{"id":230833,"date":"2025-09-30T12:13:42","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T16:13:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230833"},"modified":"2025-09-30T12:22:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T16:22:59","slug":"who-wins-the-ai-arms-race-startups-or-titans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/who-wins-the-ai-arms-race-startups-or-titans\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Wins the AI Arms Race: Startups or Titans?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>AI is reshaping global markets, but where should investors place their bets \u2014 with agile startups or established tech giants? In this episode, Andrew Wilkinson speaks with Max Chen of Etna Capital and Derek Yan of KraneShares about the risks, returns, and portfolio strategies for navigating the AI revolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Who Wins the AI Arms Race: Startups or Titans?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=tpefk-197d503-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-300\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 300<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good morning. This is Andrew Wilkinson. Welcome to today&#8217;s IBKR Podcast. I&#8217;m your host, and I&#8217;m joined today by Max Chen, a partner and portfolio manager at Etna Capital in Hong Kong, and Derek Yan, CFA, a senior investment strategist at KraneShares. Welcome, Max. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-max-chen-nbsp\"><strong>Max Chen<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Doing well, thank you. And Derek, how are you? It\u2019s been a while.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-derek-yan-nbsp\"><strong>Derek Yan<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you. Yeah, I\u2019m great. Thanks for having me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;re going to be talking all about artificial intelligence and some of the companies within the sector. So let&#8217;s start with you, Derek. Can you introduce the idea behind investing in both public and private artificial intelligence companies within a single portfolio?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-derek-yan-nbsp-0\"><strong>Derek Yan<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sure. Yeah. When we look at AI, it\u2019s probably the biggest investment opportunity for the coming decades. But when we look at the marketplace, a lot of investment is really done in a traditional way. There are two problems. First, a lot of investment is not really situation-aware. They\u2019re not at the forefront of investing in foundational models. This industry is so dynamic and evolving, and many investors don\u2019t know what the latest model capability is that\u2019s going to transform business models \u2014 and that creates a problem.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second problem is that the most critical and important companies in AI are actually private. Companies like Anthropic or xAI \u2014 these foundational model companies are so critical to driving the value chain. So at KraneShares, when we are trying to invest in AI, we want to create a solution that addresses those two problems. That\u2019s why we partnered with Etna Capital, a team founded by AI-native researchers, to put both public and private exposure into a single portfolio. That way, we can capture the whole AI value chain.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So Max, when investing in private AI companies, how do you get access, and why does it matter for investors?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-max-chen-nbsp-0\"><strong>Max Chen<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve been private investors for a long time and know the private investment world quite well. The fund actually sits directly on the cap table of those private companies \u2014 meaning the ETF is a direct shareholder of those assets. The structure matters a lot for two reasons.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, it avoids multiple layers of fees. When you\u2019re on the market, you\u2019ll be introduced to many private access opportunities by brokers. But if you look deeper, you\u2019ll find multiple layers embedded in those structures \u2014 not only management fees but also carried interest, which eventually compromises the investment return for clients.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, the structure provides transparency of ownership and allows us to build long-term relationships with the companies. For example, if Anthropic or some other private companies grow even larger, we want to keep supporting them through to IPO. That\u2019s a strategy often used by incumbent ETFs \u2014 doubling down on the winners \u2014 and it\u2019s only possible when you\u2019re directly on the cap table of a private company.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Derek, what\u2019s the mechanism for a portfolio manager when including private exposure? How is liquidity for investors maintained?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-derek-yan-nbsp-1\"><strong>Derek Yan<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>At KraneShares, we manage ETFs. An ETF provides intraday liquidity, or at least daily liquidity, for the NAV. So in a portfolio with both public and private assets, the ETF itself is actually a 40 Act fund. The SEC requires any 40 Act fund to hold less than 15% in private exposure. At KraneShares, our fund targets about 10% in private assets. It\u2019s not the majority of the fund, but it\u2019s a meaningful allocation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, like any mutual fund, we have a fair value committee to determine fair value for those private exposures so we can calculate our daily net asset value. That means investors can trade the ETF around NAV daily, which provides liquidity while still giving access to private exposure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Max, Derek mentioned earlier that AI is probably a huge investment opportunity over the next decade. What\u2019s your outlook for the AI industry and where is it heading right now?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-max-chen-nbsp-1\"><strong>Max Chen<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I would say the future is here, but it\u2019s unevenly distributed. We are still at a preparation stage for this AI wave, and it\u2019s still early. For example, data centers are not ready \u2014 there are massive buildouts underway. The data isn\u2019t ready, and enterprises aren\u2019t ready to prepare their data for AI to digest and transform into actual business operations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the private sector, there\u2019s certainly hype. Some coding agent companies have already shown signs of product-market fit, but many lack true business viability. They\u2019re operating at negative 200\u2013300% gross margins, subsidizing model companies like OpenAI while burning investor money. That\u2019s an area we are cautious about.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But in other sectors, valuations are still attractive. We are still in a preparatory stage. AI companies that not only have the AI capability but also understand specific industries \u2014 and can implement the technology within enterprises \u2014 will be valued much more highly than some of the startups we see right now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Derek, the performance of AI companies has been very strong recently. Should investors be concerned about the AI market?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-derek-yan-nbsp-2\"><strong>Derek Yan<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A lot of people say AI is a bubble, or just a theme cycle. But we see AI as structural growth compared to short-term themes. In the past, there have been several structural growth eras \u2014 the PC era, then the internet, then cloud and SaaS. Just look at the past 10 years: cloud and SaaS transformed the enterprise software industry and created decade-long performance runs. Those companies led the benchmark performance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see AI as the next wave of technological breakthrough, a structural growth story that can last decades. We\u2019re only in about the third year \u2014 think about how people only started to widely recognize ChatGPT about three years ago. It\u2019s still early, and the industry is so dynamic. That\u2019s why investors and the global investment community should be aware of this transformational structural growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So let&#8217;s talk about two things now: the risks and returns of investing in AI companies, and also the integration of both public and private. Max, let&#8217;s start with you. How do you assess the risk and return?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-max-chen-nbsp-2\"><strong>Max Chen<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For some of the private AI companies, especially the model companies, we\u2019re seeing some of the strongest growth we\u2019ve ever encountered. These companies form the infrastructure of the automated society we\u2019re building, and they will certainly deliver investment returns for investors. They\u2019re the beachhead of this revolution.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you look at OpenAI today, it already carries a $300 billion valuation \u2014 larger than some public companies. From a portfolio construction perspective, not including private exposure would underrepresent the AI beta. The competition is still uncertain. It\u2019s too early to say private companies will disrupt public ones, given the advantages public companies have in data, workflow integration, and capital access. But this is a new race, and it\u2019s a fair race \u2014 one driven by execution speed. We\u2019ll keep betting on AI winners, whether public or private.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And Derek, the challenges of managing an investment that integrates both public and private companies into one product \u2014 how do you get around that?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-derek-yan-nbsp-3\"><strong>Derek Yan<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re one of the first firms doing this in the ETF industry, so we get a lot of questions and misunderstandings from investors. Many don\u2019t realize what we\u2019re actually doing. The first challenge is communication and education. No one has previously put private companies like Anthropic or xAI into an ETF. Traditionally, ETFs are seen as simply index-tracking public equities. There are a lot of nuances. First, exposure management: we want to target a dedicated weight in private companies. That means maintaining a strong pipeline to keep adding new names when new money comes in.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, fair valuation. Investors need a fair NAV, so we partner with third-party vendors. Private companies don\u2019t trade daily, but many late-stage tech companies have active secondary markets. With the help of vendors, we get access to secondary transaction prices. Combined with data from the last primary round, this gives our fair value committee the information needed to value private companies accurately, even though they\u2019re not public.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With these nuances, we\u2019ve created a solution that brings private exposure into ETFs, allowing any investor access to these companies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-8\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Max, within the AI sector, are there specific industries at the vanguard of innovation, and how does a portfolio manager aim to capitalize on them?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-max-chen-nbsp-3\"><strong>Max Chen<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right now, a lot of attention is on model companies because, as the saying goes, learning is always faster than feature engineering. Models can overwhelm startups in almost any vertical, given enough data. That means model investment is not finished yet. We already have access to Anthropic and xAI, and we\u2019re considering adding more model companies, including sovereign AI players in different regions, to capture the momentum.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re also at the stage of scaling data \u2014 whether through reinforcement learning environments, synthetic data, or deploying AI models into real-world workflows. We want to focus on service and growth companies across different verticals \u2014 essentially, finding the AI-native Palantir that can systematically embed itself into enterprise workflows. We strongly believe the eventual \u201ckiller app\u201d will be robotics, so we\u2019ll increasingly focus on robotics and foundation model companies down the road.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-9\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Derek, things are moving at quite a pace in artificial intelligence. How does an investor stay on top of emerging technologies and the latest trends?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-derek-yan-nbsp-4\"><strong>Derek Yan<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The most important thing is: investors should use the technology. If you don\u2019t use it, you don\u2019t realize how disruptive it is. Many people already use ChatGPT to write emails or do research, but there are far more tools available.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Coding is the most important AI application right now. Even people who don\u2019t know how to code can start learning through what\u2019s called \u201cwhite coding.\u201d Tools like Anthropic\u2019s Claude and other AI coding technologies make it possible for anyone to build apps. That\u2019s a game changer for investors, who can create their own AI agents to automate workflows in their investment process.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From there, you can build systems that feed you daily updates on what\u2019s happening in AI. And of course, investors can follow KraneShares.com to get the latest information. We\u2019ve already published research articles on how to invest in AI in both the public and private spaces. Partnering with Etna Capital, we\u2019ll continue providing white papers and knowledge sharing through our platform.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-10\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Derek Yan, CFA, Senior Investment Strategist at KraneShares \u2014 thank you so much for joining me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-derek-yan-nbsp-5\"><strong>Derek Yan<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-11\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And Max Chen, Partner and Portfolio Manager at Etna Capital in Hong Kong \u2014 thank you for joining me as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-max-chen-nbsp-4\"><strong>Max Chen<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-12\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And thanks to the audience for taking time out of your day to listen to today\u2019s episode. You can see more at KraneShares.com, and you\u2019ll also find their videos and articles on Traders\u2019 Insight at the IBKR Campus. Don\u2019t forget to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts. Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AI is reshaping global markets, but where should investors place their bets \u2014 with agile startups or established tech giants? In this episode, Andrew Wilkinson speaks with Max Chen of Etna Capital and Derek Yan of KraneShares about the risks, returns, and portfolio strategies for navigating the AI revolution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":230834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[20569,15018,20567,10389,6667,20565,20566,4919,20568],"contributors-categories":[13576,13610],"class_list":{"0":"post-230833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-ai-industry-growth","10":"tag-ai-investing","11":"tag-artificial-intelligence-stocks","12":"tag-etf-investing","13":"tag-portfolio-strategy","14":"tag-private-ai-companies","15":"tag-public-vs-private-markets","16":"tag-tech-stocks","17":"tag-venture-capital-ai","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","19":"contributors-categories-kraneshares"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Who Wins the AI Arms Race: Startups or Titans?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AI is reshaping global markets, but where should investors place their bets \u2014 with agile startups or established tech giants? In this episode, Andrew...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230833\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Who Wins the AI Arms Race: Startups or Titans? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AI is reshaping global markets, but where should investors place their bets \u2014 with agile startups or established tech giants? 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