{"id":230793,"date":"2025-09-19T09:39:44","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T13:39:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230793"},"modified":"2025-09-19T14:16:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T18:16:17","slug":"a-1970s-warning-for-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/a-1970s-warning-for-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"A 1970s Warning for 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Federal Reserve\u2019s latest rate cuts echo the policy missteps of the 1970s, when easy money fueled runaway inflation and market turmoil. CME Group economist Erik Norland joins Andrew Wilkinson to discuss the risks of history repeating itself as investors chase gold, crypto, and tech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"A 1970s Warning for 2025\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=nir89-196d714-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-296\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 296<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Welcome to today&#8217;s episode. This week, the Federal Reserve eased policy by 25 basis points at its September meeting. The outlook\u2014and the consensus\u2014seems to suggest there will be more before the end of the year. To discuss this, I&#8217;d like to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast, Erik Norland. Erik is the Group Economist with CME Group over in Europe. Welcome, Erik. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m doing well. Thank you for having me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You are always welcome back on this program. Now, the employment situation has deteriorated markedly in the past several weeks. To that extent, did the Fed surprise you at the meeting yesterday?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-0\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was widely expected. If you look at our Fed funds futures and what the market priced in, it was basically a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, and even some probability of a 50-basis-point cut. So it didn\u2019t really come as a surprise to me, and certainly not to the market.\u00a0When you look at the employment situation, it\u2019s not really that bad. It is true that non-farm payrolls have barely grown over the last few months, but they\u2019re also not negative. It\u2019s like nobody wants to make any decisions\u2014nobody\u2019s hiring, but nobody\u2019s doing mass layoffs either. So the labor market has just stalled out.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other hand, wage growth is still 3.9% year-on-year. The unemployment rate is at 4.3%. It\u2019s been creeping up very slowly, a few tenths of 1% per year for the last two and a half years. But there was really nothing in the labor data that struck me as so alarming that we immediately had to cut rates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what are the risks, Erik, of easing monetary policy when inflation is still above target?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-1\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Headline inflation is running at 2.9%. Core inflation, more worryingly, is at 3.1%. Both have been rising recently, and this is part of a global trend. Around the world, I can only think of two countries with below-target inflation: China\u2014which is big\u2014and Switzerland\u2014which is small, but wealthy. Everybody else has inflation above target, and in almost all of those countries, like the US, it\u2019s starting to rise.\u00a0Yet all of these central banks, for some reason, are cutting interest rates. The risk is that you wind up with much more inflation down the road. I would point to the early 1970s, when President Nixon appointed his friend and political ally Arthur Burns to run the US Federal Reserve. He kept monetary policy too easy, for too long, and we wound up getting inflation from 2.5% up to around 12% by 1974.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By the time Burns left the Fed in 1978, inflation was running around 6\u20138%. Then Carter replaced him with his ally G. William Miller, who essentially coordinated Fed policy with the Treasury Department. He was described by one of Alan Greenspan\u2019s biographers as the most partisan and least respected person ever to run the Fed. He managed to get inflation up to 14%. That\u2019s the risk.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And I think you and I were talking about this just moments before we started recording. When I was trading money back in the nineties in London, the Bundesbank\u2019s sole mandate was inflation, was it not? What do you think the chances of getting an interest-rate cut out of the Bundesbank would\u2019ve been yesterday?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-2\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oh, they would\u2019ve raised rates. If it was the Bundesbank, they would not have cut\u2014they would have been raising rates. Even in the early days of the ECB, the first two chairmen, Wim Duisenberg and Jean-Claude Trichet\u2014though Dutch and French\u2014basically created the ECB as a Europe-wide Bundesbank. The two of them used to constantly, at every press conference, talk about the importance of keeping inflation expectations anchored.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-3\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem is that inflation expectations in the US are coming unmoored. If you look at the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey, the most recent numbers show Americans expect 4.6% inflation in the next year, and 3.9% on average over the next five to ten years. That\u2019s very different from a few years ago, when they expected more like 2\u20133%.\u00a0As consumers come to expect more inflation, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you think your money is going to lose its value, what do you do? You rush out and spend it quickly, which boosts demand and consumer spending. That demand then outstrips the supply of goods and causes prices to drift higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Erik, you\u2019ve mentioned the labor market and inflation, and we\u2019ve discussed monetary policy. What are your overall thoughts about the US economy from where you are situated?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-4\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US economy has a lot of contradictions, and there is a case for cutting rates. Unemployment has been drifting upwards for quite some time now. It bottomed at 3.4% about two and a half years ago in Q2 2023, and it\u2019s now up to 4.3%. So clearly there is some softening of the labor market.\u00a0At the same time, there are huge numbers of open positions. There are 7.3 million job openings according to the JOLTS survey\u2014about as many as we had at the peak of the expansion in 2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumers also express a lack of confidence in surveys like the University of Michigan or the Conference Board. But here\u2019s the question: who\u2019s not confident? Primarily, it\u2019s people earning less than $100,000 a year. Meanwhile, people earning more than $100,000 are seeing their stock portfolios at records, earning high incomes, and spending heavily. That spending is driving consumer demand higher month after month.\u00a0Default rates show stress\u2014credit card and auto loan defaults are rising. Many American families, especially lower-income households, are under strain. Yet, if you look at credit markets\u2014such as CME\u2019s new futures on high-yield and investment-grade bonds\u2014spreads have never been narrower.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So you have the stock market at record highs, narrow credit spreads, a reasonably strong economy, and inflation creeping up. The overall picture is an economy that might be getting ready to overheat\u2014and we might be pouring gasoline on the fire by cutting interest rates in this environment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Erik, let\u2019s turn to recent political events in France. Were you surprised that investors shrugged their shoulders at the latest collapse inside the French government?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-5\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think it was widely anticipated. As a result of the elections held in June or July last year, the National Assembly essentially has a third on the left, a third in the center, and a third on the right. So pretty much anybody President Macron chooses is going to struggle to run the country, which is why he\u2019s been going through Prime Ministers at such a rapid clip.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, there is some degree of distress in the French debt market. The ECB has been lowering its rate, so French two-year and five-year bonds\u2014the BTANs\u2014have been coming down in yield. But the longer-term ones\u2014the OATs, the ten-year and especially the 30-year bonds\u2014have generally been rising. Maybe not over the last week or two, but certainly over the last few months their yields have been increasing. I think there\u2019s a lot of reticence on the part of investors to lend money to the French government long term. And they\u2019re not alone. The UK\u2019s government and Japan are also in a very similar situation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Erik, we\u2019re heading towards the end of September, which means we\u2019ll be jumping into the fourth quarter. Any thoughts on the rest of the year? What does it hold for investors?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-6\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What we\u2019ve been seeing from investors so far\u2014especially in the third quarter\u2014has been a strong desire to buy assets that central banks cannot create. They\u2019ve been pouring money into gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. They\u2019ve been buying certain cryptocurrencies, especially Solana and XRP, but also Ether and, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They have been avoiding long-term government bonds for the most part, although we did have a little bit of a rally in long-term Treasuries that now seems to be over. And lastly, they\u2019re still plowing money into technology companies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I think with a rate cut, this party might really get going\u2014especially if the Fed keeps easing policy as it signaled it is likely to do. It said it expects to cut at least two more times before year-end. Combine that with possible tariff effects on inflation, and we could see consumer price inflation drifting higher as rates come down. That could really get people interested in buying things that central banks can\u2019t print.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s going to be a little strange from here. If the stock markets go up, it\u2019s going to give us the sensation that everything\u2019s okay. But if the stock markets come down, we\u2019re going to start feeling concerns about the wealth effect\u2014or that the reality might seem worse than it actually is, right?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-7\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. The analogy I would make is what happened in 1971. After Arthur Burns had been in office for about a year, he and Richard Nixon basically severed the link between the dollar and gold. That meant a massive monetary expansion in the US ahead of the 1972 presidential election.\u00a0You might laugh at this, but it happened on Sunday, August 15, 1971. When the markets reopened the next day, Monday, August 16, the Dow had its biggest up day ever\u2014it was up 33 points. The market continued to rally, and by the standards of the time it had a really nice rally through December 1972. So it had about 16 months of rising prices. It was basically a 16-month-long party at the beginning of Arthur Burns\u2019 helm at the Federal Reserve.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then inflation really struck. The stock market fell 47%, inflation went to 12%, the bond market crashed, yields soared, and investors lost a lot of money. We had an extremely deep recession amid higher inflation. Unemployment went from 4.4% to 8.8%\u2014maybe in part because of a wealth effect hitting investors who had lost so much money in both the stock and bond markets simultaneously.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, gold prices continued to soar. Silver soared. It was a pretty interesting middle part of the decade. That\u2019s the kind of thing that could potentially result here. We could see the equity market go much higher. But eventually, if we get hit with higher inflation, the Fed may have to reverse course and raise rates a great deal\u2014like they did in the seventies. That could be very negative for the stock market, especially given its extraordinarily high valuation levels.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-8\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What was it they say\u2014the cure for a high stock market is\u2026?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-8\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, with commodities they say, \u201cThe cure for high prices is high prices.\u201d It incentivizes production. I don\u2019t know what the cure for high stock prices is.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-9\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher prices\u2014and then when they fall, they become more affordable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-9\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I guess, yes. That\u2019s the thing. There are so many investors who, since 2009, have learned that any sell-off is a buying opportunity. And that will be true\u2014until one day, when it\u2019s not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-10\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. And it certainly appeared to be true back in April\u2026&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, that\u2019s right.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-11\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026with the launch of the tariff campaign. Alright, Erik, thank you so much for joining me today. I always appreciate your insight\u2014and particularly today, the history lesson.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-erik-norland-nbsp-10\"><strong>Erik Norland<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alright. Thank you for having me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-12\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And to the audience\u2014thanks for joining me. Don\u2019t forget, if you enjoyed today\u2019s episode, to subscribe to this channel wherever you download your podcasts. Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Federal Reserve\u2019s latest rate cuts echo the policy missteps of the 1970s, when easy money fueled runaway inflation and market turmoil. CME Group economist Erik Norland joins Andrew Wilkinson to discuss the risks of history repeating itself as investors chase gold, crypto, and tech.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":230794,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[20561,20562,1826,35,294,446,255,19480,570,850,1504,4109,2167,18717],"contributors-categories":[13577,13576],"class_list":["post-230793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-1970s-economy","tag-arthur-burns","tag-bond-market","tag-cme-group","tag-crypto","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gold","tag-ibkr-podcast","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-stock-market","tag-us-economy","tag-wealth-effect","contributors-categories-cme-group","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A 1970s Warning for 2025 | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve\u2019s latest rate cuts echo the policy missteps of the 1970s, when easy money fueled runaway inflation and market turmoil. 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