{"id":231218,"date":"2025-09-25T13:17:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T17:17:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231218"},"modified":"2025-09-25T14:52:51","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T18:52:51","slug":"team-no-on-tomorrows-overall-pce-and-umich-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/team-no-on-tomorrows-overall-pce-and-umich-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cTeam No\u201d On Tomorrow\u2019s Overall PCE and UMich Sentiment: Sep. 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Overall \u201cNo\u201d Is Undervalued, Core \u201cNo\u201d Is Closer to Fair Price<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s PCE inflation report is expected to reflect year-over-year increases of 2.7% and 2.9% across the overall and core segments. They align with my own projections. Meanwhile, the \u201cNo\u201d at 2.7%<\/a> for the overall gauge looks undervalued at just $0.48 since it would pay out $1.00 on an in-line print or a downside miss. The same isn\u2019t true for the \u201cNo\u201d at 2.9% for core, in my opinion; however, it\u2019s closer to fair value at $0.74. Finally, these indicators are well telegraphed by Wall Street and carry light deviation rates, meaning that they tend to arrive near forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UMich Sentiment Revisions Are Historically Light<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

History suggests that tomorrow\u2019s consumer sentiment print from the University of Michigan (UMich) will arrive near the initial 55.4 figure. Meanwhile, a revision of +2.7 has occurred only twice in 10 years, but that\u2019s what\u2019s required for \u201cTeam No\u201d to lose at 58. I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNos\u201d<\/a> at 58 and 60 attractive. The thresholds are going for $0.89 and $0.94.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 25, 2025.<\/em> Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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