{"id":231028,"date":"2025-09-23T12:58:29","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T16:58:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=231028"},"modified":"2025-09-23T14:53:30","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T18:53:30","slug":"forecast-trades-that-expire-tomorrow-us-new-home-sales-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-trades-that-expire-tomorrow-us-new-home-sales-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow: US New Home Sales, Prices: Sep. 23, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Residential transactions have been extremely weak recently, a result of lofty valuations and elevated mortgage rates constraining affordability, while immigration restrictiveness reduces the volume of prospective buyers and renters. Against this backdrop, I highly doubt that new home sales will mark a 42-month high at 745k seasonally adjusted annualized units and for that reason I find the risk-reward profile of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=751047539%7C20250924%7C745000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 745k attractive, it\u2019s going for $0.96. This indicator has a heavy deviation rate and a huge beat or miss is possible and in light of the volatility, I\u2019m staying away from other thresholds. The median estimate for this print is 650k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1783\" height=\"1297\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture-3-1.jpg\" alt=\"Historical number of US home sales\" class=\"wp-image-231043 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture-3-1.jpg 1783w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture-3-1-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture-3-1-1100x800.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture-3-1-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture-3-1-768x559.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture-3-1-1536x1117.jpg 1536w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1783px) 100vw, 1783px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1783px; aspect-ratio: 1783\/1297;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"99\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4-1100x99.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking is new single-family home sales will exceed 745,000 in August\" class=\"wp-image-231031 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4-1100x99.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4-700x63.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4-768x69.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4.jpg 1319w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/99;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"524\" height=\"632\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-4.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding volume of new  single-family home sales in August\" class=\"wp-image-231032 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-4.jpg 524w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-4-300x362.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 524px) 100vw, 524px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 524px; aspect-ratio: 524\/632;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-prices-to-remain-above-400k-though\"><strong>Prices To Remain Above $400K Though<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite weakening trends, I still expect the median sales price, released in the same report, to remain above $400k, with my specific estimate at $410k, in light of heavy land values amidst pricey financing, wage and materials bills. But as I maintain a downward bias in consideration of the sector\u2019s recent softness, I like the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=758853983%7C20250924%7C385000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes\u201d<\/a> at $385k, a level that hasn\u2019t been touched in over four years, since July 2021. The threshold costs $0.92.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-4.jpg\" alt=\"Historical median sales pricing of new homes in the US\" class=\"wp-image-231033 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-4.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-4-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-4-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-4-768x558.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-3-1100x102.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if median new home sales price will exceed $385,000 in August\" class=\"wp-image-231034 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-3-1100x102.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-3-700x65.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-3-300x28.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-3-768x71.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-3.jpg 1325w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 23, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Residential transactions have been extremely weak recently, a result of lofty valuations and elevated mortgage rates constraining affordability, while immigration restrictiveness reduces the volume of prospective buyers and renters. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-231028","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow: US New Home Sales, Prices: Sep. 23, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231028\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow: US New Home Sales, Prices: Sep. 23, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Residential transactions have been extremely weak recently, a result of lofty valuations and elevated mortgage rates constraining affordability, while immigration restrictiveness reduces the volume of prospective buyers and renters.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-trades-that-expire-tomorrow-us-new-home-sales-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow: US New Home Sales, Prices: Sep. 23, 2025","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231028\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Forecast Trades That Expire Tomorrow: US New Home Sales, 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