{"id":231323,"date":"2025-09-26T12:54:30","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T16:54:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231323"},"modified":"2025-09-26T15:21:30","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T19:21:30","slug":"government-shutdown-odds-up-to-70-mamdanis-lead-widens-bank-of-australia-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/government-shutdown-odds-up-to-70-mamdanis-lead-widens-bank-of-australia-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Government Shutdown Odds Up To 70%, Mamdani\u2019s Lead Widens, Bank of Australia Trade: Sep. 26, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The probability of a partial or full government shutdown beginning on Oct. 1 has risen steadily this week and now stands at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=723432940%7C20250930%7C0&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">70%<\/a>, a new high for this specific contract. As of this morning, there are no plans for the White House to negotiate with Democratic leaders. Members on both sides of the aisle are essentially blaming folks from the opposite party for failing to reach a timely solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"99\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture10-5-1100x99.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking of US government will enter partial or full shutdown on Oct. 1\" class=\"wp-image-231327 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture10-5-1100x99.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture10-5-700x63.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture10-5-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture10-5-768x69.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture10-5.jpg 1338w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/99;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nyc-s-mamdani-traded-at-86-this-morning\"><strong>NYC\u2019s Mamdani Traded at 86% This Morning<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mamdani traded at the record of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=796056051%7C20251129%7C4&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">86%<\/a> again this morning after hitting the figure a few days ago while former state Governor Andrew Cuomo hovered at 13%. All other candidates are essentially off the board at this point, as the New York City mayoral race turns into a head-to-head election. Open contracts related to this contest are nearing 3.75 million as residents of the Big Apple prepare to vote on Nov. 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"505\" height=\"457\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture11-4.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding NY city mayoral election \" class=\"wp-image-231326 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture11-4.jpg 505w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture11-4-300x271.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 505px) 100vw, 505px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 505px; aspect-ratio: 505\/457;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-undervalued-contract-related-to-australian-rate-decision\"><strong>Undervalued Contract Related to Australian Rate Decision<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has an 87% probability of pausing when it meets next week, according to IBKR ForecastTrader participants. But what\u2019s odd is that the \u2018Yes\u201d contract asking if the institution will lower by 50 basis points (bps) or more costs $0.06; however, a similar instrument asking if the RBA will reduce by 25 bps is going for $0.03. That\u2019s a mispricing that can occur in modern, new markets like ours, and the undervalued opportunity here is the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=798491023%7C20250929%7C5&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> related to decreasing the benchmark by 50 bps or more. It\u2019s costing $0.92 and would pay out a $1.00 if rates are lifted, left unchanged, or reduced by 25 bps. Furthermore, if the consensus move is a hold, then a reduction of 50bps or more shouldn\u2019t have a greater likelihood than a trim of 25 bps. While a surprise 25 is possible, expectations generally don\u2019t shift from steady to down 50 in a blink of an eye across central banks in developed nations.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"98\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture12-2-1100x98.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if reserve bank of Australia will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting\" class=\"wp-image-231329 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture12-2-1100x98.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture12-2-700x62.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture12-2-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture12-2-768x68.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture12-2.jpg 1330w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/98;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"502\" height=\"453\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture13-1.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. \" class=\"wp-image-231330 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture13-1.jpg 502w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture13-1-300x271.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 502px) 100vw, 502px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 502px; aspect-ratio: 502\/453;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 26, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circle around the threshold was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answer.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The probability of a partial or full government shutdown beginning on Oct. 1 has risen steadily this week and now stands at 70%, a new high for this specific contract.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-231323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Government Shutdown Odds Up To 70%, Mamdani\u2019s 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Government Shutdown Odds Up To 70%, Mamdani\u2019s Lead Widens, Bank of Australia Trade: Sep. 26, 2025","description":"The probability of a partial or full government shutdown beginning on Oct. 1 has risen steadily this week and now stands at 70%, a new high for 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