{"id":230230,"date":"2025-09-09T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230230"},"modified":"2025-09-10T05:04:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T09:04:02","slug":"careful-what-you-wish-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/careful-what-you-wish-for\/","title":{"rendered":"Careful What You Wish For"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The key economic report of the morning was one that is normally of little interest to most market practitioners.  The Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision arrived at 10AM EDT today and showed that job growth in the US was even weaker than thought.  While that figure does nothing to dampen the FOMC\u2019s likelihood of cutting rates at next week\u2019s meeting, it doesn\u2019t materially bolster it either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chair Powell\u2019s recent Jackson Hole speech<\/a> certainly showed a shift in his mindset.  To sum it up briefly, his stance moved from \u201cgive me reasons why we need to cut rates\u201d to \u201cgive me reasons why we shouldn\u2019t<\/em><\/strong> cut rates\u201d.  Rate cut expectations were already firmly in place \u2013 they were actually higher in the week prior to his address than immediately after \u2013 but market concerns were assuaged somewhat by the Chair\u2019s apparent willingness to prioritize bolstering the \u201cmaximum stable employment\u201d portion of the dual mandate over concerns about \u201cstable prices\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, this morning\u2019s announced preliminary revision of -911,000 jobs<\/a> might have seemed like welcome news to those hoping for aggressive cuts.  But they weren\u2019t necessarily taken that way.  Even though all economic data is somewhat backwards looking \u2013 we\u2019re always looking at figures compiled in the prior week or month \u2013 this number is especially so.  The period in question was from April 2024 through March 2025, meaning it is 6-18 months ago.  Indeed, that revision, if it holds, would wipe out about half the announced job creation in that period, but it is not necessarily relevant to today\u2019s labor picture.  It certainly doesn\u2019t brighten it, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the age and magnitude of the revision, we have to question whether the Fed is already behind the curve when it comes to labor.  If that is the case, lowering interest rates by a few basis points might be insufficient to offer immediate results.  The follow-through from rate cuts to hiring is indirect at best.  Yes, companies should find a more favorable climate for borrowing, expansion, and the like, but it is difficult to expect that hordes of them will go out and hire workers whether the first cut is 25 or 50 basis points.  Rate cuts send a valuable signal to employers but are not necessarily sufficient incentive to change their longer-term behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also need to wonder if investors\u2019 enthusiasm for cuts is obscuring the other message that Powell delivered in Wyoming.  At the time, we noted that the FOMC\u2019s Statement on Longer Run Goals<\/a> more closely anchored its inflation target to 2%, saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve\u2019s statutory maximum employment and price stability mandates. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee\u2019s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two things are important here.  First, they view stable prices as a key to promoting the employment portion of the dual mandate.  One can assert that even if implied otherwise, price stability outweighs stable employment.  Second, price gains have been steadily above 2%.  They\u2019re not far above 2%, but they are closer to 3% than 2% and as we saw with Core PCE, they\u2019re inching higher, not lower.  Even if this week\u2019s PPI and CPI reports come in as expected, they would be above the FOMC\u2019s target.  That might not be enough to forestall a cut next week but could dampen the committee\u2019s enthusiasm for a succession of rapid cuts thereafter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, if you\u2019re hoping for an economy weak enough to justify massive rate cuts, be careful what you wish for<\/a>.  Stock investors should always root for at least a decent, if not great economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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