{"id":231429,"date":"2025-09-29T11:09:15","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T15:09:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231429"},"modified":"2025-09-29T11:09:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T15:09:29","slug":"the-biggest-change-since-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/the-biggest-change-since-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"The Biggest Change Since 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Quant traders, I\u2019ve got a confession.&nbsp; When the pundits say, \u201cThis is the longest stretch since\u2026\u201d I groan.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do the \u201csince\u201d stats have any meaning?&nbsp; \u201cWe\u2019ve had the longest stretch of consecutive gains for stocks since (fill in the blank).\u201d&nbsp; The most down days in a row since (blank).&nbsp; Pick the statistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Okay, with that qualifier, we\u2019ve had the longest stretch for Broad Sentiment between 5.0-5.99 since the summer of 2018.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Go ahead and laugh!&nbsp; I did too.&nbsp; <strong>You users of EDGE know that Broad Sentiment<\/strong> is our risk-management tool, a way to see waxing and waning Demand and Supply in US stocks.&nbsp; Broad Sentiment has been at least 5.0 on the ten-point scale, but not over 6.0, for 21 straight days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>That ties the mark set Jul 21-Aug 21, 2018.<\/em>&nbsp; The only longer period that I can find in the EDGE data set back to mid-2017 was Oct 16-Dec 1, 2017, 34 days of above-average bliss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Were either of those meaningful?&nbsp; Well, maybe.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Jul-Aug 2018 period preceded the bear market (barely, as intraday in late December the market dropped 20% but was officially down 19.5%) of 2018 that came in two waves, one in October, the second in December that year.&nbsp; And 2017 was just an epic year for positive conditions, until it ended in a large pileup in Feb 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>I\u2019ll give you one more.<\/strong>&nbsp; Short volume (Supply, the Reg SHO Rule 201 data set) marketwide has now fallen below the 200-day average for the first time in a long while.&nbsp; At 51%, it drips a drop below 51.2%, the 200-day read.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>There IS something important to know here.&nbsp; We\u2019re talking about Demand\/Supply trends.&nbsp; This is the essence of EDGE. It\u2019s what the entire platform is about.&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Demand has been fine but tepid for a record post-Pandemic stretch. Money isn\u2019t flooding into equities. It\u2019s diffusing like scent from a candle. It\u2019s entropy, expanding to fill the available space. Moving, maybe, from order to disorder.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Supply side is the reason for gains<\/strong>. I say gains but the S&amp;P 500 is slightly lower now than it was Sep 18.&nbsp; Declining Supply will support the market. But not indefinitely.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuesday is the end of the quarter.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Small trade-size. Small gains. Small price-moves.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>What causes these conditions? Sure, fractional trades. But bigger are automated trading systems. Machines.&nbsp; If the aim of most orders in the stock market is a tenth of a penny per share with risk of loss near zero, you get a marketplace that looks like this one.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Is there anything wrong with that?&nbsp; <\/strong>Well, yes. Machines aren\u2019t motivated by what\u2019s observable. Machines run calculations until the math stops working. Hard to say when that may happen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I can tell you this: Demand is barely positive.&nbsp; Supply has fallen for ten days. That rarely happens and one more day matches the longest period in the past year. Now, maybe we get a burst of Demand to conclude the quarter.&nbsp; If not, this record-setting run between 5-6 is going to end.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And unless there\u2019s a surge of new money for the new month and quarter, we might see the worst stretch in a long time for stocks.&nbsp; But who knows?&nbsp; It\u2019s math, and the math has no emotion.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PS \u2013 For more, attend the <a href=\"https:\/\/calendly.com\/marketstructureedge\/group-market-structure-edge-demo?month=2025-10&amp;date=2025-10-02\">free live EDGE Demo<\/a> this week!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Demand has been fine but tepid for a record post-Pandemic stretch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1157,"featured_media":191137,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[339,338,341],"tags":[1006,494],"contributors-categories":[15343],"class_list":{"0":"post-231429","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-ibkr-quant-news","9":"category-quant-development","10":"tag-fintech","11":"tag-quant","12":"contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Biggest Change Since 2018 | IBKR Quant<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Demand has been fine 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