technology self-resilience. Okay \u2014 self-sufficiency \u2014 because they know the challenge they face externally. They know this is not a one-off, and they know they have to build up domestic sourcing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So this kind of push actually helps them to mature \u2014 to be more resilient, more able to come up with more of the sectors that they can be all self-resilient in.\u00a0And some foreign companies are also, you know, relocating manufacturing from China to somewhere else. That\u2019s the low-value chain industries. China is no longer manufacturing cheap T-shirts. They are manufacturing robots. They are manufacturing electric cars. They are the number one in the solar panel industries.\u00a0Those are huge takes for them \u2014 leading in the green tech space \u2014 which is a good achievement for them to have done in the last few years.\u00a0At the end of the day, I think China will have to create more opportunities to work together with global companies \u2014 not just themselves winning, of course, but it should be a win-win situation.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But China remains, I think, integral \u2014 it is a central part of overall global manufacturing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What sectors or industries are expected to lead China\u2019s next phase of economic growth \u2014 especially in light of what you just said, its focus on tech self-sufficiency?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen-3\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A great question. That is what all these sectors are booming in China today. Some we already touched base on, like renewable energy. This will continue to be the case, and they\u2019re very determined to achieve their carbon goal and continue to roll out.\u00a0Like the EVs now in Shenzhen \u2014 like a Silicon Valley equivalent in the United States, a city in China \u2014 Shenzhen and Guangzhou are almost one hundred percent new cars sold in those cities are EVs, electric vehicles. Okay? One hundred percent. The adoption is really quick in China, so that is very encouraging. They continue to push forward in that instance.\u00a0I think renewable energy \u2014 namely solar, EV, batteries \u2014 those will continue to be the sectors they focus on. I think they will continue to be dominant and lead. Their own domestic market is sufficient enough for companies to continue to supply there.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I do say the industry, such as electric vehicles in China, does require consolidation. They are growing. We don\u2019t need hundreds and hundreds of EV brands. Okay? We need EVs, but we don\u2019t need hundreds of Chinese EV brands. Some of the manufacturers are making products at a loss, which is not making any economic sense, but they are gaining market share. I think some consolidation would be needed at some point in that industry, but that\u2019s going to continue to grow to a certain extent.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And also, I\u2019d say advanced manufacturing and automation in China. A lot of the low labor cost manufacturers are using robots. Robots are everywhere. I mentioned or shared with your audience last time \u2014 when I was in Guangzhou, in the hotel \u2014 a normal hotel, not five-star, not a big chain \u2014 they\u2019re already using robots in the lobby, okay?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To serve clients, to welcome you to the hotel, to deliver food. Little tummy can be opened \u2014 the food gets stored into their tummy, okay? And then they go to your floor \u2014 \u201cHere you go, Andrew, this is your order.\u201d It\u2019s actually good. If you order some food in the middle of the night, you don\u2019t want to put your clothes on or pajamas and open the door \u2014 you open the door, the robot gives you your food and says bye-bye. You don\u2019t want to see them, right?\u00a0It\u2019s already happening in China in those industries. Some petrol stations even use robots \u2014 they work 24 hours. They don\u2019t need rest. They work and they pump petrol for clients, for customers. It\u2019s very automated. I think you\u2019re going to continue to see that happening \u2014 that they advance from low labor cost and continue to climb up the high-value chain.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I think healthcare \u2014 China\u2019s aging population \u2014 healthcare technology, innovation in those sectors are continuing to develop. Private hospitals continue to grow.\u00a0And I want to mention two last sectors, which are the most important sectors happening in China \u2014 they\u2019re going to be valid for decades. One is high-tech \u2014 AI, 5G, semiconductors. It\u2019s going to continue to boom. You\u2019re not going to only see one DeepSeek \u2014 you\u2019re going to see many DeepSeeks continue to happen, okay?\u00a0And robotics \u2014 if you go to China, you\u2019ll be amazed to see how the robotic humanoid developments are happening. A lot of the robots are being put into home care to help the aging population: \u201cGive me a bottle of water, give me my tablet, give me my pill, I\u2019m going to eat it, chat with me, talk with me, switch on the video.\u201d All those basic care tasks \u2014 they already use robotics to talk to them, to socialize, to interact with patients. That\u2019s already in place and implemented.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And lastly, what China has the most \u2014 and all the investors need to access, benefit, and invest in \u2014 is people. China has the most population. The benefit from that is e-commerce \u2014 the digital economy. That\u2019s going to be the key for you to hold onto almost for another decade.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason I say that is \u2014 it used to be only 50% of the Chinese population lived in the city. We call that the urbanization rate. Now it\u2019s approaching 66%. The goal \u2014 to achieve U.S. or U.K.-like developed markets \u2014 is 80\u201390%. You do the math.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s another 20\u201330% of the population \u2014 of 1.4 billion people \u2014 that need to move to cities. Say 30% \u2014 that\u2019s 420 million people moving to cities. That\u2019s more than the United States population \u2014 330 million \u2014 moving to cities just in China itself.\u00a0Imagine the entire United States population having to move to cities. What are they going to spend? What are they going to use? How are they going to serve their modern lives?\u00a0We need e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD \u2014 all those companies. You know, China CSI \u2014 China Internet Index Fund \u2014 we have that index structured. Those names are the names servicing households, servicing individuals, servicing the moment.\u00a0Eight hundred and eighty million people living in cities today \u2014 serving them on a daily basis. Those are the sectors you need to benefit from.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Wow. Very exciting things going on in China. Xiaolin, talk next about the regulatory changes in China that are affecting the tech sector and also investor sentiment. What\u2019s happening in that space?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen-4\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It was quite a hurtful situation back in 2020\u20132021, if everyone still remembers. Those were like a nightmare time. We experienced a pandemic \u2014 and nothing to laugh about during the pandemic \u2014 and at the same time, they put a lot of regulation on top.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019d say if we still remember those dark times \u2014 I look back, hindsight \u2014 this is really hindsight. When you go through them, we didn\u2019t like them, but in hindsight, they put the framework \u2014 like anti-monopoly, data security, all the privacy \u2014 all these things like GDPR equivalent in the UK.\u00a0We have all in place back then. We\u2019re glad they did that because this market is so huge, so massive. We need the regulation to be in place. They did put those all in place back then, which has hurt the market sentiment. But it\u2019s comfortable and confident to say those regulations are behind us now.\u00a0You see all the regulations clearly outlined \u2014 what they\u2019re trying to achieve is to get bad apples out, create long-term aims, long-term goals, and create a stable, sustainable ecosystem for the technology.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All the regulation introduced thereafter didn\u2019t create any market volatility. People understand why they do it. The communication from the regulator is clearly getting better. Investors understand what they do, why they do it, and when they expect this to be complete \u2014 which I\u2019m pleased to see. They\u2019re actually encouraging the technology companies to come forward and do more IPOs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Now coming up, we\u2019ve got the 15th Five-Year Plan, which would cover the 2026\u20132030 time period. What can we expect to be announced next month, in October?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen-5\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That is a brilliant question \u2014 to conclude, or at least to summarize, what is China going on at the moment, or what is China aiming at? This Five-Year Plan is like a New Year\u2019s resolution you and I have for the new year, and the Chinese government has a Five-Year Plan \u2014 their every five-year agenda \u2014 for the government to achieve for the nation.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is, obviously, the last one was the 14th Five-Year Plan, which covers until 2025 \u2014 this year. And then the next one is going to be introduced in October, in a few weeks\u2019 time, for the next five years. People are aiming to say: what is your resolution? What is your plan? What is the government focused on?\u00a0That\u2019s why, you know, probably why you asked me the question \u2014 what is their agenda? Their agenda would be very clear on a few things, and they will surprise us with a few other things. But a few things are very clear: technology and innovation, absolutely at front and center.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, it\u2019s the people \u2014 the e-commerce, the consumption. How are they going to create more wealth for the people? How are they going to continue to, you know, feed this 1.4 billion people \u2014 to increase their disposable income for them to continue, you know, to enjoy the life they have been living?\u00a0So I think in the next Five-Year Plan, it would very much be centered and focused on technology innovation, AI, and then healthcare technology, and like things we mentioned \u2014 and the people, on the job creation, and also the consumer \u2014 how they\u2019re going to continue to help the consumer, help the household disposable income.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Xiaolin Chen, Head of International at KraneShares. As ever, a huge pleasure, and thank you for joining me on today\u2019s episode.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-xiaolin-chen-6\"><strong>Xiaolin Chen<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And to the audience \u2014 if you enjoyed this episode, please remember to subscribe to our channel wherever you download your podcasts from. Thanks, everybody.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China is rewriting its growth story &#8211; shifting from real estate reliance to innovation, AI, and green tech. 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