{"id":230920,"date":"2025-09-22T13:05:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T17:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230920"},"modified":"2025-09-22T16:28:57","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T20:28:57","slug":"government-shutdown-watch-forecast-trades-on-canada-home-prices-us-gas-costs-singapore-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/government-shutdown-watch-forecast-trades-on-canada-home-prices-us-gas-costs-singapore-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Government Shutdown Watch, Forecast Trades on Canada Home Prices, US Gas Costs, Singapore CPI: Sep. 22, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Odds of a partial or full government shutdown by October 1 reached a fresh record of 62%<\/a> earlier this morning, up from the highs of 45% reached on September 9 and September 18. On Friday, the House approved a short-term extension keeping operations running into November, but it failed to gain the 60 votes required in the Senate. Medical funding is the most significant disagreement, with Democrats generally seeking to reverse some of the Medicaid cuts while extending health insurance subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s New Housing Price Index Likely to Remain Between -0.2% and +0.2%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s New Housing Price Index is expected to arrive at 0% in tomorrow morning\u2019s report. Against this backdrop, there are some undervalued contracts below and above 0. I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNo\u201d at 0.2%<\/a> and the \u201cYes\u201d at -0.3% attractive, as the result hasn\u2019t exceeded 0.2% in over three years while a move beneath -0.2% is also rare, occurring just twice since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Meanwhile, coming in under -0.2% is especially challenging following four consecutive months of declines. The levels are costing $0.91 and $0.79 and I additionally like the -0.4% threshold which is going for $0.86. These trades are profitable on a number as low as -0.2% or as high as 0.2%, offering meaningful wiggle room away from the consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Canada<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Singapore\u2019s CPI Carries a Low Deviation Rate<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Singapore\u2019s CPI is expected to come in at 0.6% year over year (y\/y) and historically it has a low deviation rate, meaning that it generally arrives near the consensus. Against this backdrop I think the \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers at 0.3%<\/a> and 0.9% are undervalued at $0.86 and $0.96. Furthermore, of the 14 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum and maximum projections are 0.5% and 0.8%, essentially implying that a huge beat or miss is needed for the results to hit 0.3% or 1% that would result in a loss. The \u201cNos\u201d at 1.1% and 1.3% are additionally attractive and are going for $0.95 and $0.98.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Combo Trade for US Gasoline Prices<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The forecast trade picks here are the \u201cYeses\u201d at $2.75 <\/a>and $2.95 as well as the \u201cNo\u201d at $3.35 because the levels are not even close to the current four-week trend of $3.17 (see chart below). Furthermore, those figures, which range from $0.97 to $0.98 in cost, haven\u2019t been breached in over twelve months. My estimate of tomorrow\u2019s figure is $3.15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 22, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes and No\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Odds of a partial or full government shutdown by October 1 reached a fresh record of 62% earlier this morning, up from the highs of 45% reached on September 9 and September 18.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-230920","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGovernment 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&M University. 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