{"id":230645,"date":"2025-09-17T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230645"},"modified":"2025-09-18T03:16:38","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T07:16:38","slug":"whats-hot-opec-to-drive-oil-surpluses-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/whats-hot-opec-to-drive-oil-surpluses-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s Hot: OPEC+ to drive oil surpluses higher"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.eu\/en-gb\/blog\/2025-09-17\/opec-to-drive-oil-surpluses-higher#production-shift\"><strong>OPEC+ production shift<\/strong>: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies (OPEC+) is rapidly unwinding supply cuts, adding barrels back faster than planned to regain market share, though actual output lags targets.<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.eu\/en-gb\/blog\/2025-09-17\/forecasts#diverging\"><strong>Diverging forecasts<\/strong>: The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a record surplus, OPEC predicts a deficit, while the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a moderate surplus\u2014our view aligns more closely with EIA.<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.eu\/en-gb\/blog\/2025-09-17\/opec-to-drive-oil-surpluses-higher#market-impact\"><strong>Market impact<\/strong>: Despite surplus risks, prices rose on fears of sanctions reducing Russian supply, but we see near-term downside<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allied producers) announced another increase in oil production, adding to the existing surplus. Yet markets shrugged off the news and oil prices continued to climb. Investors appear more concerned about tightening sanctions on Russia and Iran than about OPEC+\u2019s policy moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-opec-restraint-in-context\"><strong>OPEC+ restraint in context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>OPEC+ has operated with multiple layers of production restraint in recent years (see summary below). The third layer of restraint\u20142.2 mb\/d\u2014has now been removed. Originally planned to unwind gradually over 18 months, it was instead rolled back swiftly in just six months between April and September 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Group-Wide Cut (2.0 million barrels per day or mb\/d):<\/strong>Announced in October 2022, this applies to all 22 OPEC+ members and is scheduled to remain in place through the end of 2026.<br><strong>Voluntary Cut (1.65 mb\/d):<\/strong>Introduced in April 2023 by a subset of eight countries\u2014Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, Algeria, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)\u2014also running through the end of 2026.<br><strong>Additional Voluntary Cut (2.2 mb\/d):<\/strong>Initiated in November 2023, this additional cut was borne again by the same \u201cGroup of Eight.\u201d It was initially planned to be gradually unwound at a pace of approximately 138 thousand barrels per day (kb\/d) between April 2025 and September 2026 but has been expedited and unwound by September 2025.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-new-announcement\"><strong>The new announcement<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the Group of Eight announced plans to add another 137 kb\/d to the market in October 2025, beginning the unwind of the second restraint layer (1.65 mb\/d). If maintained monthly, the full tranche would be removed within 12 months, leaving only the group-wide 2.0 mb\/d cut in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The decision was swift\u2014reached in just 11 minutes during a virtual meeting\u2014signalling OPEC+\u2019s clear intent to regain market share lost during years of restraint, which enabled the US to surge ahead as the world\u2019s largest oil producer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-headline-versus-reality\"><strong>Headline versus reality<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The actual supply boost may fall short of targets. Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan already produce ~1.1 mb\/d above their quotas, while others, including Russia, face capacity limits. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), OPEC+ will have increased crude output by just 1.5 mb\/d since 1Q25\u2014well below the announced 2.5 mb\/d target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"diverging-forecasts\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-surplus-or-deficit\"><strong>Surplus or deficit?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The outlook diverges:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>IEA<\/strong>: Expects a 3.3 mb\/d surplus on average over the next year\u2014360 kb\/d more than its previous forecast\u2014at levels not seen since the COVID crisis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>OPEC<\/strong>: Projects a supply deficit, citing robust demand growth and slowing non-OPEC+ supply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-our-view\"><strong>Our view<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We see flaws in both forecasts. The IEA\u2019s supply growth assumptions are likely too aggressive, given OPEC+\u2019s delivery shortfalls. OPEC\u2019s demand outlook is equally unrealistic, with seasonal summer demand winding down and China well-stocked with inventory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We expect a surplus, though smaller than the IEA\u2019s forecast. A deficit seems unlikely absent a supply shock. The US Energy Information Administration\u2019s (EIA\u2019s) forecast of a 2.0 mb\/d surplus from Q3 2025 through Q1 2026 is more reasonable. US output is expected to peak at a record 13.4 mb\/d this year, before moderating slightly to 13.3 mb\/d in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-world-production-and-consumption-of-oil-and-liquid-fuels\"><strong>World production and consumption of oil and liquid fuels<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"566\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1-1100x566.png\" alt=\"World production and consumption of oil and liquid fuels\" class=\"wp-image-230648 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1-1100x566.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1-700x360.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1-1536x790.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1-2048x1054.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/566;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-world-balance-of-oil-and-liquid-fuels\"><strong>World balance of oil and liquid fuels<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"537\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-2-1100x537.png\" alt=\"World balance of oil and liquid fuels\" class=\"wp-image-230647 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-2-1100x537.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-2-700x342.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-2-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-2-768x375.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-2-1536x749.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-2.png 2029w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/537;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2025.&nbsp;<strong>Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"market-impact\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-have-prices-risen-since-the-last-opec-announcement\"><strong>Why have prices risen since the last OPEC+ announcement?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite rising surplus forecasts, prices have edged higher. Markets appear focused on the risk of secondary sanctions targeting Russian oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the Russia-Ukraine war began, India and China sharply increased Russian imports, taking advantage of discounts after G7 nations imposed a price cap ($60\/barrel in 2022). Neither India nor China signed up to the cap, enabling Russia to redirect flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, the US is pressing G7 allies to impose tariffs\u2014potentially as high as 100%\u2014on Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil. President Trump, frustrated by a stalled Ukraine war and political pressure, is seeking tougher measures after earlier signalling a softer stance toward Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If enforced, such tariffs could curb Russian exports, tightening global supply. However, in today\u2019s inflation-sensitive environment, the appetite for strict sanctions is uncertain. Notably, Trump himself had previously urged OPEC+ to boost output to tame inflationary pressures. European G7 members, meanwhile, remain sceptical about tariffs as a policy tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-downside-price-pressure-ahead\"><strong>Downside price pressure ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While markets focus on sanctions risk, the near-term effect of OPEC+\u2019s production increases is underappreciated. Rising supply points to downside pressure on oil prices in the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-investment-implications\"><strong>Investment implications<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We believe tactical shorts on oil could benefit investors from a potential correction. WisdomTree offers a range of short and leveraged oil products on Brent and WTI, with leverage up to 3x for capital efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-considerations\"><strong>Key Considerations:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>These products are path dependent, resetting daily.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A -3x product will deliver three times the daily inverse move (less fees), but performance over longer periods depends on daily price paths.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Short and leveraged products are designed for short-term tactical use and should be entered with conviction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.eu\/en-gb\/blog\/2025-09-17\/opec-to-drive-oil-surpluses-higher\">What\u2019s Hot: OPEC+ to drive oil surpluses higher<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OPEC+ is unwinding supply cuts faster than planned, aiming to reclaim market share, though output lags targets. Forecasts diverge: IEA sees a large surplus, OPEC a deficit, and EIA a moderate surplus. Despite price gains on sanction fears, we expect near-term downside pressure and see opportunities in tactical oil shorts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":530,"featured_media":230648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,5,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13714],"class_list":{"0":"post-230645","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-wisdomtree-europe"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What\u2019s Hot: OPEC+ to drive oil surpluses higher<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"OPEC+ is unwinding supply cuts faster than planned, aiming to reclaim market share, though output lags targets. 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Despite price gains on sanction fears, we expect near-term downside pressure and see opportunities in tactical oil shorts.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/whats-hot-opec-to-drive-oil-surpluses-higher\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-17T15:15:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-18T07:16:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/17-d-09-wh-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2068\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1064\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nitesh Shah\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta 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