{"id":230866,"date":"2025-09-19T13:00:55","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T17:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230866"},"modified":"2025-09-22T03:25:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T07:25:34","slug":"alas-poor-triple-witching","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/alas-poor-triple-witching\/","title":{"rendered":"Alas, Poor Triple Witching\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>When I was an options market maker, I tried to avoid being out of the office on the third Friday of the month, especially the four times a year that those represented quarterly, not monthly expirations.&nbsp; Instead, this morning I found myself responding to a question with, \u201ctoday\u2019s expiration is unlikely to be a factor.\u201d&nbsp; What happened?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The easy answer is \u201cdaily expirations.\u201d&nbsp; If that suffices for you, have a great weekend and please read our column again on Monday.&nbsp; The full answer is of course a bit more nuanced.&nbsp; If you prefer that, please read on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key to understanding the now-typical lack of expiration-related fireworks is part of human nature.&nbsp; The more one does something, the easier it gets.&nbsp; If you\u2019ve ever assembled something from a kit, whether it\u2019s Ikea furniture or some other household item, you should be able to relate to that idea.&nbsp; The first time you encounter a chaotic pile of parts, guided only by a pictogram, it might take some time to get one\u2019s bearings.&nbsp; You might also make some mistakes or find some leftover parts.&nbsp; By the time you\u2019ve tackled that third or fourth bookcase, it\u2019s relative child\u2019s play.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously, options trading is a bit more complex than assembling a bookcase.&nbsp; For starters, there\u2019s neither a pictogram nor a handy hex wrench.&nbsp; More crucially, if you assemble your hedges incorrectly or forget a piece of your portfolio, the financial consequences can be quite painful.&nbsp; Yet the more times that a particular trader handles an expiration, the less fear it inspires.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That applies to the industry as a whole.&nbsp; Expirations became increasingly common as expiration cycles became more compressed.&nbsp; As noted above, we only dealt with expirations infrequently \u2013 at most, once a month.&nbsp; Considering that no two market conditions are ever identical, the industry only had a limited number of opportunities to develop a relative comfort level with them.&nbsp; Uncertainty creates volatility, and that uncertainty had a way of expressing itself in some wild moves on expiration Fridays.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, in 2005 weekly options were introduced.&nbsp; Options on the most active stocks, indices, and ETFs began to expire 52 times a year, not just 12.&nbsp; Considering that traders have demonstrated a fondness for more popular names and shorter expirations, much of the action gravitated to those frequently expiring options.&nbsp; By 2016, Wednesdays and then Mondays were added to the expiration cycles for key indices and related ETFs.&nbsp; Then, in 2022, the calendar was filled with Tuesday and Thursday expirations, meaning expirations now occurred more than 250 times a year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, we now have more than 20X the amount of options expiration each year.&nbsp; Do you remember what I said about the more one does something, the easier it gets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, the character of the positioning on options that expire only once a month has changed.&nbsp; The monthly options are listed long before weekly and daily expiring options are available.&nbsp; Thus, if one wants to use options as a long- or medium-term hedge, one will gravitate toward monthly options.&nbsp; In a relentlessly rising market, like the one we\u2019ve been in for months, those positions will be clustered in strikes well below the current level of the market.&nbsp; Those options have very little influence on the market\u2019s movement thanks to their very low or high deltas and lack of gamma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is what we saw this morning.&nbsp; Monthly index options expire into cash on the market\u2019s open.&nbsp; That makes them harder to hedge.&nbsp; When we have high open interest in at-money, AM-expiring options, moves in pre-market futures can exacerbate early volatility.&nbsp; Put simply expiring options can act as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/expiring-open-interest-magnet-or-slingshot\/?query=magnet%20or%20slingshot&amp;query_id=B82eEcZ5RrOgbKa0Y57hyw&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=B82eEcZ5RrOgbKa0Y57hyw\">magnet or a slingshot<\/a>.&nbsp; When the bulk of the positioning is far away from the potential opening level, it doesn\u2019t really matter whether the amount of those expiring options is large.&nbsp; Presumably they\u2019ve been hedged for quite some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, there is always potential for traders to exploit positions that expire on a Friday afternoon.&nbsp; For starters, there are more than 600 classes of weekly options, as opposed to the handful of highly significant classes that expire daily.&nbsp; That is why we\u2019ve written about \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/freaky-friday-another-spy-closing-ramp-or-gamma-squeeze\/?query=freaky%20friday&amp;query_id=zDuLbrSKQ8aSecGFIBsDgg&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=zDuLbrSKQ8aSecGFIBsDgg\">Freaky Fridays<\/a>\u201d, and we can\u2019t rule out big moves \u2013 generally to the upside \u2013 on Friday afternoons.&nbsp; (I\u2019m seeing an attempt at one as I type this now\u2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I suppose I have a bit of nostalgia for the crazy old triple witching expirations.&nbsp; But as the options industry has matured, some of its youthful wildness has abated.&nbsp; And that\u2019s a good thing for the markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When I was an options market maker, I tried to avoid being out of the office on the third Friday of the month, especially the four times a year that those represented quarterly, not monthly expirations.  Instead, this morning I found myself responding to a question with, \u201ctoday\u2019s expiration is unlikely to be a factor.\u201d  What happened?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":185556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-230866","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Alas, Poor Triple Witching\u2026 | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230866\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alas, Poor Triple Witching\u2026 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When I was an options market maker, I tried to avoid being out of the office on the third Friday of the month, especially the four times a year that those represented quarterly, not monthly expirations. 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