{"id":230451,"date":"2025-09-12T13:00:17","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T17:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230451"},"modified":"2025-09-15T02:52:46","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T06:52:46","slug":"small-k-capital-k-or-special-k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/","title":{"rendered":"Small k, Capital K, or Special K?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Sentiment is diverging widely.&nbsp; Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.&nbsp; This morning\u2019s release from the University of Michigan offered another set of gloomy readings about sentiment and expectations.&nbsp; The stock market, riding at all-time highs, barely rippled.&nbsp; It is another sign that we are likely in a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/corporatefinanceinstitute.com\/resources\/economics\/k-shaped-recovery\/\">K-shaped economy<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That construct refers to an economy that is benefitting some even as others suffer.&nbsp; In this case, we believe that those at the higher end of the income and\/or wealth spectrum feel better about their prospects while those at the lower end are feeling worse.&nbsp; Rising asset prices, whether in stocks, gold, crypto, or other items, benefit those who have the financial wherewithal to invest in them.&nbsp; People without those resources are clearly showing concern about tenuous economic conditions, whether via sentiment surveys or the recent underperformance of stores like Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An open question is where the breakpoint lies.&nbsp; I like to think of the vertical line in the \u201cK\u201d as the y-axis of a graph, with income percentiles as the scale.&nbsp; This is why today\u2019s piece leads with the question about which \u201ck\u201d we might be seeing.&nbsp; A small \u201ck\u201d implies that only those with relatively low incomes are feeling stress; a capital \u201cK\u201d implies that the difference occurs at relatively median incomes.&nbsp; Could it be that we\u2019re looking at something like an upside-down small \u201ck\u201d, something like the image below, implying that only those with relatively high incomes are feeling sanguine?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"17\" height=\"35\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-5.png\" alt=\"upside-down small \u201ck\u201d, \" class=\"wp-image-230453 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 17px; aspect-ratio: 17\/35;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at today\u2019s report, something is clearly bothering the survey respondents.&nbsp; All the data is worse than both expectations and last month\u2019s values except for 1-year inflation expectations.&nbsp; Those were in line, but 4.8% inflation would of course be extraordinarily troublesome.&nbsp; Stocks shrugged off yesterday\u2019s CPI report, which revealed a higher than expected headline and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/todays-rally-is-based-on-a-whisker\/\">a stealthy rise in the core<\/a>, but the public seems far from willing to ignore what they perceive as creeping inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"750\" height=\"289\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4.png\" alt=\"University of Michigan Preliminary September Results\" class=\"wp-image-230454 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4.png 750w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4-700x270.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-4-300x116.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 750px; aspect-ratio: 750\/289;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At various times we have shown how 1-year inflation expectations have historically tracked retail gasoline prices.&nbsp; We\u2019ve also shown when they have diverged, noting that the divergences were usually temporary, or perhaps transitory.&nbsp; We currently see one of the largest divergences in recent years, and it shows few signs of reverting to the norm:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations (yellow) vs. AAA Daily National Average Regular Unleaded Gasoline Prices (green); Monthly Data Since January 2010<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"954\" height=\"545\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-1.png\" alt=\"UMich 1-Year Inflation Expectations (yellow) vs. AAA Daily National Average Regular Unleaded Gasoline Prices (green); Monthly Data Since January 2010\" class=\"wp-image-230455 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-1.png 954w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-1-700x400.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-1-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-1-768x439.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 954px) 100vw, 954px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 954px; aspect-ratio: 954\/545;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If these trends persist, with investor sentiment diverging wildly from non-investors, one might expect that the dour views of a significant portion of the population would eventually weigh on stock prices.&nbsp; It certainly seems that they should.&nbsp; But divergences in sentiment can persist for quite some time.&nbsp; And of course there are two ways to close a divergence \u2013 the top can come down or the bottom can come up.&nbsp; Hopefully for investors, it will be the latter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sentiment is diverging widely.\u00a0 Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.\u00a0 This morning\u2019s release from the University of Michigan offered another set of gloomy readings about sentiment and expectations.\u00a0 The stock market, riding at all-time highs, barely rippled.\u00a0 It is another sign that we are likely in a \u201cK-shaped economy\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":230456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[569,16925,7590,8959,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-230451","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-consumer-confidence","15":"tag-inflation-expectations","16":"tag-investor-sentiment","17":"tag-k-shaped-economy","18":"tag-stock-market","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Small k, Capital K, or Special K? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sentiment is diverging widely.\u00a0 Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.\u00a0...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230451\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Small k, Capital K, or Special K? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sentiment is diverging widely.\u00a0 Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.\u00a0 This morning\u2019s release from the University of Michigan offered another set of gloomy readings about sentiment and expectations.\u00a0 The stock market, riding at all-time highs, barely rippled.\u00a0 It is another sign that we are likely in a \u201cK-shaped economy\u201d.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-12T17:00:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-15T06:52:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Small k, Capital K, or Special K?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2025-09-12T17:00:17+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2025-09-15T06:52:46+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 523,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 11,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"consumer confidence\",\n\t                \"inflation expectations\",\n\t                \"investor sentiment\",\n\t                \"k-shaped economy\",\n\t                \"stock market\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Stocks\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Small k, Capital K, or Special K? | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2025-09-12T17:00:17+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2025-09-15T06:52:46+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Sentiment is diverging widely.\u00a0 Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.\u00a0 This morning\u2019s release from the University of Michigan offered another set of gloomy readings about sentiment and expectations.\u00a0 The stock market, riding at all-time highs, barely rippled.\u00a0 It is another sign that we are likely in a \u201cK-shaped economy\u201d.\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\\\/#primaryimage\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"width\": 1000,\n\t            \"height\": 563\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t                        \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t                    },\n\t                    \"query-input\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t                        \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t                        \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t                    }\n\t                }\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"alternateName\": \"IBKR\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"logo\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"width\": 669,\n\t                \"height\": 669,\n\t                \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.\",\n\t            \"sameAs\": [\n\t                \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkr.com\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/steve-sosnick\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Small k, Capital K, or Special K? | Traders' Insight","description":"Sentiment is diverging widely.\u00a0 Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.\u00a0...","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230451\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Small k, Capital K, or Special K? | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"Sentiment is diverging widely.\u00a0 Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.\u00a0 This morning\u2019s release from the University of Michigan offered another set of gloomy readings about sentiment and expectations.\u00a0 The stock market, riding at all-time highs, barely rippled.\u00a0 It is another sign that we are likely in a \u201cK-shaped economy\u201d.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2025-09-12T17:00:17+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-09-15T06:52:46+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Steve Sosnick","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Steve Sosnick","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/"},"author":{"name":"Steve Sosnick","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549"},"headline":"Small k, Capital K, or Special K?","datePublished":"2025-09-12T17:00:17+00:00","dateModified":"2025-09-15T06:52:46+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/"},"wordCount":523,"commentCount":11,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg","keywords":["consumer confidence","inflation expectations","investor sentiment","k-shaped economy","stock market"],"articleSection":["Macro","North America","Region","Securities","Stocks","Text Articles","Traders' Insight"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/","name":"Small k, Capital K, or Special K? | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg","datePublished":"2025-09-12T17:00:17+00:00","dateModified":"2025-09-15T06:52:46+00:00","description":"Sentiment is diverging widely.\u00a0 Stock market sentiment is clearly quite positive, if not outright exuberant; the rest of the country \u2013 not so much.\u00a0 This morning\u2019s release from the University of Michigan offered another set of gloomy readings about sentiment and expectations.\u00a0 The stock market, riding at all-time highs, barely rippled.\u00a0 It is another sign that we are likely in a \u201cK-shaped economy\u201d.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/small-k-capital-k-or-special-k\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg","width":1000,"height":563},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549","name":"Steve Sosnick","description":"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/k-shaped-economy-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=230451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/230451\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/230456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=230451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=230451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=230451"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=230451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}