{"id":230662,"date":"2025-09-17T13:23:47","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T17:23:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230662"},"modified":"2025-09-17T13:31:26","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T17:31:26","slug":"the-dot-plot-thickens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/the-dot-plot-thickens\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dot Plot Thickens"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Andrew Wilkinson sits down with Nasdaq\u2019s Kevin Davitt to unpack the Fed\u2019s latest moves, labor market shifts, and what the updated dot plot really signals for investors. From rate cut debates to options market trends, this episode dives into how the story behind the numbers is shaping markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"The Dot Plot Thickens\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=qbk9s-196a553-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-295\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 295<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this week&#8217;s <em>Market Minute<\/em> podcast. I&#8217;m Andrew Wilkinson. My guest today is Kevin Davitt, Head of Index Options Content at Nasdaq. Welcome back, Kevin.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you so much for having me back. I&#8217;m doing great. I hope you are as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes\u2014for an FOMC conclusion day, I\u2019m doing just fine. At the time of the last meeting in July, Kevin, the FOMC was faced with a three-month average job growth of 150,000 people being added to U.S. non-farm payrolls. But due to revisions and subsequent weakening in the labor market, that three-month average has now dropped to about 29,000 jobs each month. How important is today\u2019s FOMC outcome for the next episode in the stock market?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-0\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You framed it in a very interesting way around the recent weakness in the labor market. As far as today goes, we\u2019re often inclined to make every Fed meeting seem like the most important one ever. I doubt it. My expectation\u2014just my own\u2014is for a relatively muted reaction, because the market has correctly anticipated Fed moves for years now. I doubt the Fed does something that puts the whole market off sides. If that happened, all bets are off. So my long-winded way of saying: I think today we\u2019ll see a quarter-point cut, and markets will get back to business as usual. Bigger picture, your points about the labor market are well taken.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think most people in the market are looking for a 25-basis-point cut. I\u2019m a little bit different\u2014I feel there\u2019s no point in being \u201cjust a little.\u201d You can\u2019t be a little bit pregnant. I\u2019m actually thinking they might go for a 50-basis-point cut. Would that seem like panic, or would it be better for the stock market, do you think?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-1\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I like the way you put that. In this Fed meeting, they\u2019re going to update the dot plot, which they generally do every three months. It\u2019s meaningful because it projects where they see rates a year from now, 18 months from now. If I go back to what the Fed projected in June, the last time they updated the dot plot, their expectation was for a 3.6% Fed funds rate at the end of next year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, Fed fund futures today are pricing expectations around 2.9%. That\u2019s a significant gap, and it speaks to your question\u2014the market is arguably saying the Fed is a little behind. The market is anticipating the Fed will be more dovish than previously expected, with three more rate cuts, including today, priced in for this year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Fed\u2019s updated projections don\u2019t move down to reflect that, could that be viewed as a hawkish stance? Possibly. Because, to your point, the labor market is a big deal, and it seems like their attention has shifted\u2014placing more relative importance on the labor market than inflation. And while it\u2019s a bit of a punt, time will tell how that ultimately balances out.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve got a feeling there\u2019s going to be an \u201cah-ha\u201d moment after the announcement at two o\u2019clock\u2014\u201cAh, yes, now that makes sense.\u201d Kevin, you work in the technology space, which is what Nasdaq does. How sensitive do you think technology firms are to the absolute level of interest rates?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-2\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s an interesting question. As a caveat, I\u2019m not an economist\u2014I focus on derivatives. From my perspective, focusing on the Nasdaq-100, which is significantly influenced by technology, I\u2019d argue that broad-based indices across the U.S. and the world are shaped by the fact that the firms driving the markets are now generally tech firms.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, tech firms were more sensitive to absolute interest rates. But the modern-day Nasdaq-100, the index I help support, is markedly different from a cash-flow perspective than it was 10 or 25 years ago. These are very large-cap companies with gigantic stockpiles of cash on hand, generating revenues that would make most firms blush.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you look at Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet\u2014they\u2019re all in the top 10 U.S. companies by revenue. Amazon is behind only Walmart. Beyond that, these firms generally locked in long-term debt during the zero-bound interest rate environment. Not long ago, Apple\u2019s long-term bonds paid roughly the same as U.S. debt at similar maturities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, cheap money tends to be a tailwind for all businesses, but small-cap companies are typically far more levered and therefore more exposed to higher or lower rates. The Nasdaq-100 is anything but small-cap.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This week we released a podcast with Tyler Wood from the CMT\u2014an excellent technical analyst. I asked him how firm the trends looked from a technical perspective. He felt that everything remained intact, the bull market is still there until it\u2019s not. From a fundamental perspective, do you think the recent slowdown in the labor market suggests the economy is healthy enough to drive the stock market higher, or are we heading toward falling interest rates as a panic move?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-3\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s a really good question. The way you framed it earlier\u2014\u201ctechnicals are good until they\u2019re not\u201d\u2014is sort of how you could frame the labor market: it\u2019s fine until it isn\u2019t.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We kind of had one of those moments\u2014as I said at the beginning, 150,000 down to 29,000. All of a sudden something changed.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-4\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Back to your question, and the fundamental framing: you can make a compelling argument that the labor market is the key going forward, and it seems the Fed agrees. We\u2019ve seen, and I don\u2019t think I\u2019m being hyperbolic here, fairly anemic job creation for much of this year, especially given the large downward revisions to the data.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From an investment perspective, the markets keep going up. There\u2019s a wealth effect there that the Fed has historically relied on and pointed to. But for most people, there\u2019s no substitute for income\u2014we rely on our paychecks to drive what we do day after day, week after week, and to drive the economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my opinion, the economy remains on stable ground by most measures now. But if we see consistent negative job growth, my concern would rise pretty quickly.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Got it. Let\u2019s finish with a question about options volume. Whenever you do a webinar with me, Kevin, you put up an excellent chart about options volume growth and how the industry is doing. It\u2019s been this steady stair climb\u2014options volumes have accelerated over the years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier this week, President Trump proposed moving from quarterly to semi-annual earnings reports. Do you think that will have any significant impact on the options market? After all, options are primarily used as a hedge, and you can generally hedge over quarterly earnings. What impact do you think this could have?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-5\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good question. That\u2019s actually a topic we bounced around during a team call earlier this week. It\u2019s certainly possible that volumes could wane, because there tends to be a great deal of positioning around what we often call \u201cknown unknowns,\u201d and earnings fall into that category.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personally, speaking for myself, I like the idea of incentivizing longer-term growth for firms. I\u2019m a bit of a fan of history, and that was one of the ways leading Asian firms grew during the 1970s and \u201980s\u2014they had longer-term plans. You could argue that managing toward a three-month reporting cycle disincentivizes that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At a top level, I don\u2019t think regulators are going to worry much about what that does to options volumes on any given day. The other thing I\u2019d point out\u2014because I focus on index options\u2014is that there\u2019s no earnings report for the Nasdaq-100 or the Russell. Instead, we have regular updates like jobs reports and CPI\u2014other \u201cknown unknowns.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, given the shift in the market and the broad buy-in for options across the board, I doubt it would have a very material impact. But, of course, I could be wrong.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks for joining me, Kevin. Are you going to go have an FOMC moment?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-6\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s what I do every six weeks, Andrew. We don\u2019t have to tell everyone about that\u2014but yes, I am.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Alright. Thanks for joining me, and we\u2019ll speak to you soon, Kevin.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-7\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sounds great.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-8\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And to the audience, thank you for joining me. Remember to subscribe to this channel wherever you download your podcasts. Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Andrew Wilkinson sits down with Nasdaq\u2019s Kevin Davitt to unpack the Fed\u2019s latest moves, labor market shifts, and what the updated dot plot really signals for investors. 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