{"id":231122,"date":"2025-09-24T12:51:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T16:51:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231122"},"modified":"2025-09-24T15:10:20","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T19:10:20","slug":"ibkr-prediction-market-projects-a-quarter-point-cut-from-banxico-trades-that-expire-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/ibkr-prediction-market-projects-a-quarter-point-cut-from-banxico-trades-that-expire-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"IBKR Prediction Market Projects a Quarter-Point Cut from Banxico, Trades That Expire Tomorrow: Sep. 24, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The IBKR ForecastTrader platform places an 86% likelihood<\/a> of the Bank of Mexico cutting its key rate 25 basis points tomorrow. Meanwhile, there are 7% odds for an unchanged benchmark as well as the same 7% probability for a reduction of 50 or more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Shorting Economic Volatility Every Week<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A new instrument in our prediction market features the weekly economic index from the Dallas Fed. The indicator offers participants the opportunity to consistently take positions that benefit from a lack of economic volatility by purchasing contracts on the tails. For example, the four-week moving average of the gauge stands at 2.48 and has generally hovered in the mid 2s all year. So due to an absence of significant recent turbulence in the economy, we\u2019d expect a number in the mid 2s tomorrow. Against this backdrop, folks may consider buying the \u201cYes\u201d at 1.6%<\/a> and the \u201cNo\u201d at 3.6% and repeat a similar process weekly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Claims Probably Stay Above 220K In the Next Few Prints<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Recent labor market softening suggests that weekly initial unemployment claims will remain above 220k in tomorrow morning\u2019s release. The median estimate reads at 235k, and of the 37 forecasters participating in the monthly Reuters survey, the minimum stands at 225k while the maximum is at 250k. Similarly, I\u2019m maintaining a higher bias and am avoiding the \u201cNos\u201d here due to a potential spike. I like the risk-reward profile of the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 220k, which is going for $0.86.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

China Freight Index Likely To Arrive Around 1,200<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s freight index has been pretty stable and is probably arriving around 1,200 tomorrow. Meanwhile, the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> and \u201cNo\u201d contracts at 1,000 and 1,500 are going for $0.96 each and a break above or below those levels are highly unlikely. The trades along the two thresholds offer a favorable risk-reward dynamic in my opinion.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GDP, Recession Trades<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

US GDP revisions are typically marginal and a 1.2% downgrade in tomorrow\u2019s final reading is highly unlikely. Consider that the average shift has been 0.3% since 2009, and if this adjustment is similar to history, it should arrive near the 3.3% growth rate reported for the second quarter. For this reason, I like the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 2.1% for the corresponding contract which is going for $0.96. Furthermore, coming in below 0% is almost impossible, which means that a technical recession by the end of the third quarter can\u2019t happen since it would require a negative for the second quarter. A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP figures beneath 0. The \u201cNo\u201d on third quarter recession is attractive at $0.97 in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 24, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IBKR ForecastTrader platform places an 86% likelihood of the Bank of Mexico cutting its key rate 25 basis points tomorrow. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":209044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-231122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIBKR Prediction Market Projects a Quarter-Point Cut from Banxico, Trades That Expire 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/business-up-down-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=231122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231122\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/209044"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=231122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=231122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=231122"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=231122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}