{"id":230843,"date":"2025-09-19T12:40:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T16:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230843"},"modified":"2025-09-19T13:10:54","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T17:10:54","slug":"nycs-mamdani-traded-at-a-record-high-of-85-yesterday-government-shutdown-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/nycs-mamdani-traded-at-a-record-high-of-85-yesterday-government-shutdown-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"NYC\u2019s Mamdani Traded at a Record High of 85% Yesterday, Government Shutdown Watch: Sep. 19, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The upcoming New York City election is essentially now a head-to-head between Zohran Mamdani and former state governor Andrew Cuomo, since incumbent mayor Eric Adams is almost off the board; his odds stand at just 2%. Meanwhile, Cuomo has failed to build on the momentum that helped his probability rise to 23% earlier this month; he\u2019s now at 14%. Dwindling chances across opponents drove Mamdani\u2019s likelihood of earning the keys to Gracie Mansion to a record high of 85% yesterday. Residents of the five boroughs are scheduled to hit the booths on November 4 and open positions linked to this race are nearing 3.5 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-9-19-FT.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-230852 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-9-19-FT.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-9-19-FT-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-9-19-FT-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-9-19-FT-768x558.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"96\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-9-19-FT-1100x96.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-230853 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-9-19-FT-1100x96.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-9-19-FT-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-9-19-FT-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-9-19-FT-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-9-19-FT.jpg 1321w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/96;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"517\" height=\"463\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-9-19.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-230854 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-9-19.jpg 517w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-9-19-300x269.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 517px) 100vw, 517px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 517px; aspect-ratio: 517\/463;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-government-shutdown-odds-up-to-39\"><strong>Government Shutdown Odds Up To 39%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Odds that the federal government will enter a partial or full shutdown by October 1 have been increasingly lately, reaching highs of 45% on September 9 and then again on September 18. Right now though, the probability stands at 39%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"100\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-9-19-1100x100.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-230855 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-9-19-1100x100.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-9-19-700x64.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-9-19-300x27.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-9-19-768x70.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-9-19.jpg 1322w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/100;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hong-kong-s-cpi-is-notoriously-volatile\"><strong>Hong Kong\u2019s CPI Is Notoriously Volatile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hong Kong\u2019s Consumer Price Index is notoriously volatile (see chart below) and has featured huge surprise increases in the recent past. Despite my estimate of this Monday\u2019s figure standing at 1.3%, I think there\u2019s a 20% chance the number arrives north of 1.4%. For this reason, I find the risk-reward profile of the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the 1.4% threshold attractive, as it costs just $0.05. A result at or above 1.5% would deliver $1.00 back to the investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-9-19.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-230856 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-9-19.jpg 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-9-19-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-9-19-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture5-9-19-768x558.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture6-2-1100x102.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-230857 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture6-2-1100x102.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture6-2-700x65.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture6-2-300x28.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture6-2-768x71.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture6-2.jpg 1322w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 19, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The upcoming New York City election is essentially now a head-to-head between Zohran Mamdani and former state governor Andrew Cuomo, since incumbent mayor Eric Adams is almost off the board; his odds stand at just 2%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":226876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-230843","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NYC\u2019s Mamdani Traded at a Record High of 85% Yesterday, 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