{"id":230503,"date":"2025-09-15T12:48:54","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T16:48:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230503"},"modified":"2025-09-15T15:56:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T19:56:23","slug":"forecast-expectations-for-us-retail-sales-production-canada-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-expectations-for-us-retail-sales-production-canada-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Expectations for US Retail Sales, Production, Canada CPI: Sep. 15, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s retail sales report is expected to arrive at 0.3% month over month (m\/m) and our prediction market is marginally tilted toward a lighter number. This modest discrepancy in opinions can be seen by participants opining that the 0.25% threshold won\u2019t be breached to the upside with a 51% degree of confidence. My projection is quite buoyant at 0.6%, however, following last Friday\u2019s strong growth of 0.5% reported from the <a href=\"https:\/\/nrf.com\/media-center\/press-releases\/august-cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-data-shows-increased-sales-even-as-inflation-impacts-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">National Retail Federation together with CNBC<\/a>, which correlates somewhat with the government\u2019s print due tomorrow. In light of the aforementioned, I don\u2019t think a huge miss is in the cards but a significant beat may be. Against this backdrop, I like the risk-reward profiles of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=2&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425591%7C20250916%7C-0.75\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> contracts ranging for -1.75% and -0.25% which span from $0.97, $0.96, $0.88 and $0.67. The \u201cNos\u201d at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=2&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425591%7C20250916%7C-1.25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1.25%<\/a> and 1.75% also look safe to me at $0.83 and $0.95, as a result of that magnitude is unlikely, occurring just once since February 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"285\" height=\"320\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-FT-Sep-15.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR FrecastTrader Contract for retail sales\" class=\"wp-image-230504 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 285px; aspect-ratio: 285\/320;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecast-contracts-project-industrial-production-beat\"><strong>Forecast Contracts Project Industrial Production Beat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tomorrow\u2019s median expectation for industrial production is at 0.8% year over year (y\/y), but our prediction market is a little higher with 49% of participants pointing to a number north of 1%. I\u2019m in-line with the consensus here and don\u2019t think a huge beat or miss is in the cards for this print, which historical carries a light deviation rate from the consensus. Against this backdrop I like the risk-reward profiles or the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=2&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=751047561%7C20250916%7C-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at -1%, -0.5% and 0% as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at 2%, 2.5% and 3%. The contracts range from $0.85 to $0.98 in cost and have a wide path to profitability in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"287\" height=\"340\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-sept-15.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR FrecastTrader Contract for US Industrial production. \" class=\"wp-image-230505 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 287px; aspect-ratio: 287\/340;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecast-contracts-project-canada-cpi-miss\"><strong>Forecast Contracts Project Canada CPI Miss<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Our prediction market is expecting a miss in tomorrow\u2019s Canada CPI which carries a median expectation of 2% y\/y. But the \u201cNo\u201d at 1.8% is costing just $0.64, implying that 64% of our participants don\u2019t expect the number to exceed that level. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll of 17 forecasters ranges from 1.8% and 2.1% in their projections. Against this backdrop, I like the risk-reward profiles of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=2&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=726203945%7C20250916%7C1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> contracts at the 1%, 1.2%, 1.4% and 1.6% thresholds which cost between $0.75 and $0.97. A result at 1.7% or higher, meaningfully beneath the consensus estimate, will deliver a profit to \u201cYes\u201d investors here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"443\" height=\"521\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-Sept-15-FT.jpg\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR FrecastTrader Contract for Canada Consumer Price Index\" class=\"wp-image-230506 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-Sept-15-FT.jpg 443w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-Sept-15-FT-300x353.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 443px) 100vw, 443px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 443px; aspect-ratio: 443\/521;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 15, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes and No\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s retail sales report is expected to arrive at 0.3% month over month (m\/m) and our prediction market is marginally tilted towards a lighter number. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-230503","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Expectations for US Retail Sales, Production, 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