{"id":229944,"date":"2025-09-03T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229944"},"modified":"2025-09-04T04:18:19","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T08:18:19","slug":"troubled-times-havent-worried-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/troubled-times-havent-worried-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Troubled times haven\u2019t worried stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pressure on the Fed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The White House is attempting to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, potentially threatening its independence<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation estimates<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Core inflation climbed higher but met consensus estimates, which reinforces expectations for a September rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nvidia expectations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Earnings grew, but the stock declined after Nvidia noted it expected to see revenue growth slow in the coming quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 closed out August near an all-time high,1<\/a><\/sup> defying a narrative that, just weeks ago, may have appeared less favorable. Coming into the month, many investors were bracing for seasonal weakness, the onset of new tariffs, elevated valuations,2<\/a><\/sup> and even political noise surrounding the Federal Reserve<\/a>\u2019s (Fed\u2019s) independence. Yet, markets pressed higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What drove the resilience? US economic growth remained firm,3<\/a><\/sup> and expectations by many have been rising that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting. These tailwinds may have helped markets look past the noise and climb the proverbial \u201dwall of worry.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we head into September and October, we\u2019ll likely hear echoes of the same concerns, including seasonality, policy risks, and valuations. But we see little evidence that the cycle is ending. Macro data and market signals continue to suggest otherwise. <\/a>As Green Day sang, \u201cWake Me Up When September Ends,\u201d may be a fitting motto for those concerned about volatility in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Cook walk away?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Political pressure on the Fed ratcheted up last week, as the White House shifted from verbally attacking the central bank to taking outright action to alter its composition. In an unprecedented move, President Trump recently announced that he was firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time in US history that a sitting president has attempted to remove a sitting Fed Governor. The White House cited claims of mortgage fraud as justification for Cook\u2019s \u201cfor cause\u201d removal, despite her not having been formally charged of a crime, let alone convicted of one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response to the attempted firing and criminal allegations against her, Governor Cook stated that she had \u201cno intention of being bullied to step down from my position\u201d and subsequently filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration. The case is likely headed to the Supreme Court, where prosecutors will face the challenging task of proving that Cook acted with intent to deceive and that her conduct resulted in material harm \u2014 an argument that has historically been difficult to make for similar accusations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the stakes of the case couldn\u2019t be higher. If the Trump Administration successfully removes Cook, then they would get to nominate her replacement, and in doing so, obtain a majority on the seven-person Board of Governors. While this would not necessarily lead to the end of Fed independence, Cook\u2019s removal could set a dangerous precedent, potentially opening the door for more government interference in monetary policy decisions moving forward. In the shorter term, it would also likely alter the direction of monetary policy towards a bias for lower rates. Any further action that erodes public trust in the Fed and damages the central bank\u2019s credibility, however, could have more serious ramifications for markets and the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politicians would be wise to remember that an independent central bank is vital to keeping long-term interest rates<\/a> contained and inflation<\/a> expectations well anchored. If the Fed is ever perceived as being under the control of the government, it could potentially result in a substantial weakening of the US dollar, a rise in US borrowing costs, and a meaningful pick-up in inflation \u2014 clearly an outcome that would hurt the economy and investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fortunately, financial markets have continued to see this as a low-probability risk, and we would agree. The US dollar and the 30-year US Treasury yield ended last week largely unchanged and long-term inflation expectations moved only slightly higher.4<\/a><\/sup> The fact that the S&P 500 ended the week near a new all-time high, and corporate credit spreads close to historic lows,5<\/a><\/sup> illustrates the risk of making investment decisions based solely on the news cycle. While we continue to be bullish on US stocks, investors understandably concerned about allocating to the US could consider shifting focus to compelling opportunities overseas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slightly higher inflation expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Core inflation climbed 2.9% year-over-year, in line with expectations but likely still above the Fed\u2019s comfort zone.6<\/a><\/sup> Despite the elevated reading, the fact that it met consensus estimates could reinforce market expectations for a rate cut in September.7<\/a><\/sup> Price pressures are expected to rise further due to the implementation of tariffs, raising the critical question of whether this represents a one-off price shock or the beginning of sustained inflation. We view the tariffs as a transitory shock and believe the Fed will interpret them similarly. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the US has been deteriorating, which is an unsurprising development as prices rise. Inflation expectations in the bond<\/a> market have been edging higher,8<\/a><\/sup> while current levels still suggest relative price stability. The trend warrants close monitoring. A sustained move higher in inflation expectations could prompt a shift in Fed policy and serve as a cautionary signal for both the business and market cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nvidia expects slower revenue growth<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US markets managed to make new highs even as Nvidia, the largest stock by market capitalization, slipped after delivering earnings growth of a mere 56% year-over-year.9<\/a><\/sup> By any objective measure, the trailing earnings from Nvidia were fantastic. But that\u2019s not necessarily good enough these days. The scale of its revenue and earnings have been falling for several quarters now, and Nvidia noted it expected to see revenue growth slow in the coming quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To repeat slower earnings growth from Nvidia and other mega-cap names isn\u2019t something to fear. It\u2019s normal. It will happen. It perhaps means at least considering rotating allocations within US stocks to some areas that have been less well-loved, however.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

French basket case?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The government of prime minister Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou will face a confidence vote in the National Assembly on September 8. Confidence votes aren\u2019t exactly uncommon in France, but the slightly unusual thing with this one is that Bayrou called it. Betting markets, such as Polymarket, suggest a nearly 90% chance he loses the confidence vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like many governments around the world France is attempting to push through spending cuts needed to put it back on a sustainable fiscal path. These fiscal pressures have been felt in the French bond market. The yield on 5-year French government bonds has risen above the yield on 5-year Italian government bonds \u2014 something that hasn’t happened since the euro was introduced in 1999.10<\/a><\/sup> Also, nine French issuers have corporate bonds outstanding, which now trade tighter than similar maturity government bonds.11<\/a><\/sup> Investors are saying they have greater confidence in French companies than in the French government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we don\u2019t see reason for panic and don\u2019t think a default is imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What to watch this week<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Date<\/strong><\/th>Region<\/strong><\/th>Economic release or event<\/strong><\/th>Why it matters<\/strong><\/th><\/tr>
Sep. 2<\/td>US<\/td>ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index<\/a> (PMI)<\/td>Key gauge of US manufacturing health and business conditions<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Construction spending<\/td>Indicates investment trends in real estate and infrastructure<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>Eurozone<\/td>Final Manufacturing PMI<\/td>Reflects industrial activity and economic momentum in the eurozone<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>UK<\/td>Final Manufacturing PMI<\/td>Signals the health of the UK manufacturing sector.<\/td><\/tr>
Sep. 3<\/td>US<\/td>Factory orders<\/td>Measures demand for manufactured goods \u2014 leading indicator of production<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>JOLTS Job Openings<\/td>Offers insight into labor market tightness and hiring trends<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Beige Book<\/td>Qualitative snapshot of economic conditions across Fed districts.<\/td><\/tr>
Sep. 4<\/td>US<\/td>ADP Employment Report<\/td>Private payroll data ahead of official jobs report; influences market sentiment<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>ISM Services PMI<\/td>Measures service sector activity, which comprises the bulk of US GDP<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Initial jobless claims<\/td>Weekly indicator of labor market health<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>Canada<\/td>Interest rate decision<\/td>Signals Bank of Canada’s monetary policy stance<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>Eurozone<\/td>Final Services PMI<\/td>Reflects service sector performance across the eurozone<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>UK<\/td>Final Services PMI<\/td>Indicates the strength of UK\u2019s service economy<\/td><\/tr>
Sept. 5<\/td>US<\/td>Non-farm payrolls<\/td>Most watched labor market report; key for Fed policy decisions<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Unemployment rate<\/td>Core measure of labor market slack<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Average hourly earnings<\/td>Tracks wage inflation, a key input for monetary policy<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>US<\/td>Global Supply Chain Pressure Index<\/td>Assesses bottlenecks and inflationary pressures in global trade<\/td><\/tr>
 <\/td>UK<\/td>Construction PMI<\/td>Indicates activity and sentiment in the UK construction sector<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted September 2, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Troubled times haven\u2019t worried stocks<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnotes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025, based on the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 30, 2025, based on US second quarter GDP.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025, based on the 30-year US Treasury rate and the US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US dollar versus a trade-weighted basket of currencies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025, based on the option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 31, 2025, based on the core personal consumption expenditure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025, based on the fed funds implied probability rate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025, based on the 3-year US Treasury inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 27, 2025, second quarter earnings as of June 30, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025, based on the 5-year government bond yields of France and Italy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Source: Bloomberg L.P., Aug. 29, 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NA4786563<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Image: Leonardo Patrizi \/ Getty<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investments cannot be made directly in an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes US dollar-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility, and financial issuers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fixed income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may be unable to meet interest and\/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer\u2019s credit rating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Credit spread is the difference in yield between bonds of similar maturity but with different credit quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Gross domestic product (GDP) is a broad indicator of a region\u2019s economic activity, measuring the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced in that region over a specified time period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    An investment cannot be made into an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Breakeven inflation is the difference in yield between a nominal Treasury security and a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security of the same maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is based on Institute of Supply Management surveys of non-manufacturing supply executives nationwide, monitors business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Market cycles are trends or patterns that may exist in a given market environment, allowing some securities or asset classes to outperform others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Option-adjusted spread (OAS) is the yield spread that must be added to a benchmark yield curve to discount a security\u2019s payments to match its market price, using a dynamic pricing model that accounts for embedded options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The price-to-earnings (P\/E) ratio measures a stock\u2019s valuation by dividing its share price by its earnings per share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indexes (PMI) are based on monthly surveys of companies worldwide and gauge business conditions within the manufacturing and services sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The S&P 500\u00ae Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Spread represents the difference between two values or asset returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The fed funds implied probability rate refers to the likelihood of future changes to the Federal Reserve’s target fed funds rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The US Dollar Index measures the value of the US dollar relative to the majority of its most significant trading partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of Aug. 29, 2025. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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