{"id":230478,"date":"2025-09-15T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230478"},"modified":"2025-09-16T04:10:58","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T08:10:58","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-september-15-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-september-15-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of September 15, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Core CPI ticked up to 3.1% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core PPI fell 0.1% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment fell to 55.4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To cut or not to cut? Markets have been weighing each economic data print on the Fed\u2019s balance of risks. As this week\u2019s chart shows, mixed reports on jobs and inflation have sent the scale tipping back and forth, underscoring the difficulty of the Fed\u2019s position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After several months of stronger than expected payroll gains, July\u2019s jobs report showed definitively that hiring momentum had slowed. Last Friday\u2019s August report told a similar story. The U.S. economy added just 22k jobs last month, well below expectations of 75k, and 27k jobs were removed from the past two months. But this weaker labor market hasn\u2019t translated to material disinflation. Immigration policies are contracting the labor supply, putting upward pressure on wage growth, despite the slowdown in hiring. August\u2019s 4.3% unemployment rate is the highest since the pandemic, but well below the 50-year average of 6.1%. On the other hand, Thursday\u2019s CPI report showed core inflation of 3.1%, well above the Fed\u2019s 2% target, and tariffs and OBBBA stimulus could spark an acceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, while the last two jobs reports green light the Fed to cut next week, the margin of error is razor thin. Stock and bond markets might cheer the decision initially, but the longer-term investing implications aren\u2019t so clear. Rather than boosting demand, rate cuts can destroy it as households lose interest income much faster than the cost of debt comes down. Longer-term yields may actually rise, as a cut next week could fuel concerns about inflation and Fed independence. Real assets like infrastructure and diversifying globally could help investors with the tough task of building portfolios resilient to both a growth slowdown and an inflation speedup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1011\" height=\"400\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-15-100604.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-230480 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-15-100604.png 1011w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-15-100604-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-15-100604-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-15-100604-768x304.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1011px) 100vw, 1011px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1011px; aspect-ratio: 1011\/400;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<br>Thought of the week: BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 15, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 15, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights how mixed jobs and inflation data make the Fed\u2019s rate cut decision tough.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":230480,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-230478","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of September 15, 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