{"id":230577,"date":"2025-09-16T12:55:54","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T16:55:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230577"},"modified":"2025-09-16T15:31:45","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T19:31:45","slug":"expectations-for-tomorrows-fed-and-boc-as-well-as-trades-for-starts-permits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/expectations-for-tomorrows-fed-and-boc-as-well-as-trades-for-starts-permits\/","title":{"rendered":"Expectations For Tomorrow\u2019s Fed and BoC, As Well As Trades for Starts, Permits: Sep. 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s Fed decision is widely expected to feature a 25 basis point cut although participants are projecting that there will be disagreements in the committee. There\u2019s a 95% likelihood of a 25 amidst slim single-digit chances calling for a pause or a bigger reduction amounting to 50. Meanwhile, there\u2019s an <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=804725704%7C20250917%7C0&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">82%<\/a> chance of at least one dissenter alongside probabilities ranging from 17% to 33% of exactly one, two or three officials formally disagreeing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"706\" height=\"67\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/picture-1-FT-9-16-1.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the Fed will lower the the rate 25 bps on September 17\" class=\"wp-image-230579 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 706px; aspect-ratio: 706\/67;width:824px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/picture-1-FT-9-16-1.jpg 706w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/picture-1-FT-9-16-1-700x66.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/picture-1-FT-9-16-1-300x28.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"702\" height=\"58\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-9-16-1.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if any FOMC member will dissent at the meeting on September 17\" class=\"wp-image-230580 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-9-16-1.jpg 702w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-9-16-1-700x58.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-9-16-1-300x25.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 702px; aspect-ratio: 702\/58;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"526\" height=\"457\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-ft-9-16-1.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking regarding Fed rate decision\" class=\"wp-image-230581 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-ft-9-16-1.jpg 526w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-ft-9-16-1-300x261.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 526px) 100vw, 526px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 526px; aspect-ratio: 526\/457;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"517\" height=\"459\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-2.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding number of dissenting FOMC\" class=\"wp-image-230582 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-2.jpg 517w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4-2-300x266.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 517px) 100vw, 517px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 517px; aspect-ratio: 517\/459;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-participants-expect-2-or-3-cuts-by-year-end\"><strong>Participants Expect 2 or 3 Cuts By Year-End<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Participants are expecting a Fed benchmark of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20251210%7C3.625\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3.625%<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20251210%7C3.875\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3.875<\/a>% by year-end, which signals two to three 25 basis point cuts by Christmas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"513\" height=\"614\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/target-rate.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts  regarding Fed rate decision\" class=\"wp-image-230584 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/target-rate.jpg 513w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/target-rate-300x359.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 513px; aspect-ratio: 513\/614;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bank-of-canada-also-expected-to-cut\"><strong>Bank of Canada Also Expected to Cut<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Participants also envision a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=798087648%7C20250917%7C4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quarter-point reduction<\/a> from the BoC tomorrow morning, although there\u2019s no chance of a 50 according to our prediction market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"908\" height=\"76\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/canada-1.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding BoC rate decision\" class=\"wp-image-230585 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/canada-1.jpg 908w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/canada-1-700x59.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/canada-1-300x25.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/canada-1-768x64.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 908px) 100vw, 908px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 908px; aspect-ratio: 908\/76;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-trades-i-find-attractive-for-us-permits-starts\"><strong>Trades I Find Attractive for US Permits, Starts<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s new residential construction report from the Census Bureau features both housing starts and building permits, which have been volatile and on a weakening trend in recent months as immigration restrictiveness, lofty valuations and elevated rates have weighed heavily on activity even as the long end has been plunging lately. Against this backdrop, I like the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663557%7C20250917%7C1100000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes\u201d<\/a> answers at the 1.1 and 1.2 million thresholds for starts, which are going for $0.97 each, as well as the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663557%7C20250917%7C1500000\">\u201cNos\u201d<\/a> at 1.5 million and 1.6 million, which are costing $0.89 and $0.98, respectively. The median estimate is at 1.37 million with the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 49 forecasters ranging from a minimum of 1.25 million to a maximum of 1.48 million. Furthermore, the indicator has stayed between 1.2 million and 1.5 million in all of 2025. For permits, the monthly Reuters poll of 38 forecasters stands at a median of 1.37 million with a minimum of 1.32 million and a maximum of 1.44 million, but I\u2019m suspicious of a strong rebound and am avoiding the \u201cYes\u201d answers here and instead just going with the \u201cNo\u201d at 1.5 million for $0.98. Similarly, it\u2019s a level that hasn\u2019t been breached all year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"532\" height=\"500\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/housing.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract  regarding US housing starts\" class=\"wp-image-230586 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/housing.jpg 532w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/housing-300x282.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 532px) 100vw, 532px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 532px; aspect-ratio: 532\/500;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"462\" height=\"499\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/permits.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding housing permits\n\" class=\"wp-image-230587 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/permits.jpg 462w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/permits-300x324.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 462px) 100vw, 462px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 462px; aspect-ratio: 462\/499;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 16, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes and No\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s Fed decision is widely expected to feature a 25 basis point cut although participants are projecting that there will be disagreements in the committee. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-230577","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expectations For Tomorrow\u2019s Fed and BoC, As Well As 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