{"id":230149,"date":"2025-09-08T10:34:46","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T14:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=230149"},"modified":"2025-09-09T05:05:46","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T09:05:46","slug":"trading-setbacks-during-monthly-transitions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/trading-setbacks-during-monthly-transitions\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Setbacks during Monthly Transitions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This month now marks the sixth time during the last thirteen months that there has been some kind of trading difficulty at the beginning of a new month.  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s a small sample, but 46% of the time during the last thirteen months there has been some kind of market stumble.<\/strong>  And some of these stumbles are not insignificant …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market was lower by 6.1% during the July to August transition (July to August 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market lost 4.2% during the August to September transition (Aug to September 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market declined by 11.2% during the March to April transition (March to April 2025 — Liberation Day trading).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in the most recent monthly transitions \u2013 a 1.6% decline from July to August and a 70-basis point loss from August to September. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those numbers represent performance for the S&P 500 from month-end to the lowest levels at the beginning of the new month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is this occurring?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All sorts of investors tend to move either at the end of a month or the beginning of a new month.<\/strong>  And these movements have little to do with company-specific fundamentals.  They can, however, have an outsized impact on market volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, who are these investors?  Quantitative investors for one.  There are a tremendous number of quant strategies used to manage portfolios, and many of those strategies are designed to systematically rebalance once a month.<\/strong>  It’s a combination of math and consistency.  And a “clean” time to undertake such a systematic rebalance is month-end.  Or the beginning of the month.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asset Allocators also tend to move at the beginning or end of the month.<\/strong>  As an example, think deployment of 401k contributions following pay cycles.  And asset managers of various stripes, including ETFs, make use of end-of-month (EOM) index options to manage flows and true up positions.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Together, these activities can, and often do, generate volatility during or exiting month-to-month transitions.  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s the million-dollar question.  How do we know when a new month stumble will be a dip that will be bought or when the market will continue to tumble lower?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You’re familiar with the saying that there are no guarantees other than death and taxes \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, in the six most recent market stumbles during these monthly transitions (dating back to August 2024) our algorithm for demand was at neutral or higher at month-end (We measure demand in the marketplace by an algorithm that we call Sentiment).   <\/strong>In other words, behind the scenes there was healthy demand for equities as Sentiment was at neutral or higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To summarize, having trading hiccups at the beginning of a new month is nothing new.  <\/strong>1) These dips are usually bought, thanks in part to relentless ETF flows (a subject for another blog).  2) Our Broad Market Sentiment algorithm provides you with a tool to know what demand is in the marketplace ahead of these monthly transitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would you like to learn more?\u00a0 Please visit us at marketstructureedge.com<\/a>.\u00a0 You can join us for a weekly demo<\/a> or get our daily market desk notes for free.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This month now marks the sixth time during the last thirteen months that there has been some kind of trading difficulty at the beginning of a new month. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1675,"featured_media":224910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[339,338,341,9563],"tags":[1006,494],"contributors-categories":[15343],"class_list":{"0":"post-230149","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-ibkr-quant-news","9":"category-quant-development","10":"category-options-quant","11":"tag-fintech","12":"tag-quant","13":"contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrading Setbacks during Monthly Transitions | IBKR Quant<\/title>\n<meta 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