{"id":230750,"date":"2025-09-18T11:49:57","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T15:49:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230750"},"modified":"2025-09-18T14:14:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T18:14:34","slug":"forecast-contract-volumes-eclipsed-1-1-million-yesterday-dominated-by-fed-funds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contract-volumes-eclipsed-1-1-million-yesterday-dominated-by-fed-funds\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Volumes Eclipsed 1.1 Million Yesterday, Dominated By Fed Funds: Sep. 18, 2025 \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>IBKR ForecastTrader transactions exceeded 1.1 million yesterday with the action dominated by contracts addressing the US Fed\u2019s interest rate decision. The day\u2019s volume of 1.1299 million set a year-to-date high and occurred as the fed funds instruments maintained their position as one of our most popular choices. What\u2019s drawing folks to fed funds opportunities in our prediction market is that the selections are clear cut, making them easy to understand as shown in the following examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Will the Fed lower by 25, 50 or more?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Will it raise by 25, 50 or more?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Will it make no change?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, liquidity is buoyant. The simplicity and market depth are strong value-adds, enabling platform participants to make large purchases based on easy-to-understand concepts. Conversely, other alternatives can be complex, difficult to grasp and illiquid. We\u2019re seeing investors, hedgers, speculators, arbitragers, market makers and people from many walks of life take advantage of the wide-ranging possibilities across our marketplace amidst a nearly endless buffet of contracts related to economic, financial, political, government and climate events as well as other developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-platform-participants-expect-another-cut-next-month\"><strong>Platform Participants Expect Another Cut Next Month<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Contract traders place an 83% probability of the Fed cutting by 25 basis points (bps) next month, an 11% likelihood of a pause, and around a 6% chance of a significant reduction of 50-bps or greater. Hikes are off the board for October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"509\" height=\"446\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/FT-Sept-18.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Federal Reserve October rate decision\" class=\"wp-image-230753 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/FT-Sept-18.jpg 509w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/FT-Sept-18-300x263.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 509px) 100vw, 509px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 509px; aspect-ratio: 509\/446;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-fomc-dissenter-contracts-gain-traction\"><strong>New FOMC Dissenter Contracts Gain Traction<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Our recently launched instruments related to dissenting FOMC members at specific meetings are also gaining traction. There are contracts asking if any official will dissent, as well as exactly how many will formally disagree with an interest rate decision. Platform users expect at least one dissenter in October with an elevated degree of confidence as depicted by the \u201cYes\u201d answer costing $0.88. Meanwhile, there is a 6% chance of no dissent, a 53% likelihood of one, 16% odds of two and a 25% probability of three. Having four dissenters is off the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"96\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-Sep-18-1100x96.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if any FOMC member will dissent from Fed decision during \" class=\"wp-image-230754 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-Sep-18-1100x96.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-Sep-18-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-Sep-18-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-Sep-18-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-FT-Sep-18.jpg 1336w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/96;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"95\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-Sep-18-1100x95.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if exactly one FOMC member will dissent from Fed decision during \" class=\"wp-image-230755 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-Sep-18-1100x95.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-Sep-18-700x61.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-Sep-18-300x26.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-Sep-18-768x67.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-FT-Sep-18.jpg 1337w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/95;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"502\" height=\"442\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-Sep-18.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding number of potential FOMC members who may dissent from the Fed 's October decision. \" class=\"wp-image-230756 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-Sep-18.jpg 502w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-FT-Sep-18-300x264.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 502px) 100vw, 502px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 502px; aspect-ratio: 502\/442;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dissenter-arbitrage-alert\"><strong>Dissenter Arbitrage Alert<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A discrepancy across the above choices is providing what I believe is an attractive opportunity that can occur in new, modern markets like ours. Folks can buy the \u201cYes\u201d at $0.88 for the question asking if any members will dissent and the \u201cYes\u201d at $0.06 for exactly 0 members dissenting. The total cost of the trade is $0.94 but it pays out $1.00 whether there\u2019s a formal disagreement in the committee or not, because one side or the other must be correct: the settlement must be either 0 or more than 0. Additionally, participants will earn about 41 days of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.58% and shift in proportion to the values of the positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 18, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IBKR ForecastTrader transactions exceeded 1.1 million yesterday with the action dominated by contracts addressing the US Fed\u2019s interest rate decision. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":184479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-230750","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Contract Volumes Eclipsed 1.1 Million Yesterday, Dominated By Fed Funds: Sep. 18, 2025 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecast Contract Volumes Eclipsed 1.1 Million Yesterday, Dominated By Fed Funds: Sep. 18, 2025 \u00a0","description":"IBKR ForecastTrader transactions exceeded 1.1 million yesterday with the action dominated by contracts addressing the US Fed\u2019s interest rate 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