{"id":230566,"date":"2025-09-16T13:01:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T17:01:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230566"},"modified":"2025-09-16T13:18:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T17:18:00","slug":"the-chart-whisperer-markets-in-motion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/the-chart-whisperer-markets-in-motion\/","title":{"rendered":"The Chart Whisperer: Markets in Motion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Join Andrew Wilkinson and Tyler Wood of the CMT Association as they decode today\u2019s market momentum and uncover what the charts are really saying. From mega-cap leadership and small-cap struggles to commodities and Fed cuts, this episode reveals how technical signals shape market moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Information about the <a href=\"https:\/\/cmtassociation.org\/conference\/global-investment-summit\/\">2025 CMT Global Investment Summit<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABOUT THE EVENT<br>Join an elite gathering of fund managers, strategists, and top<br>investors as we decode cross-asset trends, trading<br>innovations, and regime shifts shaping the future of public<br>markets.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2025 Dubai Summit is the premier investment<br>management event for financial professionals committed to<br>building a repeatable, data-driven investment process. Gain<br>the tools to mitigate risk, navigate uncertainty, and master<br>global markets with technical analysis.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Set in the iconic Museum of the Future, this intimate summit will host 200 industry<br>leaders from hedge funds, investment banks, proprietary<br>trading desks, and family offices. Expect cutting-edge<br>insights on portfolio construction, risk management, money<br>flow, macro forces, and the evolution of technical analysis\u2014<br>all tailored for today\u2019s volatile investment landscape.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This landmark event builds on the momentum of CMT Association\u2019s<br>strategic expansion into the GCC region, reinforcing our<br>mission to elevate technical analysis in global finance. Don\u2019t<br>miss this opportunity to gain actionable intelligence, forge<br>powerful connections, and stay ahead in 2025\u2019s dynamic<br>markets. Join us in Dubai. Shape the future of investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"The Chart Whisperer: Markets in Motion\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=kix3p-1968593-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-294\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 294<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this week&#8217;s podcast. My name&#8217;s Andrew Wilkinson with Interactive Brokers, and I am delighted to have back in the saddle here after, I don\u2019t know, almost a year\u2019s absence, Tyler Wood. Welcome, Tyler. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hey Andrew. Great to see you. I&#8217;m doing very well. Thanks for having me back.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good, good. It&#8217;s been a long and hazardous year for you, I know. And congratulations on the newborn, which happened very recently.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-0\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&nbsp;am back. I highly recommend a little general anesthesia\u2014it\u2019s the kind of vacation that really brings mental clarity. So an outpatient surgery, it\u2019s great. Of course, I do have a newborn, and so net-net, I\u2019m probably just as foggy as I always am. But it\u2019s nice to get back and chat with you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re gonna try and make things a little bit clearer now. And just for the benefit of the guests: Tyler Wood is with the Chartered Market Technicians Association, or the CMT, which means he knows how to read a chart very well. That\u2019s what we\u2019re going to concentrate on today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re recording this Wednesday, the 10th of September, and the market is just putting in another all-time high. So that\u2019s a great backdrop. You know, when this recording goes out, you never know.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-1\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s alright.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Things could be at a new 52-week low, but we\u2019ll deal with that. So Tyler, you disappeared off the radar just after the end of the first quarter. All the fun hit with Liberation Day and the Rose Garden and so on, and then the market just took a huge swoon. As you get your feet back under the table, give us a sense of how you\u2019re seeing the overall health of the stock market. The market\u2014particularly on the tech side but also the core indices\u2014is making new all-time highs. What does it look like to you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-2\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think that\u2019s one of the beauties of trend-following investing, or momentum investing, or even just using charts and data visualization\u2014you can keep things simple. I talk to a lot of smarter folks than I, who have this four-dimensional chess, macro strategy, scenario planning about how tariffs are going to impact things, geopolitical conflicts, and all of that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My sleepy Midwestern roots keep things pretty simple: take a look at all the major indices and just check\u2014are we still trending higher? Is there a series of higher highs and higher lows? Are we above moving averages? In all technical analysis work, you tend to take that top-down approach. So, start with: where are we? And my answer is yes. Those trends are largely still intact. We\u2019re holding moving averages. All of the volume trend indicators, things like Chaikin money flow, are still healthy, constructive evidence that it\u2019s not all doomsday\u2014at least not yet, right? So knowing where you are is a very helpful starting point to decide how you\u2019re gonna react to where you might be going.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean markets are going to trend in a straight line upward and to the right. Certainly, a lot of the analysts I talk to are looking out for some seasonality. The bottom line is that the uptrend is intact. We keep testing\u2014or, as we are today, making\u2014new all-time highs. And we\u2019ve had some breadth appreciation, some improving breadth statistics, and some broadening of the market. That is really helpful. I read from Bloomberg that over 64% of the Russell 3000 are back above their 200-day moving averages, so that\u2019s a healthier backdrop than the narrow leadership we were worried about earlier in the year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So I want to jump into the big-picture conversation here with yields\u2014bond yields\u2014for a particular reason. Very recently, economic weakness has brought to the fore the idea that the FOMC will resume monetary easing next week, in the middle of September. And it\u2019s the job of the stock market to discount the future, including lower interest rates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How much of where we are today is predicated on the idea that rates will come down? How does the technical situation look?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-3\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a radical view to think that the next move is lower. But it also depends on your time horizon. Not knowing every single listener here\u2014if you\u2019re thinking about what\u2019s going to happen over the next five years, ten years, or if you\u2019re a sovereign wealth fund looking out 25 years\u2014I think we\u2019re in a rising interest rate environment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We had 40 years of downward trends on the US 10-year, and those broke after a massive V-bottom during the pandemic. But yes, weakening data off the jobs report and a couple of folks losing their jobs\u2014we will see that rate cut. And I\u2019d say a lot of it is already priced in. Futures in the FX market are already discounting a really high probability of that September cut. Market-implied odds are around 90% for a quarter point, 25 basis points.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But what the equity tape is reacting to is what the path of cuts might be. And that matters more than whether this first cut happens.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So one burning question on everybody\u2019s lips is the health of the tech sector today. Narrow leadership for the first, I don\u2019t know, six months of this year\u20142025\u2014the big players still serving to lift the overall market. Or are investors gravitating to specific industries within tech now?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-4\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When you look at indices on a cap-weighted basis, we definitely need mega-cap names to maintain their anchoring of this trend. We need those to keep working if the indices are not going to falter.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019d point out that the technology sector\u2014or growth equities\u2014has a lot more diversification than what most people think. Most people look at Nvidia or just semiconductors as an industry group. And I think it\u2019s worth noting there\u2019s been a major change of character for individual names like Nvidia. We\u2019ve had weaker and weaker momentum readings since the June highs. All of the moving averages that were holding in each pullback are now broken.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my own trend model, it\u2019s in a \u201cno-go\u201d configuration right now. It\u2019s having a little bit of a retest, a counter-trend rally, on a daily basis. So there are certainly some stretched trends that are now looking a bit toppy. So when we think about seasonality and headwinds that might be coming in September and October, I think there could be a lot of rotation happening. Money coming out of some of those big names that served investors so well during this last rally, and maybe looking for other opportunities\u2014perhaps things at slightly lower valuations or more attractive from a technical setup as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That actually sounds quite positive when you\u2019re not relying on that single-name growth or value, which is currently looking healthier.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-5\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth still leads. And in all of our relative strength work, you\u2019d see growth across all categories outperforming value. But that gap has narrowed on those falling yields and broader participation. Things like healthcare and materials\u2019 outperformance in August hint at a little more balanced market rather than a wholesale regime change.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not that tech is done and we\u2019re going straight back into materials, building supplies, and infrastructure. So I wouldn\u2019t call it a regime shift, but perhaps a more balanced market. What we\u2019ll be watching is if real yields keep trending lower\u2014that supports growth and growth equities that have a duration premium. If it\u2019s steepening driven by improving activity, then you\u2019ll see value and cyclical sectors start to come back into leadership positions and outperform on a relative strength basis.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So large cap or small cap? I can\u2019t quite get my head around why small caps are having a hard time keeping up.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah. They did have a strong August, but they\u2019re struggling to keep that follow-through as we get into September. So they\u2019re lagging again. I know the technical analysis community has been talking for 18 months, two years, about when the heyday for small caps will arrive. When are we going to see this massive catch-up for all of those Russell 2000, Russell 3000 names?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think debt load and sensitivity to growth have been keeping a lid on that momentum. The valuations are really compelling. So to each investor, you\u2019ve got to follow your process and know your own stripes. But right now, we\u2019re still seeing large caps continue to lead. I think the trigger for a durable small-cap run is going to be clearer evidence and some re-acceleration with easier financial conditions. We need lower short rates, looser credit. I think it really comes down to liquidity.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Probably a flattening of the yield curve.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-6\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-8\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yep. Any red flags that you\u2019re seeing that might prompt you to just raise a word of caution across the stock market?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-7\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, in the broad context of how the market is doing, I think breadth measures are critically important. A couple of good friends of mine and fellow CMTs just wrote a white paper recently showing how breadth can be a really good bellwether\u2014the canary in the coal mine\u2014ahead of drops in the indices.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You want to have a deep bench. Bench strength in a market rally is important because you\u2019ve got to be able to pass the ball and see that healthy rotation. Ralph Acampora always said, rotation is the lifeblood of bull markets. When you have very narrow leadership, then you\u2019re on much weaker footing in those index-level rallies, because you\u2019re just talking about a few mega-cap names.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other thing\u2014and I hate to be outside my technical expertise\u2014but I think earnings leadership fatigue could be a problem. The whole AI complex, the expectation of what those firms are going to be able to achieve, is just meteoric. Broadcom\u2019s beat was certainly helpful. But a reversal in those earnings releases could mean that some of that outsized sentiment for the AI complex gets a bit of a reversal.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-9\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What does the commodity world look like to you at the minute? Lumber\u2019s hit its lowest point year to date, hasn\u2019t it?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-8\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, down about 20% since early August. Lumber is certainly signaling softer housing demand and tighter construction margins. It\u2019s a good barometer for the real economy, and that is certainly flashing caution.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I love the commodities complex. Even though the data is hard to pin down sometimes, when you see a crisis happening in equities, there\u2019s usually some alpha to be captured in the commodity space. Gold\u2014we\u2019re at 3,550 to 3,600 an ounce. Every technician in the world looked at the big broadening cup-and-handle formation, \u00e0 la William O\u2019Neill methodologies. And once we broke above that 2,000 level after testing it 12 times, it was off to the races.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That really sticks to some of our principles: when there is no resistance level above a major breakout\u2014when you\u2019re at all-time highs\u2014there aren\u2019t other sellers sitting ready to sell. And certainly, we know central banks have been pretty voracious buyers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-10\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>On a sector level, back in the stock market, are there some that are really appealing and some that you think are likely to lag from here, Tyler?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-9\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I still like semiconductors. I\u2019m just a helpless trend follower\u2014until it\u2019s not trending higher, I\u2019ve got to stick with what\u2019s working. And certainly beyond some higher volatility and seasonality in September and October, I think we could see really strong rallies through the end of the year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They have pretty resilient uptrends when you get into the individual names. From a contrarian point of view, I don\u2019t know how often you dig into the industry groups in the healthcare sector, but biotech and pharma have both made really nice basing patterns. They had some breakouts in August, and their very deep underperformance certainly makes them a strong value play.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Value investments turn into something trend followers really love once they break out and start working. So those are some things I\u2019m keeping an eye on. Certainly materials and industrials\u2014if the tape is broadening in this way and there\u2019s potential for re-acceleration of those August leaders, if the new regime continues, then I\u2019m paying attention to those as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-11\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Very good. So what\u2019s next for the CMT? Are you going globetrotting anytime soon?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-10\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah. Despite my spine surgeon\u2019s best pleas to keep me off long-haul flights, the CMT Association is hosting our 2025 Global Investment Conference in Dubai. That\u2019ll be September 30th through October 2nd. It\u2019s getting chilly upstate New York, which means I need it to be 105 degrees in the shade, and I\u2019m headed to Dubai to get that done.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But yeah, it\u2019s going to be a great global gathering. We\u2019ve got folks coming over from Singapore and Hong Kong and all of Latin America. And I think the third runway at Heathrow is now being built in Abu Dhabi\u2014like half of Britain lives in the UAE now. So it\u2019s a very dynamic place, perhaps like New York City was in the 1920s. It\u2019s just a really dynamic environment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-12\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Brilliant. Tyler, thank you for joining me and best of luck with the travel plans and with the conference at the end of the month.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-11\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks so much, Andrew. Great to see you, and I\u2019ll talk soon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-13\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And don\u2019t forget, to the audience: if you liked the episode, remember to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts. Thanks, Tyler.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tyler-wood-nbsp-12\"><strong>Tyler Wood<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, Andrew.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Bye everybody.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Join Andrew Wilkinson and Tyler Wood of the CMT Association as they decode today\u2019s market momentum and uncover what the charts are really saying. From mega-cap leadership and small-cap struggles to commodities and Fed cuts, this episode reveals how technical signals shape market moves.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":230569,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[16187,20556,20555,20558,17236,4294,11263,1584,18446,20559,901,20557,18440,1291,20554,861],"contributors-categories":[13752,13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-230566","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-andrew-wilkinson","10":"tag-breadth-indicators","11":"tag-cmt-association","12":"tag-commodities-investing","13":"tag-fed-rate-cuts","14":"tag-gold-prices","15":"tag-investment-strategies","16":"tag-market-trends","17":"tag-nvidia-stock","18":"tag-rotation-in-markets","19":"tag-semiconductors","20":"tag-small-caps-vs-large-caps","21":"tag-stock-market-podcast","22":"tag-technical-analysis","23":"tag-tyler-wood","24":"tag-yield-curve","25":"contributors-categories-cmt-association","26":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Chart Whisperer: Markets in Motion | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Join Andrew Wilkinson and Tyler Wood of the CMT Association as they decode today\u2019s market momentum and uncover what the charts are really saying. 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